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| | |-+  Scott Walker recall goes live
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Author Topic: Scott Walker recall goes live  (Read 32520 times)
AmericanNation
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« Reply #300 on: June 04, 2012, 10:44:26 am »
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The map is going to be pretty damn similar to the 2010 one, no matter what. It'll be interesting to see what (if anything) looks different.

I'd be surprised if Walker wins La Crosse again this time.

Feingold won La Crosse too. I'm wondering who could possibly vote Walker/Feingold.
It's been going on forever.  Look at the old Thompson/Feingold ticket splitting.  Probably has something to do with the Madison media market and my "Norwegian theory."   
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #301 on: June 04, 2012, 10:47:30 am »
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Stuff coming across my desk pertaining to the recall:

The #WIUnionDesperation twitter hashtag is hilarious.  Examples: Scott Walker was the one who suggested that Fonzi "jump the shark" and Scott Walker created the BCS!
Some are wisconsin-centric like: Scott Walker HATES kringle and Scott Walker told T. J. Rubley to call an audible. Or  Scott Walker once ate cheese from California!
Intrade has Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 93.0% to win @Intrade -

Waukesha Students Stand With Walker
http://thedinnertableblog.wordpress.com/2012/06/04/waukesha-students-stand-with-walker/

#recall desperation

Moment of Decision: Turnout models favor GOP incumbent in WI recall
http://freebeacon.com/moment-of-decision/

On eve of Wis. recall, one thing is clear: Romney will add state to its targeted list-for now http://nyti.ms/K8CaH8 #wirecall

MacIver Institute ‏@MacIverWisc
See chart -> Big Labor will spend in excess of $20 million in reportable expenditures for the recall #wiright...http://fb.me/Wk9KRJ2h

Bummer. Democrat’s Walker Love Child Story Falls Apart… In About an Hour http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/06/bummer-democrats-walker-love-child-story-falls-apart-in-a-little-over-an-hour/

Union head likens Walker reforms to 9/11 attacks. Obama national co-chair defends it http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/jesse-jackson-rallies-party-faithful-wisconsin_646471.html

The stakes in the Wisconsin recall. - http://WSJ.comhttp://on.wsj.com/M1oUJl

PPP results in #WIRECALL are inconsistent. Why is his approval rating (51 percent) higher than his vote number (50)? 

the fact that PPP isn't telegraphing the result means it's seriously bad hews for Barrett. They love to hype the good polls. Barrett's campaign is already tweeting their tracking polls, which is their usual effort at counter spin.

Walker responds to Dem "love child" attacks, calling them "sickening" and "crap." Predicts they will backfire. http://bit.ly/LdXmvx

 WOW... look at this HUGE #wiunion crowd for Barrett at Jesse Jackson event http://yfrog.com/ntob5eij

George Will: Wisconsin's Peter Pan Progressivism: http://wapo.st/JYmqgx”

900 show up for Clinton yesterday, 4,000 in Racine today for Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch

Chicago and Boston will focus on how big Walker wins.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/the-number-that-will-matter-in-wisconsin-5krk

Finally a piece on the boyscout son of a preacher: Scott Walker. 
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/301648/preachers-son-robert-costa

 @RepPaulRyan: "On Tuesday, we save Wisconsin. And in November, Wisconsin saves America."

http://www.wigderson.com/index.php/2012/06/03/how-disgusting-and-low-will-the-democrats-go/
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krazen1211
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« Reply #302 on: June 04, 2012, 11:00:56 am »
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WAA has Walker +12 again.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #303 on: June 04, 2012, 01:36:30 pm »
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Time for my prediction:

51.13% Walker (+3.27)
47.86% Barrett
  1.01% Trivedi
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LastVoter
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« Reply #304 on: June 04, 2012, 02:51:58 pm »
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Prediction
Walker: 50
Barrett: 48
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Nhoj
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« Reply #305 on: June 04, 2012, 03:50:46 pm »
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I will say walker by three, which is pretty much what I have always been thinking even before PPPs last poll came out.
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Speaker Dereich
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« Reply #306 on: June 04, 2012, 04:07:00 pm »
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Walker: 51
Barrett: 48
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GM Napoleon
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« Reply #307 on: June 04, 2012, 04:37:06 pm »
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Walker 54
Barrett 46
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« Reply #308 on: June 04, 2012, 05:07:06 pm »
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Depressing, but Walker will win by a stable margin. + ~7-9%
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« Reply #309 on: June 04, 2012, 07:38:38 pm »
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Walker, 51.5 - 48-.5
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So it goes. heya.
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« Reply #310 on: June 04, 2012, 09:16:52 pm »
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Final Prediction:

Walker 51.2%
Barrett 48.6%
Other guy .2%
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #311 on: June 04, 2012, 09:39:10 pm »
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Most likely range
 
Walker wins by 1 to 7
more likely 3 to 5

I'll pick 4 points

a X-factor variable is that 'other guy' is drawing from Barrett 0.5 to 2 % of the vote.

Walker:         52
Barrett:     < 47.5
Other guy:  > 0.5
« Last Edit: June 04, 2012, 09:41:45 pm by AmericanNation »Logged

greenforest32
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« Reply #312 on: June 04, 2012, 11:31:49 pm »
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Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?
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« Reply #313 on: June 04, 2012, 11:33:06 pm »
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I don't think it will matter since almost nobody will vote for him but does the other dude on the ballot seem like he leans to the left or the right?
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Swedish Cheese
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« Reply #314 on: June 05, 2012, 06:00:45 am »
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Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?

Didn't walker abolish same day registration.
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« Reply #315 on: June 05, 2012, 07:25:27 am »
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Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?

Didn't walker abolish same day registration.

Everything I'm finding says it still exists, but there's a new requirement to prove residency of about a month.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2012, 07:27:49 am by Alcon »Logged

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AmericanNation
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« Reply #316 on: June 05, 2012, 09:03:49 am »
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Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?

Didn't walker abolish same day registration.

Everything I'm finding says it still exists, but there's a new requirement to prove residency of about a month.
I'm 99.9% sure, same day registration is in effect. 

The only confusion is from some parts of the voter ID bill being in effect and other parts being under a temporary injunction from a Dane County judge. 

A part that is still in effect extended the residency requirement from approximately 10 days to a month.       
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #317 on: June 05, 2012, 09:12:27 am »
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I don't think it will matter since almost nobody will vote for him but does the other dude on the ballot seem like he leans to the left or the right?

He seems to be drawing almost entirely from Barrett.  It is probably more of a protest vote against the recall by 'non' republicans, than his positions.  

The guy has a heavy Indian (as in India) accent and his ads generally just take the other sides negative attacks and combine them.  Ex: Barrett's record in Milwaukee sucks and Walker made budget cuts, vote for me, if my policies don't work I'll return my pay.    
« Last Edit: June 05, 2012, 09:14:29 am by AmericanNation »Logged

Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #318 on: June 05, 2012, 09:30:29 am »
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The GOP talked about getting rid of same-day registration, but in the end they didn't; it wasn't in the bill that introduced the photo ID requirement.

The new 28-day residency requirement, though, is particularly problematic for the current June election, since it is less than 28 days since the end of the academic year when many students left residence and returned to their home areas. This has caused a lot of confusion over where students are supposed to vote.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #319 on: June 05, 2012, 09:31:05 am »
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Turnout, in Republican areas early on, looks to be highest ever.  

People could be motivated/anxious to finally get it over with OR it is/will be legitimately the largest turnout.  ...Something to check tonight.  
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #320 on: June 05, 2012, 09:42:01 am »
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The GOP talked about getting rid of same-day registration, but in the end they didn't; it wasn't in the bill that introduced the photo ID requirement.

The new 28-day residency requirement, though, is particularly problematic for the current June election, since it is less than 28 days since the end of the academic year when many students left residence and returned to their home areas. This has caused a lot of confusion over where students are supposed to vote.

I don't want to pick a fight, but if you can't figure out how to register to vote (with Wisconsin's extremely [small L] liberal registration laws), than you shouldn't be in college or vote for that matter. 

State Residency is not Ward residency.  You can easily prove state residency AND Ward residency in a students case.  It is ONE SMALL extra step in an EXTREMELY permissive process. 

FYI, We almost never take people off the rolls, unless someone asks/demands to be, so just go to the easiest place (for you) that you are on the voter roll.  ex: your parent's house's ward.        
« Last Edit: June 05, 2012, 09:46:39 am by AmericanNation »Logged

greenforest32
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« Reply #321 on: June 05, 2012, 09:56:45 am »
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Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?

Didn't walker abolish same day registration.

That was the Republicans in Maine and it was overturned by voters in a veto referendum: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Maine_Same-Day_Registration_Veto_Referendum,_Question_1_%282011%29
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Torie
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« Reply #322 on: June 05, 2012, 10:18:51 am »
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As the votes roll in tonight, and you see county returns, these mappies will give you a road map of who is doing what to whom for projection purposes. What would you do without me?  Tongue



« Last Edit: June 05, 2012, 10:59:40 am by Torie »Logged

Wiz from Wis in Mass
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« Reply #323 on: June 05, 2012, 11:10:19 am »
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What would you do without me? 

Indeed.
____________

Pardon the twitter lingo, but here are some turnout anecdotes I'm reading about on twitter. These are just anecdotes, and VERY early ones at that (it's still just 10 AM in Wisconsin).

RT @MacIverWisc: Oak Creek - wards 10-12 - line snakes through gym and out the door. Unprecedented. Went 65% walker in 2010

RT @Brand_Allen: That's Waukesha Co (went 71-28% for Walker in '10) RT @MenomoneePatch: In mini poll outside Falls library, Walker got 13/15 voters #WIrecall

RT @Brand_Allen This is in Milwaukee Co, voted 62-38% for Barrett in '10. RT @tosasoccerdad Huge lines at Underwood in #Tosa this morning. #WIrecall

RT @Brand_Allen Again, in Milwaukee Co (62-38% Barrett in '10) RT @ShorewoodPatch: At 8:24 a.m. in Shorewood. And they just keep coming. #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen That's Dane Co(68-31% for Barrett in '10). RT @lgoldrick25: 23 min wait for me to vote in Stoughton #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen This is in Ozaukee Co(69-31% for Walker in '10) MT @aterkel Pt Washington poll worker on #wirecall lines today:"never seen anything like it"

RT @Brand_Allen That's Winnebago Co (voted 54-44% for Walker in '10). #WIgov MT @PGDougSchneider #Appleton guy reported 25-min wait at poll #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Dane Co., a Barrett stronghold. MT @jrburns I was voter #492 at 9:30 in one of 2 polling places in Mt Horeb. In a town of 7,000 #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Green Co, voted 50-48% Barrett in '10. MT @sgm_glen: I was voter #148 at 7:30 AM at the Town of New Glarus. Big turnout! #wirecall #WIgov

...and a personal favorite
RT @CynicusPrime: Don't worry. All the Walker voters are still at work. ;-) MT @jason_manc Slightly concerned by Dem turnout anecdotes

Edited:
RT @Brand_Allen: Racine County, voted 56-43% Walker in '10. RT @kylemaichle52 153 voter count for Racine District 1-Ward 1 -#wiright #wivote #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Eau Claire Co. voted 50-49% Barrett in '10. RT @aliciayager Im #183 in Eau Claire at 10:30. Seems kinda slow #wirecall http://pic.twitter.com/j19a5PUd

RT @biggovt: Long Lines as Recall Voting Begins in Heavily Democratic Milwaukee: As polls opened this morning for #WIrecall http://t.co/zsG6fr6E

Jesus... I used to live in Tweet 1... If that's true, that is farking huge... and really bad news for Barrett. Of course, it sounds like everyone over 18 in the state plans on voting today.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #324 on: June 05, 2012, 12:26:06 pm »
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Jesus... I used to live in Tweet 1... If that's true, that is farking huge... and really bad news for Barrett. Of course, it sounds like everyone over 18 in the state plans on voting today.
I think that is true of the Walker side.  Barrett will have high turnout in some wards, low in others.
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