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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Scott Walker recall goes live
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Author Topic: Scott Walker recall goes live  (Read 36427 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #350 on: June 05, 2012, 04:31:52 pm »
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https://twitter.com/amybarrilleaux/status/210104858878033920

Amy at WTDY
‏@AmyBarrilleaux

Madison City Clerk tells me turnout is on pace to hit 119% in Madison, adding "That would be unprecedented."
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Torie
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« Reply #351 on: June 05, 2012, 04:33:29 pm »
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[url][http://m.host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html/url]

Dane County Clerk says turnout "may reach 80 to 88 percent". Wow.

You didn't finish reading the paragraph: "We could hit 80 to 88 percent," Dane county clerk Karen Peters told a reporter this morning. But minutes ago, Peters downgraded that projection in an interview with THE WEEKLY STANDARD. "We [originally] said 70 to 75 percent, and I think it's going to be more in the 75 percent range," Peters told me.

I thought all the University of Wisconsin students had split. 
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LastVoter
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« Reply #352 on: June 05, 2012, 04:34:47 pm »
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BREAKING

MSNBC just flashed some stuff from the first wave of exits:

Who will you vote for in November for President?

Obama 51%
Romney 45%

They flashed a few other numbers but I didn't catch it all... looked like most had a positive opinion of public employees but were evenly divided on collective bargaining.
I'm guessing this is consistent with my 50-48 for W prediction, Obama numbers need to be at about 53 for Barrett to win.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #353 on: June 05, 2012, 04:35:03 pm »
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This is looking pretty close to me based on what I'm seeing so far. Of course, early exit polling info isn't the most reliable, to say the least.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #354 on: June 05, 2012, 04:38:16 pm »
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Marquette had Obama up 8 in the same poll that had Walker up by 7, BTW.
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Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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« Reply #355 on: June 05, 2012, 04:39:25 pm »
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And dailykos is going crazy. In before Waukesha county clerk.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #356 on: June 05, 2012, 04:41:37 pm »
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Marquette had Obama up 8 in the same poll that had Walker up by 7, BTW.
Well PPP was 49-42 but it was Obama-McCain.
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mondale84
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« Reply #357 on: June 05, 2012, 04:43:11 pm »
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This is going to be very, very close.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #358 on: June 05, 2012, 04:45:17 pm »
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I'd love to meet someone who voted for Walker today and plans on voting for Obama in November. How does that work exactly?
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LastVoter
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« Reply #359 on: June 05, 2012, 04:49:44 pm »
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John King on CNN just said that 68% of today's voters were non-union members, 32% were union members. In 2010, it was 74% non-union member, 26% union member.

PS - It's only 4:30 in Wisconsin, and there's still 3.5 hrs of voting left. Why is the media breaking its self-imposed no-leaked exit polls before polls close rule?
I thought the media's imposed that rule only until 5.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #360 on: June 05, 2012, 04:50:14 pm »
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The scary thing for Walker must be that it's not yet 5 PM there...
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LastVoter
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« Reply #361 on: June 05, 2012, 04:52:07 pm »
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The scary thing for Walker must be that it's not yet 5 PM there...
?
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#Ready4Nixon
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« Reply #362 on: June 05, 2012, 04:53:33 pm »
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My history teacher today offered the interesting opinion that, "if Walker gets re-elected, he'll be the next President."
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #363 on: June 05, 2012, 05:05:59 pm »
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The scary thing for Walker must be that it's not yet 5 PM there...
?

? Yeah. Don't see how that only helps Barrett.

But besides that, CBS reports that 50% support the collective bargaining law in Wisconsin, per EARLY exits, 48% don't. But 60% of voters think recalls should only be done for misconduct.

What's likely to doom Barrett here is that centrist Dems and independents who may lean Obama in the fan are not a fan of the recall attempt, and some may vote to let Walker finish his term as part of that.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #364 on: June 05, 2012, 05:08:25 pm »
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Workers tend to come out later on.

Anyway, CNN showed a bunch of new exit stuff. Basically looks like a 50-50 race right now.
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« Reply #365 on: June 05, 2012, 05:13:27 pm »
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Walker continues to move downward on intrade but it is a very slow and gradual fall.

My history teacher today offered the interesting opinion that, "if Walker gets re-elected, he'll be the next President."

Somehow I doubt that. I guess he doesn't put much stock in Mitt Romney though. Tongue
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#Ready4Nixon
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« Reply #366 on: June 05, 2012, 05:16:11 pm »
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Walker continues to move downward on intrade but it is a very slow and gradual fall.

My history teacher today offered the interesting opinion that, "if Walker gets re-elected, he'll be the next President."

Somehow I doubt that. I guess he doesn't put much stock in Mitt Romney though. Tongue

Neither do I (put much stock in Romney). I think it'd be interesting to, four years from now, nominate that one super controversial governor. That'd make for an interesting political success story.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #367 on: June 05, 2012, 05:18:19 pm »
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According to EARLY exits, 13% of the electorate is made up of 18-29 yr olds. It was 15% in 2010.

That's actually a little better than I would have thought. Obviously, Democrats can't depend on young people for a win in this one though.
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Wiz from Wis in Mass
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« Reply #368 on: June 05, 2012, 05:23:17 pm »
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According to EARLY exits, 13% of the electorate is made up of 18-29 yr olds. It was 15% in 2010.

That's actually a little better than I would have thought. Obviously, Democrats can't depend on young people for a win in this one though.

Don't trust early exit polls overall... really don't trust internals of early exit polls. They're pretty much worthless.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #369 on: June 05, 2012, 05:27:05 pm »
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According to EARLY exits, 13% of the electorate is made up of 18-29 yr olds. It was 15% in 2010.

That's actually a little better than I would have thought. Obviously, Democrats can't depend on young people for a win in this one though.

Don't trust early exit polls overall... really don't trust internals of early exit polls. They're pretty much worthless.

You're preaching to the choir. We have to talk about something though. Tongue
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #370 on: June 05, 2012, 05:41:26 pm »
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Voted around 5:00.  Turnout at my Heavily Republican voting place is up over 60% from the primary and people are likely to pile in at a heavier rate after 5 as work ends.  Walker looks to be outperforming 2010.   
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #371 on: June 05, 2012, 05:48:19 pm »
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Van Hollen/Falk race for Attorney General in 2006 proved Wisconsin exit pols favor dems by quite a bit.   
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #372 on: June 05, 2012, 05:50:01 pm »
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Also, John King on CNN just said 37% of recall EARLY exit poll voters strongly support limiting collective bargaining rights (50% total support), and 38% strongly oppose it (48% total opposition).

Saw that earlier. That should indicate a 50-50 race or close to it, assuming those numbers actually hold up (or at least you'd think it would).
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #373 on: June 05, 2012, 05:51:14 pm »
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have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #374 on: June 05, 2012, 05:56:03 pm »
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Also, John King on CNN just said 37% of recall EARLY exit poll voters strongly support limiting collective bargaining rights (50% total support), and 38% strongly oppose it (48% total opposition).

Saw that earlier. That should indicate a 50-50 race or close to it, assuming those numbers actually hold up (or at least you'd think it would).

You would think that, although the exit poll stat I saw showing 60% of recall voters only think elected officials should be recalled in the event of misconduct would mean that a decent portion of those people who oppose limiting collective bargaining, also oppose the recall.

Many of those 60% believe that Walker misused his office and broke the law.
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