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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Scott Walker recall goes live
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Author Topic: Scott Walker recall goes live  (Read 33086 times)
IBDD
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« Reply #275 on: June 03, 2012, 12:34:03 pm »
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idk who will win but the poll will probably be the factor and it depends on how Barret does in the urban, and Rural areas
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« Reply #276 on: June 03, 2012, 01:05:52 pm »
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Here comes PPP to help Barrett with the narrative.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #277 on: June 03, 2012, 01:26:36 pm »
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If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.

The situation is a little different from 2010. Wouldn't Walker possibly underpoll these days given the stigma that would come with supporting someone possibly being removed from office before the end of their term? Those opposed to the recall really have been a silent majority. It leads me to believe there are more people in those ranks but they feel that they have to say they support the recall (for job reasons among others).
« Last Edit: June 03, 2012, 02:53:34 pm by Keystone Phil »Logged

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« Reply #278 on: June 03, 2012, 01:42:18 pm »
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Last time PPP/MLS released close together, MLS had Walker 51/45 and PPP 50/45. So I'm guessing Walker 49/45 or something like that.
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« Reply #279 on: June 03, 2012, 02:09:40 pm »
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I'm guessing that Barrett will lead the last day or two of polling and that the poll in sum will be tied. Based off of typical Jensen wordplay I bet PPP will have been in the field for 3 days and Walker only led the first day.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part but I find it difficult to believe that most polls thus far have shown a turnout model even more favorable to Republicans than 2010 when early voting and the rate of absentee ballots being requested suggests turnout levels approaching 2008 levels.
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« Reply #280 on: June 03, 2012, 02:51:37 pm »
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Possible last minute bombshell:

http://www.uppitywis.org/blogarticle/university-minnesota-scientist-drops-bombshell-about-walker-says
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« Reply #281 on: June 03, 2012, 02:54:35 pm »
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LOL

Last minute extreme desperation!
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LastVoter
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« Reply #282 on: June 03, 2012, 03:14:09 pm »
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If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.

The situation is a little different from 2010. Wouldn't Walker possibly underpoll these days given the stigma that would come with supporting someone possibly being removed from office before the end of their term? Those opposed to the recall really have been a silent majority. It leads me to believe there are more people in those ranks but they feel that they have to say they support the recall (for job reasons among others).
I take it you haven't seen comments on news article's and youtube videos of Walker supporters.
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« Reply #283 on: June 03, 2012, 03:37:12 pm »
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If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.

The situation is a little different from 2010. Wouldn't Walker possibly underpoll these days given the stigma that would come with supporting someone possibly being removed from office before the end of their term? Those opposed to the recall really have been a silent majority. It leads me to believe there are more people in those ranks but they feel that they have to say they support the recall (for job reasons among others).
I take it you haven't seen comments on news article's and youtube videos of Walker supporters.

No, I don't waste time on idiocy/YouTube comments.
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« Reply #284 on: June 03, 2012, 04:01:06 pm »
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Objectively: don't count on this not changing the game. It was a last-minute(read: within two days of the election) bombshell that sunk Eli Bebout in Wyoming and got Dave Freudenthal elected.

Don't count any election as "in the bag" until you see the results.
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« Reply #285 on: June 03, 2012, 04:45:12 pm »
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The deadbeat father is a different Scott Walker that is listed in the court records, unfortunately.

As for the election, I still think there is a chance we could see a surprising result.
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« Reply #286 on: June 03, 2012, 06:07:53 pm »
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It also just dawned on me that the recall is in TWO DAYS! I'm excited (and a nerd)!
...I have to vote AGAIN, so that my candidate wins AGAIN.  I will probably set a record for votes in a year that I won't break for the rest of my life.  The really good thing about meeting the President of the United States is the FOOD. They put you in this little room with just about anything you'd want to eat or drink. But since, number one, I wasn't hungry, but THIRSTY, and number two, they was free, I must have drank me about fifteen Dr. Peppers.
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« Reply #287 on: June 03, 2012, 06:20:04 pm »
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The PPP poll will actually be the first one in a while. The Marquette University poll was done 5/23-5/26.

I will be surprised if this doesn't end up pretty close. It'd be absolutely priceless if Walker actually lost but I'd still only give that a 1/4 chance of happening at best.
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« Reply #288 on: June 03, 2012, 06:39:25 pm »
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At the start of this, the undecideds were never more than 2-3%.  Polls showing Walker with a 5 or 6 point lead are wrong.  People aren't changing their mind.  It is much more about turnout.  If Dems can really drive turnout in Milwaukee, Barrett will win.  If turnout in Milwaukee is at the Kloppenburg/Prosser level, Walker will win.

I know a lot of people on both sides and not one has changed their mind how they will vote.  You really either love walker or hate him.  I wouldn't believe anyone claiming to have changed people's minds.  The winner will have a bit over 50%.  The loser will have a bit under.

There is indeed a feeling that Barrett is coming from behind, but again, with so few undecideds, I don't know that means much.  I am guessing a call will not be made until at least 10 pm, assuming Waukesha county doesn't show any irregularities.
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« Reply #289 on: June 03, 2012, 07:55:42 pm »
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scottyp,
People are polarized yes, but many non-republicans are rightfully mad at the fact that the recall is happening.  They also have witnessed the countless blunders and boorish behavior by the leftists.  Combine that with the substance free campaign the dems have run and these people will effectively block a Barrett victory by not voting, voting for the first time, or crossing over to Walker.  If not for this phenomenon I wouldn't feel as confident as I do.  Barrett has virtually no path to victory, their aren't enough votes out there for him.  If he won 100% of the undecideds at this point he would still lose.           
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« Reply #290 on: June 03, 2012, 10:05:45 pm »
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Hot off the presses:

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« Reply #291 on: June 03, 2012, 10:13:54 pm »
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Yes, feeling pretty good about my 51%-49% Walker prediction indeed. Looks like it could be an interesting night after all.
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« Reply #292 on: June 03, 2012, 10:18:58 pm »
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I'm going to allow myself to hold out a little hope.
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« Reply #293 on: June 03, 2012, 11:06:56 pm »
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The map is going to be pretty damn similar to the 2010 one, no matter what. It'll be interesting to see what (if anything) looks different.
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« Reply #294 on: June 04, 2012, 12:09:47 am »
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Angus Reid (internet poll of 524 registered voters):

53-47 Walker

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012.06.03_Wisconsin.pdf
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« Reply #295 on: June 04, 2012, 12:12:01 am »
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The map is going to be pretty damn similar to the 2010 one, no matter what. It'll be interesting to see what (if anything) looks different.

I'd be surprised if Walker wins La Crosse again this time.

Feingold won La Crosse too. I'm wondering who could possibly vote Walker/Feingold.
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« Reply #296 on: June 04, 2012, 12:27:54 am »
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What is Angus Reid's track record like?
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« Reply #297 on: June 04, 2012, 12:43:12 am »
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It's an internet poll so...
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« Reply #298 on: June 04, 2012, 12:51:39 am »
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I'm changing my prediction to Walker by .5

edit: I changed it again for the last time.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2012, 01:44:26 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »Logged



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« Reply #299 on: June 04, 2012, 08:04:56 am »
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Sticking with Walker at 51-52%.
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