Scott Walker recall goes live

[Torie]

Additionally 200k or more have been identified as probably bogus signatures.

O RLY?

Anyway, Dems seem to be setting up a circular firing squad here...

Yea, a volunteer army has been examining the petitions on an online database.  Scot Walker signed it 50 times, daffy duck, mickey mouse, etc.  MANY people signed more than once, some weren't filled out properly, some forgery's were discovered... you get the picture.  They probably got enough signatures, but a failure rate approaching 40% is a little troubling.    

Do you have a link to a source that says 200,000 signatures are "probably bogus"?

Not to put too fine a point to it, but it doesn't cost anything for random Republicans to make an outrageous, unsupported claim to undermine the legitimacy of the elections.

Maybe the public employee unions did it. That is what they did with the ban mandatory union dues for political campaigns initiative signature gathering effort (as well as banning corporate contributions), without the annual signed written consent of the member, shareholder. They hired folks to sign petitions multiple times, in hopes the petition gatherers would think they had enough valid signatures, when they didn't. But a smart lawyer whom I know is one of the guys behind the curtain, and he did a random cross check, and caught on to the game, so they got more signatures!  

Oh the unions are behind the recall here, so never mind. Of maybe they got desperate, and were running out of time. Or maybe the Koch brothers did it, whom have become one of the Dems favorite demons twins lately. So many theories, so little time.

All roads across the River Styx lead to public employee unions, with the auto company unions in a neighborhood adjacent.

[Torie]

I join Krazen in really, really wanting to win this one. Things look pretty good at the moment, but things can go wrong in a hurry, with all of the plate tectonic shifts moving around all over the place, as the voters try to sort through a host of unpleasant stuff. It's cold shower time, and only kooks like cold showers.

That is why I am so amused by all the youngs  forecasting how various states will go this November and by what margin, and then even by county in one thread. Oh dear! They will learn in time.

[Torie]

If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.

GDP growth above 2.5% ? ?  unemployment under 8% ? ?

Slavery ? ? Imperialism ? ?

Yes if Scott Walker is re-elected to his first term as governor of Wisconsin, than SLAVERY will be re-instituted and  Wisconsin will exploit it's overseas IMPERIAL colonies.  

Wait, Slavery has never been instituted in Wisconsin and we have no colonies.  

That's not what I meant. I was just saying that the 1800s weren't "The good old days" just because they had a good economy.

Yeah that 18% unemployment in 1895 and 14% in 1876 sure was good.

Hey, if we simply forgot almost the entirety of what we now know about medical science, and just turn it all over to quacks, who bleed you from time to time when you get sick, that should solve a lot of our fiscal problems, no?  And as to dentistry, in the good old days blacksmiths handled that.

[Torie]

My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation? 

[Torie]

This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.

Are you talking about the John Doe investigation Walker originally called for?  If so it goes like this:
1) County Executive Walker suspects a problem with a charitable org overseen by the county.
2) Walker asks the District Attorney to look into it.  
3) The guy running the org turned out to be embezzling funds    
4) The John Joe turns into a fishing expedition for the last two years, producing basically nothing so far.  
5) Leaks from the DA office to the Journal Sentinel brings into question the professionalism of the Milwaukee DA office.
6) Democrats pin political hopes on 'a/any result' of the investigation, hopefully timed right before the recall.  

...Judging by what a complete boy scout Walker is, I would have to conclude that nothing close to Walker is there to find.  They might find a few staffers doing political work on government time (by typing an email or something).  

You forgot about him hiring unqualified friends for well paid public positions.(some guy with 2 DUI's for $80K a year job). Also isn't it hypocritical to release the better job numbers that don't normally get released until 5 weeks later and then not expect to get indicted in the John Doe investigation?

what?
1)a public employee had a DUI... ok.
2) no.  releasing important information to the public is a good thing not a bad thing. 
3) why would you expect to get indicted if you didn't do anything?  he hasn't even been accused of anything.  You aren't making a coherent point, that I can tell. 

He released information that traditionally doesn't get released until June for his political gain(to defend himself from re-election), so why would it be wrong for Democrats to indict him before the re-election for their political gain?

If you are referring to the good employment numbers in Wisconsin, as to what Walker released, he said specifically on Fox News, that the employment data was gathered per federal mandate in the normal course for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and released on, and not before,  the deadline date. In fact, he made a point of that without being asked, because I guess even though Greta did not know about that charge, he wanted to respond anyway. So that does not comport with a claim of early release.

[Torie]

An n=406 poll with a +5% lead isn't really "dominating"; it's within the MoE.

Yes, but if the poll is accurate, while the odds that the leader will win are less than 95% (or is it 98% - (I can't remember what percentage is two standard deviations out and which three)?), they probably are at least 80%-85%, enough to make it a "likely" call in my opinion, if the poll is accurate.

[Torie]

The dems have basically given up "campaigning" as they have no  chance to win that way. 
They have a bunch of out of state operatives driving around vans in Milwaukee and Madison so they can deliver warm bodies to early absentee vote.  Their has reportedly been 100,000 early absentee ballots so far (in two days) compared to 200,000ish in the 2010 election. 
It is a little concerning because a disinterested uniformed vote is worth as much as the opposite.  However, the side that doesn't have to drag a majority of it's voters to the polls has a type of advantage.         

It's "uninterested" actually. "Disinterested" means unbiased, like a judge is supposed to be. You really all need to go to law school, to learn about, inter alia, mootness and disinterestedness.

[Torie]

No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.

Yea, outside of Milwaukee and Madison Barrett is a joke.  

The growth of the 'WOW' counties  (Waukesha, Ozuakee, Washington) may eventually completely counterbalance Milwaukee and Madison.      

I Noticed the 'Norwegian Classic ethnic settlement areas' Went 47% for Walker in 2010.  It isn't all that important, but I am often frustrated that these areas are moving so incredibly slow toward the republican party.  Would it kill them to pick up the pace?!  Once they become majority GOP the western congressional district around La Crosse will flip and every region of the state will be majority republican -- except Dane County.    

Indeed, and speaking about trends, here is the Leip's trend map for Wisconsin for 2008.  You can see it is just awash with glorious shades of red, with only those pesky "Norwegian" regions (along with that food stamp nation Indian reservation, and what is that commie-lib county again just west of Milwaukee?) refusing to get about the business of gradually weaning themselves from the socialist agenda.  Oh wait a minute, Leips thinks blue is red, and red is blue because he's color blind doesn't he?  Hmmm. Well back to predicting who Romney's VP candidate will be and how each and every county in the nation will go this November and by what margin I guess. That probably might be more productive than this.  

[Torie]

what the hell is this thread

Can I help you with something?  At least Wisconsin and Wales start with the same letter.

[Torie]

For some reason, I get tons of Walker email spam, no matter how much I try to put a stop to it (most asking for money of course).  Anyway, I got the email below, just in cash anyone wants to watch the debate tonight online. Enjoy.

[Torie]

I saw about 10 minutes of the debate, and thought Walker was eviscerating Barrett, as he explained that yes he cut taxes on business to try to get jobs, and yes cut education, but offset it with his reforms, and it has been offset in school districts that adopted him, and then pointed out that Barrett has never been specific as to how he would have obeyed the law, and balanced a 3.5 billion dollar deficit (which is huge per capita, about the same as the current CA meltdown), as he, Walker had to do (thus all those cuts), making tough choices, and I thought, well, on these issues I feel so strongly, and am so biased, that it is pointless for me to watch any further, and I switched to something more adult rated.

[Torie]

Hot off the presses:

[Torie]

As the votes roll in tonight, and you see county returns, these mappies will give you a road map of who is doing what to whom for projection purposes. What would you do without me?  

 

[Torie]

[url][http://m.host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html/url]

Dane County Clerk says turnout "may reach 80 to 88 percent". Wow.

You didn't finish reading the paragraph: "We could hit 80 to 88 percent," Dane county clerk Karen Peters told a reporter this morning. But minutes ago, Peters downgraded that projection in an interview with THE WEEKLY STANDARD. "We [originally] said 70 to 75 percent, and I think it's going to be more in the 75 percent range," Peters told me.

I thought all the University of Wisconsin students had split. 

[Torie]

Yes, it does appear that the exit poll was garbage. Exit polls of course "massage" the exit poll numbers to match the actual vote as it comes in. That is why the exit poll showed the big Barrett lead among women erode away. It is quite dishonest actually. They should label the readjusted exit polls just that, which is fine since it gives cohort voting patterns, but keep the original one around for accountability's sake. It is also an object lesson that one should not call a race based on exit polls unless you have at least an 8 point margin (10 being a safe call, 8 being a judgment call), which was sort of the number that has been percolating in the back of my mind for some time. This cf performance rather confirms that. Meanwhile the Fox River Valley continues its big snapback to the Pubs after trending hard to Obama and the Dems in 2008.

[Torie]

On this money thing, the Dems could have poured money into the sinkhole if they wanted to. They wisely chose not to. Plus, internal public employee union communications, facilitation, transportation, and boots on the ground is not counted in the financial figures. Finally, money has decreasing marginal returns. I suspect most voters were aware of the key issues.

In other news, the public employee unions took it on the chin in San Diego (where the Pubs may be headed to taking over the city council to boot), and in San Jose. They had a really bad night. There appears to be a new sheriff in town.