Scott Walker recall goes live

[Grad Students are the Worst]

An n=406 poll with a +5% lead isn't really "dominating"; it's within the MoE.

[Torie]

An n=406 poll with a +5% lead isn't really "dominating"; it's within the MoE.

Yes, but if the poll is accurate, while the odds that the leader will win are less than 95% (or is it 98% - (I can't remember what percentage is two standard deviations out and which three)?), they probably are at least 80%-85%, enough to make it a "likely" call in my opinion, if the poll is accurate.

[AmericanNation]

The dems have basically given up "campaigning" as they have no  chance to win that way. 
They have a bunch of out of state operatives driving around vans in Milwaukee and Madison so they can deliver warm bodies to early absentee vote.  Their has reportedly been 100,000 early absentee ballots so far (in two days) compared to 200,000ish in the 2010 election. 
It is a little concerning because a disinterested uniformed vote is worth as much as the opposite.  However, the side that doesn't have to drag a majority of it's voters to the polls has a type of advantage.         

[AmericanNation]

The campaign has basically turned into:
 the Walker side citing dozens and dozens of facts
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIUWlS4FwBk

vs.

The Barrett side making wild accusations and claims that can't be or haven't been substantiated.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEZ-IaUU7Zk&list=UUHESYehMLDoSbTpk8apKiEA&index=1&feature=plcp

and Walker is a "Rock Star" which makes dems uber jealous. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiUaq5eGJlw&list=UUHESYehMLDoSbTpk8apKiEA&index=4&feature=plcp

[krazen1211]

Walker +12 here.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/05/24/turnout

[Torie]

The dems have basically given up "campaigning" as they have no  chance to win that way. 
They have a bunch of out of state operatives driving around vans in Milwaukee and Madison so they can deliver warm bodies to early absentee vote.  Their has reportedly been 100,000 early absentee ballots so far (in two days) compared to 200,000ish in the 2010 election. 
It is a little concerning because a disinterested uniformed vote is worth as much as the opposite.  However, the side that doesn't have to drag a majority of it's voters to the polls has a type of advantage.         

It's "uninterested" actually. "Disinterested" means unbiased, like a judge is supposed to be. You really all need to go to law school, to learn about, inter alia, mootness and disinterestedness.

[AmericanNation]

The dems have basically given up "campaigning" as they have no  chance to win that way. 
They have a bunch of out of state operatives driving around vans in Milwaukee and Madison so they can deliver warm bodies to early absentee vote.  Their has reportedly been 100,000 early absentee ballots so far (in two days) compared to 200,000ish in the 2010 election. 
It is a little concerning because a disinterested uniformed vote is worth as much as the opposite.  However, the side that doesn't have to drag a majority of it's voters to the polls has a type of advantage.         

It's "uninterested" actually. "Disinterested" means unbiased, like a judge is supposed to be. You really all need to go to law school, to learn about, inter alia, mootness and disinterestedness.

I actually paused on uninterested and backspaced over it.  I wanted to take Latin just for that type of thing, but it wasn't available/workable. 

[Grad Students are the Worst]

An n=406 poll with a +5% lead isn't really "dominating"; it's within the MoE.

Yes, but if the poll is accurate, while the odds that the leader will win are less than 95% (or is it 98% - (I can't remember what percentage is two standard deviations out and which three)?), they probably are at least 80%-85%, enough to make it a "likely" call in my opinion, if the poll is accurate.

It's 95%, yeah.  A +/-5% MoE applies to both values, so the full MoE of here (if I'm not mis-remembering my stats) is double the margin of the poll.  I think statistical significance is an annoying concept because, as you say, it misleads people into thinking a poll is only worthwhile if it reaches statistical significance.  It's not.  It's very useful to know there's an 80% chance of a lead, especially if you have multiple polls saying the same thing.  However, I'd say "well more than a 1-in-20 chance that a poll's lead is solely based on statistical noise" doesn't reasonably translate into "dominating."  Nor does +5%, really, even if it was a perfect poll with no MoE.

[krazen1211]

Great turnout piece on Wisconsin.



http://www.polisci.wisc.edu/Uploads/Documents/wisc/fowler-turnout-was-the-key-factor-in-the-april-2011-wisconsin-supreme-court.pdf




The Republicans nowadays are putting up enormous landslide margins in Waukesha, Washington, Ozuakee, and suburban Milwaukee. Had George W. Bush done so he would have won the state.

Dem turnout in Madison was abnormally high, and Dem turnout in Milwaukee City was abnormally low. Of course those net out.


No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.

[AmericanNation]

No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.

Yea, outside of Milwaukee and Madison Barrett is a joke. 

The growth of the 'WOW' counties  (Waukesha, Ozuakee, Washington) may eventually completely counterbalance Milwaukee and Madison.     

I Noticed the 'Norwegian Classic ethnic settlement areas' Went 47% for Walker in 2010.  It isn't all that important, but I am often frustrated that these areas are moving so incredibly slow toward the republican party.  Would it kill them to pick up the pace?!  Once they become majority GOP the western congressional district around La Crosse will flip and every region of the state will be majority republican -- except Dane County.   

[Torie]

No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.

Yea, outside of Milwaukee and Madison Barrett is a joke.  

The growth of the 'WOW' counties  (Waukesha, Ozuakee, Washington) may eventually completely counterbalance Milwaukee and Madison.      

I Noticed the 'Norwegian Classic ethnic settlement areas' Went 47% for Walker in 2010.  It isn't all that important, but I am often frustrated that these areas are moving so incredibly slow toward the republican party.  Would it kill them to pick up the pace?!  Once they become majority GOP the western congressional district around La Crosse will flip and every region of the state will be majority republican -- except Dane County.    

Indeed, and speaking about trends, here is the Leip's trend map for Wisconsin for 2008.  You can see it is just awash with glorious shades of red, with only those pesky "Norwegian" regions (along with that food stamp nation Indian reservation, and what is that commie-lib county again just west of Milwaukee?) refusing to get about the business of gradually weaning themselves from the socialist agenda.  Oh wait a minute, Leips thinks blue is red, and red is blue because he's color blind doesn't he?  Hmmm. Well back to predicting who Romney's VP candidate will be and how each and every county in the nation will go this November and by what margin I guess. That probably might be more productive than this.  

[AmericanNation]

No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.

Yea, outside of Milwaukee and Madison Barrett is a joke.  

The growth of the 'WOW' counties  (Waukesha, Ozuakee, Washington) may eventually completely counterbalance Milwaukee and Madison.      

I Noticed the 'Norwegian Classic ethnic settlement areas' Went 47% for Walker in 2010.  It isn't all that important, but I am often frustrated that these areas are moving so incredibly slow toward the republican party.  Would it kill them to pick up the pace?!  Once they become majority GOP the western congressional district around La Crosse will flip and every region of the state will be majority republican -- except Dane County.    

Indeed, and speaking about trends, here is the Leip's trend map for Wisconsin for 2008.  You can see it is just awash with glorious shades of red, with only those pesky "Norwegian" regions (along with that food stamp nation Indian reservation, and what is that commie-lib county again just west of Milwaukee?) refusing to get about the business of gradually weaning themselves from the socialist agenda.  Oh wait a minute, Leips thinks blue is red, and red is blue because he's color blind doesn't he?  Hmmm. Well back to predicting who Romney's VP candidate will be and how each and every county in the nation will go this November and by what margin I guess. That probably might be more productive than this.  

That is a weird trend map.  I guess that's what it looks like when 10-15% of the Republican vote disappears. 
Tangential to the Norwegian factor, the 3 counties up by Deluth have 'weird' Finnish areas that have looney tune voting patterns.  I don't know if Lenin is running around agitating up there or what.  Fortunately it isn't a lot of votes, but it screws up the aesthetic of many statewide county maps.             

[Sibboleth]

what the hell is this thread

[Torie]

what the hell is this thread

Can I help you with something?  At least Wisconsin and Wales start with the same letter.

[Jbrase]

what the hell is this thread

I lost track a while ago, but last I checked it was "The Official Herbert Hoover Recall Thread"

[Sibboleth]

what the hell is this thread

Can I help you with something?  At least Wisconsin and Wales start with the same letter.

Tried reading the last couple of pages again (now that it's a civilised hour and all that) and I'm still left bemused.

[AmericanNation]

what the hell is this thread

Can I help you with something?  At least Wisconsin and Wales start with the same letter.

"The center of the political universe for the next week and a half thread" 

[krazen1211]

Marquette: Walker + 7.


Yawn.

[AmericanNation]

The only way Walker can lose is if 10-14% of his supporters don't show up to vote. 

Did you see the undecided and unsure numbers?  1% and 2% LOL!

Walker owns the middle-independents and the right loves him.  The same middle is still supporting Obama, however.  Mitt might want to start running some ads and or visiting the state, pronto.  He has 7 to 10 points up for grabs with his name written on them.  I expect this post Walker victory.   

[Torie]

For some reason, I get tons of Walker email spam, no matter how much I try to put a stop to it (most asking for money of course).  Anyway, I got the email below, just in cash anyone wants to watch the debate tonight online. Enjoy.

[Gravis Marketing]

Bill Clinton is going to Wisconsin to campaign for Barrett.

[greenforest32]

http://www.progressive.org/feingold_revs_up_crowd_for_barrett.html

Acknowledging Walker’s fundraising advantage, Barrett said: “He’s got the mountains of money. I’ve got you.”

[A-Bob]

Any news about the debate?

[Scottyp65]

Don't believe the latest Marquette polling numbers showing Walker up by 7.  The baseline assumptions in that poll are ridiculous.

If you look in the crosstabs, the poll gives about 32% weight to Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties.  These three counties represent about 10.7% of Wisconsin's population.  They do represent about 32% of greater Milwaukee's population, though.  Western and Northwestern Wisconsin, which are solidly democratic are way under-represented.  That's why he has a 7 point lead.  Nobody, and I mean nobody in the state thinks this is anything but a tie race.  This poll is basically published to try and drive down democratic turnout.  Going into the race, there were only 1 - 2% undecideds, so a 6 point swing is fantasy.  Franklin, who runs the Marquette poll ALL BUT ADMITTED THIS in an interview.
Walkers latest ads about crime reporting in Milwaukee seem pretty, well, over the top and kind of desperate.  Barretts ads pounding on the John Doe investigation (which will probably result in an indictment) seem to be working.  Plus Dem cash finally coming in for ad wars.  Sense momentum is switching to Barrett.

[ModerateCoward]

The latest fundraising is 2 to 1, 6 mil for Walker and 3 for Barett, so maybe this isn't over yet.