Scott Walker recall goes live

[Gass3268]

1,000,000 signatures!!!

[Gass3268]

In comparison Scott Walker got 1,128,941 votes in his election in 2010.
- 24% of all eligible voters in Wisconsin
- 29% of all registered voters in Wisconsin
- 45% of all actual 2010 voters in Wisconsin

[Gass3268]

So if Walker wins, can't they just turn around and get another million signatures and recall him again? And if they lose that, a 3rd time?

Nothing in the GAB website seems to have prohibited such.

Nope, you can only be up for a recall election once during your term. I think that it's in the state constitution.

[Gass3268]

Walker's approvals are back underwater.

47%-52%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_022812.pdf

[Gass3268]

It's pretty impressive that a full 94% of people who disapprove of Walker want him recalled, and yet his disapproval is only a few points underwater.  That is one polarized electorate.

Thank you Scott Walker!

Based off of PPP, the far superior polling outfit, it looks like his negatives are going back up and Independents view him negatively at 43-55. Its going to be really close when it is all said and done. 

[Gass3268]

Sadly, I think this will be close enough so that Waukesha county officials can pull out a "win" for Scott Walker.

Unfortunately I think you're right.

[Gass3268]

Has there even been any serious analysis that concluded that Waukesha County was sketchy, as opposed to incompetent?  I recall pretty convincing arguments that Waukesha County's results looked consistent, didn't exhibit non-randomness, etc.

I don't think there has been, but I would guess it's incompetence. 

[Gass3268]

Thanks Scotty...

http://www.jsonline.com/business/state-posts-largest-percentage-job-loss-in-us-over-past-year-report-shows-ib54utt-148694855.html

[Gass3268]

My prediction for tomorrow's Democratic Primary:

Tom Barrett 48%
Kathleen Falk 33%
Doug La Follette 11%
Kathleen Vinehout 8% 

[Gass3268]

Looks like I over valued La Follette and Vinehout.

[Gass3268]

Falk wasn't that well liked in the rural areas and outer/suburban cities, her strength was in Madison. So we'll have to see if maybe that holds true in this election.  

[Gass3268]

Based on the results I assume Barrett is more liberal than Falk.

Not really. Falk is the favorite of the Unions while Barrett is the favorite of the party. Falk has made the stance that she would veto any budget that didn't restore collective bargaining rights. Barrett said he'd wait until he has the legislature to do so.

[Gass3268]

Falk wasn't that well liked in the rural areas and outer/suburban cities, her strength was in Madison. So we'll have to see if maybe that holds true in this election.  

Nope, Falk is actually doing better in the Fox River Valley then she is in Dane County. it does however look like Vinehout might win a county!

[Gass3268]

Getting ready to go vote. I'll come back with an update from my polling station.

[Gass3268]

At about 1:10pm I was the 356 voter at Madison School Board Offices, which is right next to the Kohl Center just off campus in downtown Madison. Unless people are planning on voting later tonight, this seems to be the effect of having the election during the summer and not during the school year.

[Gass3268]

No I idea on the number of students that decided to stay back. Hopefully the number goes up as the day goes on.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html

Dane County could get to 80% to 88%! Add this with the huge turn out in Milwaukee and the Milwaukee suburbs and we could be approaching 2008 levels. 

[Gass3268]

This is is about what I am expecting the map to look like when it is all said and done

[Gass3268]

Just realized (because i never thought of it) you could draw a north south line through where I live and never hit a democrat county.  That's about 280 miles from Illinois to the UP.   

You could almost do the same thing in the western part of the state and never hit a Republican county. The East-West divide of this state is crazy.

[Gass3268]

No I idea on the number of students that decided to stay back. Hopefully the number goes up as the day goes on.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html

Dane County could get to 80% to 88%! Add this with the huge turn out in Milwaukee and the Milwaukee suburbs and we could be approaching 2008 levels.  

Wouldn't students not be registered in WI but their home state?

You can register to vote in Wisconsin after living at your residency for 28 days (previously 10 days) so a lot of out of state students do vote in Wisconsin elections. I've heard that absentee ballots in Dane County are around 16,000, so maybe that's some of the students.  

[Gass3268]

No I idea on the number of students that decided to stay back. Hopefully the number goes up as the day goes on.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html

Dane County could get to 80% to 88%! Add this with the huge turn out in Milwaukee and the Milwaukee suburbs and we could be approaching 2008 levels. 

Wouldn't students not be registered in WI but their home state?

More likely their home town... most UW-System (even UW-Madison) students are Wisconsinites.

This is an interesting question, are there more students in Wisconsin in summer or during school year? I know that Northeast gets more students from other regions obviously, but what about Midwest? Maybe school being out is an actual bonus to student turnout in WI? Also some schools aren't out yet, like we are having finals week here at UW here today, but I think we are really in minority here.

Probably more students during the school year. There is a big draw of students from Minnesota, because of the reciprocity agreement, and Illinois that come to school here in Wisconsin. 

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/amybarrilleaux/status/210104858878033920

Amy at WTDY
‏@AmyBarrilleaux

Madison City Clerk tells me turnout is on pace to hit 119% in Madison, adding "That would be unprecedented."