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Author Topic: Scott Walker recall goes live  (Read 32658 times)
Torie
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« Reply #250 on: May 31, 2012, 11:34:11 pm »
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I saw about 10 minutes of the debate, and thought Walker was eviscerating Barrett, as he explained that yes he cut taxes on business to try to get jobs, and yes cut education, but offset it with his reforms, and it has been offset in school districts that adopted him, and then pointed out that Barrett has never been specific as to how he would have obeyed the law, and balanced a 3.5 billion dollar deficit (which is huge per capita, about the same as the current CA meltdown), as he, Walker had to do (thus all those cuts), making tough choices, and I thought, well, on these issues I feel so strongly, and am so biased, that it is pointless for me to watch any further, and I switched to something more adult rated.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #251 on: June 01, 2012, 09:15:27 am »
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Walkers latest ads about crime reporting in Milwaukee seem pretty, well, over the top and kind of desperate
If you made a list of Tom Barrett accomplishments over his 8 years as Mayor of Milwaukee (I supported him), hiring a decent police chief is just about the only thing on the list.  So the fact that Chief Flynn and Barrett have lied about crime statistics undercuts Barrett's only accomplishment. 

It isn't desperation it is literally the exact opposite, the ad destroys the only thing Barrett had on his resume.         

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Barretts ads pounding on the John Doe investigation (which will probably result in an indictment) seem to be working.  Plus Dem cash finally coming in for ad wars.  Sense momentum is switching to Barrett.
I love how you projected the desperation of Barrett's 'John Doe' hail marry onto the Walker body punch, which is pretty meat and potatoes.  Their has been zero indication that Walker did anything wrong, will be indicted(LOL), or should even be mentioned in connection with a fishing expedition involving a vast array of nit-picking.  The only serious thing was an embezzler --who Walker suspected and directed the DA to look into in the first place.  So, the John Doe on substance speaks to Walker's management skills --and that's all the dems have going?  --definition of desperation.       
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krazen1211
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« Reply #252 on: June 01, 2012, 11:55:38 am »
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Don't believe the latest Marquette polling numbers showing Walker up by 7.  The baseline assumptions in that poll are ridiculous.

If you look in the crosstabs, the poll gives about 32% weight to Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties.  These three counties represent about 10.7% of Wisconsin's population.  They do represent about 32% of greater Milwaukee's population, though.  Western and Northwestern Wisconsin, which are solidly democratic are way under-represented.  That's why he has a 7 point lead.  Nobody, and I mean nobody in the state thinks this is anything but a tie race.  This poll is basically published to try and drive down democratic turnout.  Going into the race, there were only 1 - 2% undecideds, so a 6 point swing is fantasy.  Franklin, who runs the Marquette poll ALL BUT ADMITTED THIS in an interview.
Walkers latest ads about crime reporting in Milwaukee seem pretty, well, over the top and kind of desperate.  Barretts ads pounding on the John Doe investigation (which will probably result in an indictment) seem to be working.  Plus Dem cash finally coming in for ad wars.  Sense momentum is switching to Barrett.


Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.



Of course, if you're a liberal you can just go with the internal polls rather than the public polls. Shrug.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #253 on: June 01, 2012, 01:11:51 pm »
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Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.
I thought of those numbers (roughly) as I read his post.  The poll showed Obama with a 8-10% lead... so, if anything it was oversampling dems.  Lacrosse and Duluth isn't were the population is or were the uber-hyper motivated voters are.  That would be Dane county on the dem side and the WOW counties and Milwaukee suburbs on the GOP side.   
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krazen1211
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« Reply #254 on: June 01, 2012, 04:03:45 pm »
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Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.
I thought of those numbers (roughly) as I read his post.  The poll showed Obama with a 8-10% lead... so, if anything it was oversampling dems.  Lacrosse and Duluth isn't were the population is or were the uber-hyper motivated voters are.  That would be Dane county on the dem side and the WOW counties and Milwaukee suburbs on the GOP side.   

His mistake was thinking that Milwaukee MSA only includes those 3 counties.


Heck, Prosser did exceptional in Milwaukee County outside of Milwaukee. That's 300k people. The fact that the poll overestimates Milwaukee City by 2% and Madison MSA by 2% makes it quite Dem friendly.
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« Reply #255 on: June 01, 2012, 08:13:47 pm »
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Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.

Nice job making a bunch of numbers up.  Hope the math didn't take you too long.
The population of Milwaukee metro from US Census estimated end of 2011 is about 1.56 million.  600k in milwaukee. 950k in suburbs.
Go back and read my entry.  I didn't say the suburbs were over represented at 32%, I said Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties were.  THEY make up 10.7% of the population.  I am sure a poll that weighed Dane county at 32% of the vote would show Barrett ahead by 7.  Quit making up numbers and misrepresenting my clearly written post to try and prove a point
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« Reply #256 on: June 01, 2012, 08:17:09 pm »
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I saw about 10 minutes of the debate, and thought Walker was eviscerating Barrett, as he explained that yes he cut taxes on business to try to get jobs, and yes cut education, but offset it with his reforms, and it has been offset in school districts that adopted him, and then pointed out that Barrett has never been specific as to how he would have obeyed the law, and balanced a 3.5 billion dollar deficit (which is huge per capita, about the same as the current CA meltdown), as he, Walker had to do (thus all those cuts), making tough choices, and I thought, well, on these issues I feel so strongly, and am so biased, that it is pointless for me to watch any further, and I switched to something more adult rated.

Had you watched more, Barrett came back and by most non partisan accounts won the debate.  He hammered Walker on the dead baby ad that basically left Walker kind of stunned for the last part of the debate.
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« Reply #257 on: June 01, 2012, 08:19:22 pm »
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Where can you watch the May 31st debate online? C-span isn't hosting it: http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Wisconsin-Governors-Recall-Election-Final-Debate/10737431132/

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Due to station restrictions, the debate can not seen at c-span.org.  
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« Reply #258 on: June 01, 2012, 08:21:58 pm »
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If you made a list of Tom Barrett accomplishments over his 8 years as Mayor of Milwaukee (I supported him), hiring a decent police chief is just about the only thing on the list.  So the fact that Chief Flynn and Barrett have lied about crime statistics undercuts Barrett's only accomplishment.  It isn't desperation it is literally the exact opposite, the ad destroys the only thing Barrett had on his resume. 

Its not his going after the reporting error, its how he did it showing a dead baby with Barretts name pasted on it.  
Thats what was over the line, not the core mis-reporting issue.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #259 on: June 01, 2012, 08:25:17 pm »
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Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.

Nice job making a bunch of numbers up.  Hope the math didn't take you too long.
The population of Milwaukee metro from US Census estimated end of 2011 is about 1.56 million.  600k in milwaukee. 950k in suburbs.
Go back and read my entry.  I didn't say the suburbs were over represented at 32%, I said Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties were.  THEY make up 10.7% of the population.  I am sure a poll that weighed Dane county at 32% of the vote would show Barrett ahead by 7.  Quit making up numbers and misrepresenting my clearly written post to try and prove a point


Bzzzt, wrong. You still don't seem to have figured out that the Milwaukee DMA consists of more than those 3 counties. The poll identifies 32% of the vote coming from the Milwaukee DMA outside the city.


I'm not surprised, though. This poll is quite in line with about a dozen other polls.


http://www.journalinteractive.com/markets/milwaukee/

Home to over 2.2 million people, the Milwaukee DMA is the largest population center in Wisconsin. 571,800 people live in city of Milwaukee, the nation's 26th largest city ranking ahead of Las Vegas, Nashville and Portland.
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Scottyp65
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« Reply #260 on: June 01, 2012, 08:31:49 pm »
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I love how you projected the desperation of Barrett's 'John Doe' hail marry onto the Walker body punch, which is pretty meat and potatoes.  Their has been zero indication that Walker did anything wrong, will be indicted(LOL), or should even be mentioned in connection with a fishing expedition involving a vast array of nit-picking. 

I can't understand how you can possibly come to that conclusion, unless right wing talk radio is your only news source.  Virtually all of the people who reported to him as Milw. county commish have been indicted.  Most for campaigning on work time.  If you take the annual salary of these positions, Walker basically stole this money from Milwaukee county and used it as campaign cash.  Thats what this amounts to.  The only thing left is to directly connect Walker to the embezzlement, which is why they want the emails and why Walker is fighting to not turn them over.  An indictment is only a matter of time.
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« Reply #261 on: June 01, 2012, 08:43:12 pm »
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Home to over 2.2 million people, the Milwaukee DMA is the largest population center in Wisconsin. 571,800 people live in city of Milwaukee, the nation's 26th largest city ranking ahead of Las Vegas, Nashville and Portland.

I'm using numbers from US Census Bureau metropolitan and micropolitan areas.  I have no idea where JS is getting 2.2 million in the designated market area.  Perhaps one is used more commercially for TV ratings or something.  I have lived here all my life and never heard Milwaukee metro referred to as being over 2 million people.  Thats why I thought you were making the numbers up.  Apologize for that.  We are coming at it from two different number sets.    
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #262 on: June 02, 2012, 08:31:06 am »
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I love how you projected the desperation of Barrett's 'John Doe' hail marry onto the Walker body punch, which is pretty meat and potatoes.  Their has been zero indication that Walker did anything wrong, will be indicted(LOL), or should even be mentioned in connection with a fishing expedition involving a vast array of nit-picking. 

I can't understand how you can possibly come to that conclusion, unless right wing talk radio is your only news source.  Virtually all of the people who reported to him as Milw. county commish have been indicted.  Most for campaigning on work time.  If you take the annual salary of these positions, Walker basically stole this money from Milwaukee county and used it as campaign cash.  Thats what this amounts to.  The only thing left is to directly connect Walker to the embezzlement, which is why they want the emails and why Walker is fighting to not turn them over.  An indictment is only a matter of time.

Some of the errors in your statement are in bold.

1 guy embezzled (not yet convicted because this investigation has gone on forever, for no justifiable reason) and was discovered because Walker suspected it. 

1 nice old grandma--county employee was charged with doing political work on county time for the sin of reading the Journal Sentinel online and posting some honest comments below the article favorable about her boss.

2 employees is a far cry from "Virtually all of the people who reported to him"

The emails were not sent to Walker.  He doesn't have them.  The conspiracy theory is that his staff had a secret email network.  How can you turn over something you don't have and may not exist? 

You left out the "Bid rigging" where no bid was awarded to anybody... LOL, that was a new one. 

Their is no such thing as an indictment in Wisconsin.  You get charged with a crime.  I wonder if the Barrett campaign is using that term so they aren't guilty of libel/slander technically or something.   
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« Reply #263 on: June 02, 2012, 08:43:44 am »
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHQ96z110WA&t=28m13s
Barrett admits he doesn't think Walker did anything wrong. 

Amazing how his entire campaign is relying on misleading people to believe something he publicly admits that he believes not to be true.     
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« Reply #264 on: June 02, 2012, 08:47:46 am »
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Where can you watch the May 31st debate online? C-span isn't hosting it: http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Wisconsin-Governors-Recall-Election-Final-Debate/10737431132/

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Due to station restrictions, the debate can not seen at c-span.org.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTUwV4BEZK4
here is the audio. 
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« Reply #265 on: June 02, 2012, 12:04:31 pm »
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Anybody wanna bet this ends up a lot closer than the polls are showing it to be?
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As expected the wop won.

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AmericanNation
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« Reply #266 on: June 02, 2012, 12:08:00 pm »
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LIKE WHAT 52% - 48%? 
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« Reply #267 on: June 02, 2012, 12:32:26 pm »
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LIKE WHAT 52% - 48%?  

I'm thinking more like a 51%-49% Walker victory personally.
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As expected the wop won.

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AmericanNation
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« Reply #268 on: June 02, 2012, 06:54:17 pm »
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LIKE WHAT 52% - 48%?  

I'm thinking more like a 51%-49% Walker victory personally.
Yea, Walker is sitting on something like 50.5% to 55%.  He has been there since the 2010 campaign 3 years ago.  The only brief dip below may have been when people were confused as to way an insurrection was occurring.  Given how substance free his opposition has been I can't see him getting under 50.5%.       
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« Reply #269 on: June 02, 2012, 08:55:39 pm »
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Anybody wanna bet this ends up a lot closer than the polls are showing it to be?

Yes, a Barrett victory is still a major possibility at this point. He's had significant momentum over the past week and a major GOTV effort is out in full force in MKE and Madison.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #270 on: June 02, 2012, 09:35:15 pm »
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what momentum?  People are wondering how much he's damaged himself for the future. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #271 on: June 03, 2012, 08:59:30 am »
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PPP to release a final WI recall poll tonight between 11pm and midnight Eastern.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #272 on: June 03, 2012, 09:10:13 am »
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PPP to release a final WI recall poll tonight between 11pm and midnight Eastern.

Highlight of a lazy Sunday? Probably.
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« Reply #273 on: June 03, 2012, 12:07:55 pm »
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"Based on our first day of calls in Wisconsin Walker is ahead, but closer than the Marquette poll earlier this week."
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #274 on: June 03, 2012, 12:12:04 pm »
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If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.
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