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| | |-+  Scott Walker recall goes live
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Author Topic: Scott Walker recall goes live  (Read 36948 times)
philly09
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« Reply #575 on: June 06, 2012, 12:12:38 am »
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Still Walker is taking a lot of the counties that Obama won in 2008.

...That tends to be what happens when you compare a Democrat +14% election to a Republican +7% one.


Does that mean that the Wisconsinites prefer R's at the state/local level and D's at the National/Federal level?

No, not really. It's only two elections in different climates with different candidates. For instance, Jim Doyle won by larger margins than Kerry or Gore. 


But Kerry and Gore still won the state.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #576 on: June 06, 2012, 12:13:07 am »
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Still Walker is taking a lot of the counties that Obama won in 2008.

...That tends to be what happens when you compare a Democrat +14% election to a Republican +7% one.


Does that mean that the Wisconsinites prefer R's at the state/local level and D's at the National/Federal level?
No, democrats don't vote as much in non-Presidential years, and their campaign got destroyed($ 30mil vs $3mil).
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philly09
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« Reply #577 on: June 06, 2012, 12:18:03 am »
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Turnout was high for the 2006 midterms.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #578 on: June 06, 2012, 12:26:32 am »
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Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely. 
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #579 on: June 06, 2012, 12:33:26 am »
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Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely. 

Says who?
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #580 on: June 06, 2012, 12:36:25 am »
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Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely. 

Says who?

Local News, interviewing both campaigns
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« Reply #581 on: June 06, 2012, 12:36:56 am »
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http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/wisconsin-recall-results?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000009#graph
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #582 on: June 06, 2012, 12:46:03 am »
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Here's the map.  It was sharp, I don't know why it's dull now.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #583 on: June 06, 2012, 12:49:00 am »
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bigger

Barrett won 12 counties, but he came real close to only winning 6. 
« Last Edit: June 06, 2012, 12:51:33 am by AmericanNation »Logged

Tender Branson
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« Reply #584 on: June 06, 2012, 12:49:12 am »
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Obama's winning Indies by double-digits, while Barrett lost them by about double-digits:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/07/us/politics/shifts-in-wisconsin-voters.html

Obama also gets 94% of Democrats, but loses ground among Republicans compared with 2008.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #585 on: June 06, 2012, 12:50:08 am »
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Menominee county is quite FF, I would have thought that Milwaukee would be more blue than the Native Americans though.
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« Reply #586 on: June 06, 2012, 12:53:54 am »
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I haven't been paying close attention to this - seems I really missed something. I can understand the impression of him being unlikeable.  After Walker made so many enemies, I'm surprised he did this well - even winning traditionally Democratic counties!  What was the turnout like?  What kind of people are Walker/Obama voters?
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« Reply #587 on: June 06, 2012, 12:54:09 am »
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Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely. 

The city of Racine's results are what's a mess - 36 of 36 precincts are supposedly reporting, but the first 2 precincts show 0 votes.

My guess based on what's out in the city and county is that Van Wanggaard, the Republican incumbent, wins by the skin of his teeth.  I have him currently losing by 318 votes with those two Racine precincts, three Mount Pleasant precincts, and the village of Waterford outstanding.   Walker won Waterford by about 800 votes in 2010.  Mount Pleasant was closer, but leaned Walker.  I figure those areas combined should give Wanggaard about 1,000 votes.  Racine renumbered its wards from 2010, but the first two precincts in 2010 weren't that large, with Walker losing by about 330.  Net net, Wanggaard probably wins by 400-500 votes.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #588 on: June 06, 2012, 12:55:03 am »
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Obama's winning Indies by double-digits, while Barrett lost them by about double-digits:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/07/us/politics/shifts-in-wisconsin-voters.html

Obama also gets 94% of Democrats, but loses ground among Republicans compared with 2008.

Yeah, but did you see the far right column in that link you posted? The net change since 2008 amongst EVERY single group of voters in Wisconsin is down, sometimes by double digit margins.

That's because 2008 was like the best result a Democrat could get in a Presidential year (except in a mega-landslide).
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #589 on: June 06, 2012, 01:00:18 am »
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Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely.  

The city of Racine's results are what's a mess - 36 of 36 precincts are supposedly reporting, but the first 2 precincts show 0 votes.

My guess based on what's out in the city and county is that Van Wanggaard, the Republican incumbent, wins by the skin of his teeth.  I have him currently losing by 318 votes with those two Racine precincts, three Mount Pleasant precincts, and the village of Waterford outstanding.   Walker won Waterford by about 800 votes in 2010.  Mount Pleasant was closer, but leaned Walker.  I figure those areas combined should give Wanggaard about 1,000 votes.  Racine renumbered its wards from 2010, but the first two precincts in 2010 weren't that large, with Walker losing by about 330.  Net net, Wanggaard probably wins by 400-500 votes.

They said they will sort it out tomorrow. :-(  

We know Walker will win the county and the senate district is almost the same boarder as the county.    
« Last Edit: June 06, 2012, 01:02:06 am by AmericanNation »Logged

cinyc
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« Reply #590 on: June 06, 2012, 01:10:03 am »
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Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely.  

The city of Racine's results are what's a mess - 36 of 36 precincts are supposedly reporting, but the first 2 precincts show 0 votes.

My guess based on what's out in the city and county is that Van Wanggaard, the Republican incumbent, wins by the skin of his teeth.  I have him currently losing by 318 votes with those two Racine precincts, three Mount Pleasant precincts, and the village of Waterford outstanding.   Walker won Waterford by about 800 votes in 2010.  Mount Pleasant was closer, but leaned Walker.  I figure those areas combined should give Wanggaard about 1,000 votes.  Racine renumbered its wards from 2010, but the first two precincts in 2010 weren't that large, with Walker losing by about 330.  Net net, Wanggaard probably wins by 400-500 votes.

They said they will sort it out tomorrow. :-(  

We know Walker will win the county and the senate district is almost the same boarder as the county.    

Well, the city updated its results and is now really all in.  There were more voters in the missing precincts than I expected.  The Democrat leads by 1,057 votes with three precincts in Mount Pleasant and one precinct containing the village of Waterford outstanding.  There should be just enough votes there to overcome the deficit - a net of about 1300 for the Republican incumbent if Mount Pleasant ward borders didn't change from 2010.   But ultimately this is likely going to depend on absentees and a recount.  The city of Racine has 225 uncounted absentees.  No report from the county.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #591 on: June 06, 2012, 01:12:46 am »
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OK this should be a sharper image. 
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #592 on: June 06, 2012, 01:22:31 am »
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« Last Edit: June 06, 2012, 10:08:31 pm by LiberalJunkie99 »Logged
IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
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« Reply #593 on: June 06, 2012, 01:48:20 am »
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     PPP was hardly any better than WAA in this race. I wonder if this will actually affect anyone's opinion of PPP.
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #594 on: June 06, 2012, 01:53:42 am »
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Marokai Besieged
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« Reply #595 on: June 06, 2012, 02:04:32 am »
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Matt Yglesias said it best...

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Exit polls clarfy that WI recall outcome will be settled by deeply confused swing voters who lack coherent political views.

EDIT: Haha, Obama leads Romney in the exit poll. What the hell kind of confused person is an Obama/Walker voter?

This is why no one should be surprised by this. It was easy to see this result coming from a mile away. You cannot expect voters to base their support and action on any consistent set of political opinions, they simply are not capable of doing so. (And apparently it's wildly insulting and hackish to say so, despite just being an empirical truth.)
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Miles
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« Reply #596 on: June 06, 2012, 02:10:05 am »
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Wisconsin's swing from 2010:



Grey = Not yet at 100% reporting

Wonderful. I was waiting for that to be posted!
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #597 on: June 06, 2012, 07:46:38 am »
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Matt Yglesias said it best...

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Exit polls clarfy that WI recall outcome will be settled by deeply confused swing voters who lack coherent political views.

EDIT: Haha, Obama leads Romney in the exit poll. What the hell kind of confused person is an Obama/Walker voter?

This is why no one should be surprised by this. It was easy to see this result coming from a mile away. You cannot expect voters to base their support and action on any consistent set of political opinions, they simply are not capable of doing so. (And apparently it's wildly insulting and hackish to say so, despite just being an empirical truth.)

You guys realize that the exit poll showed the Walker recall TIED and that Romney has campaigned ZERO in Wisconsin right?  It's a great idea to hang your hat on that exit poll.

The democrats have a huge permanent turnkey infrastructure in Wisconsin that will produce 45% of the vote every time. 
Vs.
The Republicans have to rebuild their campaign organization every two years.

The democrats thought they could steamroll democracy by using their unfair advantage.  What a monumental miscalculation.  They never seem to grasp how backlash works.       
« Last Edit: June 06, 2012, 07:58:05 am by AmericanNation »Logged

Torie
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« Reply #598 on: June 06, 2012, 08:04:02 am »
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Yes, it does appear that the exit poll was garbage. Exit polls of course "massage" the exit poll numbers to match the actual vote as it comes in. That is why the exit poll showed the big Barrett lead among women erode away. It is quite dishonest actually. They should label the readjusted exit polls just that, which is fine since it gives cohort voting patterns, but keep the original one around for accountability's sake. It is also an object lesson that one should not call a race based on exit polls unless you have at least an 8 point margin (10 being a safe call, 8 being a judgment call), which was sort of the number that has been percolating in the back of my mind for some time. This cf performance rather confirms that. Meanwhile the Fox River Valley continues its big snapback to the Pubs after trending hard to Obama and the Dems in 2008.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2012, 08:39:46 am by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #599 on: June 06, 2012, 08:20:36 am »
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Yes, it does appear that the exit poll was garbage.

Yep. Bad on me for wanting to believe it and then using it to criticize people for wanting to believe We Ask America... bad exit polls are hardly new this year so I should have known better. In the end it went exactly as polls have been predicting for months.

Interesting in that what we see is that executives seem to survive, but legislators pay the price. 
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