Scott Walker recall goes live

[Alcon]

It's pretty impressive that a full 94% of people who disapprove of Walker want him recalled, and yet his disapproval is only a few points underwater.  That is one polarized electorate.

[Alcon]

Has there even been any serious analysis that concluded that Waukesha County was sketchy, as opposed to incompetent?  I recall pretty convincing arguments that Waukesha County's results looked consistent, didn't exhibit non-randomness, etc.

[Alcon]

Has there even been any serious analysis that concluded that Waukesha County was sketchy, as opposed to incompetent?  I recall pretty convincing arguments that Waukesha County's results looked consistent, didn't exhibit non-randomness, etc.

I don't think there has been, but I would guess it's incompetence. 

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/08/vote-counting-error-in-wisconsin-points-to-incompetence-not-conspiracy/

[Alcon]

It's pretty impressive that a full 94% of people who disapprove of Walker want him recalled, and yet his disapproval is only a few points underwater.  That is one polarized electorate.

Thank you Scott Walker!

Based off of PPP, the far superior polling outfit, it looks like his negatives are going back up and Independents view him negatively at 43-55. Its going to be really close when it is all said and done. 

Lol, as if! Just a couple days ago PPP was blabbering about the Santorum surge in Michigan and polled Romney at a mere +17 in Arizona. Whoops.

Especially with the absentee ballots issue, Michigan was only a moderate mess-up...and polling Romney +17 in Arizona when it turned out Romney +20.5 is fine.

Of course, either way, using the last two data points (with no reason to believe they should have any different import than previous data points) is a problem in and of itself.

PPP, for instance, messed up Arizona less than anyone did (chronology issues conceded)

[Alcon]

An n=406 poll with a +5% lead isn't really "dominating"; it's within the MoE.

[Alcon]

An n=406 poll with a +5% lead isn't really "dominating"; it's within the MoE.

Yes, but if the poll is accurate, while the odds that the leader will win are less than 95% (or is it 98% - (I can't remember what percentage is two standard deviations out and which three)?), they probably are at least 80%-85%, enough to make it a "likely" call in my opinion, if the poll is accurate.

It's 95%, yeah.  A +/-5% MoE applies to both values, so the full MoE of here (if I'm not mis-remembering my stats) is double the margin of the poll.  I think statistical significance is an annoying concept because, as you say, it misleads people into thinking a poll is only worthwhile if it reaches statistical significance.  It's not.  It's very useful to know there's an 80% chance of a lead, especially if you have multiple polls saying the same thing.  However, I'd say "well more than a 1-in-20 chance that a poll's lead is solely based on statistical noise" doesn't reasonably translate into "dominating."  Nor does +5%, really, even if it was a perfect poll with no MoE.

[Alcon]

Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?

Didn't walker abolish same day registration.

Everything I'm finding says it still exists, but there's a new requirement to prove residency of about a month.

[Alcon]

Why is it that Barrett is winning the counties Obama lost in '08, and Walker is winning the counties that Obama won in '08?

This web site uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans.

[Alcon]

Why is it that Barrett is winning the counties Obama lost in '08, and Walker is winning the counties that Obama won in '08?

This web site uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans.

Walker still won La Crosse in 2010, and he's winning Green.

Yeah, Walker lost ground in a handful of counties.  I'm not sure what this has to do with Obama, or why Green is remarkable.  Sorry if I'm failing comprehension here...

[Alcon]

Still Walker is taking a lot of the counties that Obama won in 2008.

...That tends to be what happens when you compare a Democrat +14% election to a Republican +7% one.

[Alcon]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/wisconsin-recall-results?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000009#graph