Civil War in Syria

[Cory]

Oh goody, another oil war.

Aren't you such a rebel?

But anyways Russia and/or China will probably veto any meaningful intervention. 

[Cory]

I think in all likelihood we are already sending the Syrian rebels weapons and other supplies in secret. Probably via Saudi and other Gulf middle men.

[Cory]

Carter singlehandedly let him fall.

This is patently false. What would you have us do, invade Persia to prop up the Shah?

[Cory]

That's been clear ever since the Soviets Russians said last year that they weren't going to take him in if he decided to flee.  He has no other choice now.  If he stops fighting, he's dead.

I wonder if it really came down to it Russia would arrange for Belarus to take Assad in if he falls? Belarus doesn't have really anything to loose by taking him in, although it's clear that the Russians are already jockeying not to alienate the new Syria more then they need to.

[Cory]

Russia's sending Assad advanced ASMs.

Doesn't surprise me. Russia can't just allow it's ally to be overtaken because helping them wouldn't be "moral" in the eyes of the West.

[Cory]

I think the Syrian Loyalists have promised reward to Hezbollah for their assistance in the war. In the article posted by Starwatcher it says that Hezbollah personnel are starting to man Syrian tanks and armored vehicles. I think Hezbollah is gaining the troops experience in using these weapons and will eventually incorporate tanks into their "army". We have to remember that Hezbollah is practically a nation-state with a standing army at this point.

Also keep in mind that Qusair is a key supply route for weapons and equipment from Syrian into Lebanon. Hezbollah is as a result "forced" to intervene to hold Qusair for the Loyalists to keep the route open.

[Cory]

Here is a more alarming version of this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It was actually kind of interesting until I noticed it was World Net Daily.

[Cory]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/12/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE96B08A20130712

FSA (moderate rebels) declare war on Islamist rebels.

It's like the Spanish Civil War kind of. With the loyalists and rebels trading places of course. Like the Nationalists, Assad leads a unified front consisting of most of the military and almost all of the elite/crack units. The Rebels have a fractured coalition that can hardly keep from fighting itself lat alone overcome the quality issues they face in comparison to the Assad troops.

The Rebels are like the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War. With the anarchists, communists, socialists/republicans and Trotskyites all fighting each other as well as the Fascists.

A similar comparison could be made to the Russian Civil War, with the Rebels being the divided Whites and the Bolsheviks the unified Assad Loyalists.

The side with better unification and organization typically wins these kind of Civil Wars.

[Cory]

I think this situation is more grey then people are making it out to be. As far as the Loyalists are concerned they are fighting for a secular Syria against the Islamic Fundamentalist dominated Rebels backed by foreign fighters who wish to transform Syria into the next Afghanistan. I hope nobody is naive enough to thing the "NTC" folks have any real sway in the Rebel movement on the ground. This war has taken on a new dimension. It's not Assad vs The People anymore. It's Secular Urban/Shia vs Islamic Conservative Rural Sunnis.

I can't help but think that if I were in Syria I would support the Loyalists.

[Cory]

That's flat out false. By all estimates Islamists make up no more than 20% of rebel forces. Plus the main rebels have been killing more Islamists than Assad's forces lately. I still hold all Assad supporters to be bloodthirsty thugs.

What a silly thing to say. History isn't as black and white as you seem to think. Real life is grey.

[Cory]

So then what about people who supported Franco and Pinochet because of "OMG COMMUNISM!!!11!!!"

They were supporting those regime because they preferred them to socialism. Not because they were "murderous thugs" who liked killing because it was fun. There are people like that in every cause.

[Cory]

Secretary Kerry's statement seems to indicate that it is a matter of when, not if the USA intervenes militarily.

[Cory]

The Assad regime's forces are just one step away from taking the major city of Aleppo back, according to a few Turkish newspapers.

Wonderful news!

Also can we all stop pretending to think there is any hope of the "moderate" Syrian rebels becoming a force to reckon with, let alone a serious possibility for victory in the war?

It's Assad or IS/Al-Nusra. I'm sorry but that's just the way it is. It wasn't like that at first, but it is now.

[Cory]

There were never any moderate rebels. Most of them were not Syrian. They are mercenaries for the West and Saudi Arabia and other corrupt Gulf States. Bashar Assad is one of the few sane leaders in that region who respects religious minorities such as Christians. The United States and all it's allies such as Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia supported the rebels. The media doesn't tell you  the truth unless you listen to Russia Today.

How much do you make on a per post basis? I'm honestly curious.

[Cory]

First SAA advancing units have reached the besieged regime-hold part of Deir ez-Zor. Technically the siege might be considered broken, although it will take some time until the SAA manages to fully secure its supply lines.

Edit: Premature, but will probably be true tomorrow, more or less.

Glorious news.

[Cory]

Al-Nusra is good enough, as they weaken Assad to where he can’t crush the Syrian National Council or the Syrian Democratic Council, the two good rebel groups. Ideally, Assad will waste enough forces on them for George Sabra, Suheir Atassi, Moaz al-Khatib, and Abdulbaset Sieda. Ideally, the SNC, SDC, and Rojava would sign an alliance against Assad and ISIS.

Here is a rough map of the situation in Syria/Iraq right now:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/11/Syrian%2C_Iraqi%2C_and_Lebanese_insurgencies.png

Can we please drop this fantasy notion of the Syrian Rebels somehow defeating the Assad regime? Especially considering they have Russian support it just Isn't. Gonna. Happen.

[Cory]

Looks like Daraa is up next, and I imagine Idlib up next. When Assad goes after the Turkish backed rebels in Afrin I wonder how far Turkey is willing to go in their involvement.

I would imagine the Assad forces would liquidate the Hama cauldron before turning North to Idlib.

[Cory]

Thank Goodness the noose is tightening around the neck of the so-called "rebels" (who are nothing more than stone-aged Islamo-Fascists). About time the US fully abandons these fu**ers and joins the right side in the final battle for Syria.

Yes. We will bring them into our Glorious New Order.

[Cory]

In other news the SDF still hasn't taken Hajin or Ash Sha 'fah. I wonder what is preventing them from clearing out the last ISIS pocket left.

They have started a "final" offensive there today, attacking the region from all sides.

But the Kurds still think it will take at least 2-3 months, because:

A WWII army would take this area in days against an Islamist militia.

Just finish this already.

[Cory]

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.

Technically false.

[Cory]

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.

Technically false.

Explain.  We all know Russia has been effectively serving as Bashar al-Assad's air force. 

Exactly, they are there with government permission.

[Cory]

IS has made big gains today in the Euphrates valley, killing dozens of Kurdish/US-backed forces.

Ugh.

[Cory]

Uh, it pretty much already has been. They have not controlled any territory since 2017.

Patently false.

[Cory]

Technically there is still fighting in some holdout areas along the river, but yes the battle is won.

[Cory]

The Assad Army is making progress in Hama/Idlib, taking key towns on the frontline and throwing back the Turks and their Islamist so-called "rebel" backers.

The Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) Tiger Forces launched a large-scale assault on the key town of Kafr Naboudeh this morning.

Backed by heavy artillery, the Tiger Forces were able to penetrate the militant lines at the southern part of the town, paving the way for their troops to enter.

Shortly after entering the town, the Syrian Arab Army was engaged in a fierce battle with the Turkish-backed National Liberation Front (NLF) front troops at the southern axis of the town.

Following the fierce clashes, the Syrian Arab Army was able to overrun the militant defenses and impose full control over Kafr Naboudeh for the first time since the first years of the war.

The capture of Kafr Naboudeh is a major victory for the Syrian Arab Army, as this town is located near the Al-Ghaab Plain and the southwestern axis of the Idlib Governorate.

For the Turkish-backed rebels, the loss of Kafr Naboudeh now leaves them in serious trouble near the historical town of Qal’at Al-Madiq, which is also near the Idlib Governorate’s southern axis.

On Monday, the Syrian Arab Army kicked off their long-awaited offensive in northwestern Hama. This offensive would get off to a great start for the Syrian military, as they managed to capture two towns and the key hilltop of Tal Uthman.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-steamrolls-turkish-backed-rebels-to-capture-key-town/

Good.

The Turkish invaders need to be kicked out of Syria and Idlib needs to be put under Assad-control as quickly as possible.

Hear hear! Throw out the radical Islamists!