WA-GAY MARRIAGE: Washington, get your gay horses going (and married)

[Alcon]

As promised, a day earlier than I promised:

New effort to legalize same-sex marriage begins

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016755891_gaymarriage13m.html

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[RI]

Why didn't you just put this in the WA thread we already have?

[Alcon]

Considering the chance this goes to ballot is high, I don't want to force those only interested in gay marriage to listen to us complain about Tim Sheldon

Actually, I do, but they'd probably resent that.

I will probably fold coverage in if this topic doesn't heat up.

[greenforest32]

I think it's probably better to make a single thread for gay marriage developments (polling, initiatives, and referendums) in general rather than state specific ones as this issue is everywhere.

[Alcon]

I think it's probably better to make a single thread for gay marriage developments (polling, initiatives, and referendums) in general rather than state specific ones as this issue is everywhere.

I'm not against that, I guess, but it would potentially make election nights really confusing.

[greenforest32]

I think it's probably better to make a single thread for gay marriage developments (polling, initiatives, and referendums) in general rather than state specific ones as this issue is everywhere.

I'm not against that, I guess, but it would potentially make election nights really confusing.

How so?

[Alcon]

I think it's probably better to make a single thread for gay marriage developments (polling, initiatives, and referendums) in general rather than state specific ones as this issue is everywhere.

I'm not against that, I guess, but it would potentially make election nights really confusing.

How so?

If any states are in the same time zone (or within two, really) it could turn into a mess of unidentified results, confusing questions, and that annoying thing where you can't actually reply because too many posts are being made at the same time.

It's happened before, and it drove me crazy, but there's a chance I'm alone I suppose

[Joe Republic]

What's Gregoire's position?

[Alcon]

What's Gregoire's position?

Public position:  As of the 2009 domestic partnership bill signing, she "has to see a bill on her desk" and "wants to see a bill on her desk."  She has no publicly endorsed gay marriage.

Private position:  Totally for it

[CultureKing]

Great! While it definitely will end up being decided at the ballot box I am all for pushing this through.

Also I can't stand Tim Sheldon, he's worse than some of the republicans.

[Seattle]

Yay! Exciting news! It will only make 2012 more interesting.

[Ogre Mage]

Great news.  I agree this is the right time to push for it, especially as McKenna is against gay marriage and I believe Gov. McKenna would veto it.  Inslee is a gay marriage supporter but his poll numbers vs. McKenna are shaky right now.  Recent polling suggests a gay marriage bill could survive an initiative challenge in WA.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

It's probably not going to pass. Every time people vote on gay marriage dircetly, it's illegal. All six states were made by court decisions, except NY which wasn't voted on.

[Meeker]

I think this is going to be really tough to get out of the State Senate. Sheldon and Hargrove will definitely vote no and then the Republicans only need to pick off one of the moderates (Hatfield, Kastama, Haugen, Hobbs, maybe Tom or Shin).

The only Republican I could see even considering voting for it is Litzow.

ETA: I think the "Initiative to the Legislature" option the marijuana folks are doing is probably the best strategic option here FWIW.

[Smash255]

It's probably not going to pass. Every time people vote on gay marriage dircetly, it's illegal. All six states were made by court decisions, except NY which wasn't voted on.

New Hampshire, Vermont were through the Legislature.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

It's probably not going to pass. Every time people vote on gay marriage dircetly, it's illegal. All six states were made by court decisions, except NY which wasn't voted on.

New Hampshire, Vermont were through the Legislature.

Thanks. The point still stands, though. (Everytime the people dirctly vote, it fails.)

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

It's probably not going to pass. Every time people vote on gay marriage dircetly, it's illegal. All six states were made by court decisions, except NY which wasn't voted on.

New Hampshire, Vermont were through the Legislature.

Thanks. The point still stands, though. (Everytime the people dirctly vote, it fails.)

So far. I think people underestimate how much opinions on this have changed in just the last couple of years. Even in 2008 and 2009 it required some of the most sickening, dishonest, and cruel political campaigns in recent memory to make it barely fail in California and Maine.

[RI]

It's probably not going to pass. Every time people vote on gay marriage dircetly, it's illegal. All six states were made by court decisions, except NY which wasn't voted on.

New Hampshire, Vermont were through the Legislature.

Thanks. The point still stands, though. (Everytime the people dirctly vote, it fails.)

So far. I think people underestimate how much opinions on this have changed in just the last couple of years. Even in 2008 and 2009 it required some of the most sickening, dishonest, and cruel political campaigns in recent memory to make it barely fail in California and Maine.

Yeah, plus Washington has already approved domestic partnerships by popular vote in a tough year for liberals. It could vote for gay marriage, but it would be pretty close, I have to think.

[Seattle]

It would be very close and it would rely on turn out from Thurston, Whatcom, and King counties. Especially Seattle's close suburbs, if Bellevue/Sammamish/Kent/Auburn areas vote for it 55%+, that bodes well for it passing.

[RI]

It would be very close and it would rely on turn out from Thurston, Whatcom, and King counties. Especially Seattle's close suburbs, if Bellevue/Sammamish/Kent/Auburn areas vote for it 55%+, that bodes well for it passing.

Yeah, it would need at least 60%-65% of the vote in King County. R-71 had 67% and it passed by 6%. I presume the rest of the counties would be across the board slightly more against such a vote than R-71. I could easily see only King, Jefferson, San Juan, Thurston, and maybe Whatcom voting for it.

[Alcon]

It would be very close and it would rely on turn out from Thurston, Whatcom, and King counties. Especially Seattle's close suburbs, if Bellevue/Sammamish/Kent/Auburn areas vote for it 55%+, that bodes well for it passing.

Yeah, it would need at least 60%-65% of the vote in King County. R-71 had 67% and it passed by 6%. I presume the rest of the counties would be across the board slightly more against such a vote than R-71. I could easily see only King, Jefferson, San Juan, Thurston, and maybe Whatcom voting for it.

Yep, it really only needs four counties to pass (King, Jefferson, San Juan and Thurston.)  I expect Whatcom too, since it will be more favorable with Obama on the ballot, is my guess.  Kitsap and Island are the real tipping-point counties.  If it's up in Clallam, Snohomish or Skagit, it'll almost certainly pass.  On the other hand, if Thurston comes in early as very competitive, it's probably game over.

[Seattle]

I think Snohomish is more likely to pass it than Kitsap or Island.

The order I would put after the usual suspects of King, Jefferson, San Juan, Thurston, and Whatcom are Snohomish, Island/Kitsap, Skagit, then Clallam.

[Alcon]

I think Snohomish is more likely to pass it than Kitsap or Island.

The order I would put after the usual suspects of King, Jefferson, San Juan, Thurston, and Whatcom are Snohomish, Island/Kitsap, Skagit, then Clallam.

I'm just basing this all on Referendum 71's results.  Harder to tell in an election year, although you may be right:  The conservative areas of Snohomish (middle-class and exurban) probably had decent turnout already in 2009, while the conservative area of Island (military-heavy Oak Harbor) probably has a lot of Presidential-only voters.

If the measure wins in most of the swing counties outside the Liberal Four, I think it'll be solid.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Besides, winning a referendum would enable gay-marriage backers to deflate somewhat the charge that this is all a result of liberul-eeleets.

[Alcon]

Besides, winning a referendum would enable gay-marriage backers to deflate somewhat the charge that this is all a result of liberul-eeleets.

Indeed.  Everyone knows Seattle doesn't win elections, and it's kind of awkward to engage in King County-bashing when your newly elected GOP state reps are in the gay-friendly Eastside of the county.