Scott Walker recall goes live

[Keystone Phil]

They should have the recall election the same day as the Presidential election.

I assumed it would be, adding to what will already be a chaotic election season.

[Keystone Phil]

It's set for June 5th.

[Keystone Phil]

Only a seventeen thousand voter difference between Dems and Republicans and Walker only had a total joke primary opponent? Wow. Thanks for this recall.

[Keystone Phil]

PPP to release a final WI recall poll tonight between 11pm and midnight Eastern.

Highlight of a lazy Sunday? Probably.

[Keystone Phil]

If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.

The situation is a little different from 2010. Wouldn't Walker possibly underpoll these days given the stigma that would come with supporting someone possibly being removed from office before the end of their term? Those opposed to the recall really have been a silent majority. It leads me to believe there are more people in those ranks but they feel that they have to say they support the recall (for job reasons among others).

[Keystone Phil]

Possible last minute bombshell:

http://www.uppitywis.org/blogarticle/university-minnesota-scientist-drops-bombshell-about-walker-says

LOL

Last minute extreme desperation!

[Keystone Phil]

If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.

The situation is a little different from 2010. Wouldn't Walker possibly underpoll these days given the stigma that would come with supporting someone possibly being removed from office before the end of their term? Those opposed to the recall really have been a silent majority. It leads me to believe there are more people in those ranks but they feel that they have to say they support the recall (for job reasons among others).

I take it you haven't seen comments on news article's and youtube videos of Walker supporters.

No, I don't waste time on idiocy/YouTube comments.

[Keystone Phil]

Latest exits have Walker up 52% to 48%.

[Keystone Phil]

Hey, guys...

"Dominating"

[Keystone Phil]

So Republicans spent tens of millions to keep a criminal in office for a few months until he's thrown in jail? Huh.

LOL

Hey, remember how Walker's "illegitimate child" was going to sink him in the final weekend? Keep dreaming, boys.

[Keystone Phil]

Dems spent a year and a half labeling Scott Walker as the spawn of Satan. There was tons of free media. If what Walker was doing was so horrific, the money advantage can't be used as an excuse.

Jon Corzine outspent Bob Franks by how much in New Jersey in 2000? He won by only three points in a Presidential election year as a Democrat. Corzine wasn't unpopular either. Walker, however, had a huge money advantage as well but was supposedly evil. That should be enough to overcome the money advantage, right?

Bottom line: Walker wasn't nearly as unpopular as many imagined and certainly wasn't worthy of being recalled.

And the Dems have the Senate by one seat. That's not a statewide narrative and it will only last six months. It's a victory for Dems/labor, sure, but it's minuscule in comparison to the other race of the night.

[Keystone Phil]

Dems spent a year and a half labeling Scott Walker as the spawn of Satan. There was tons of free media. If what Walker was doing was so horrific, the money advantage can't be used as an excuse.

Jon Corzine outspent Bob Franks by how much in New Jersey in 2000? He won by only three points in a Presidential election year as a Democrat. Corzine wasn't unpopular either. Walker, however, had a huge money advantage as well but was supposedly evil. That should be enough to overcome the money advantage, right?

Bottom line: Walker wasn't nearly as unpopular as many imagined and certainly wasn't worthy of being recalled.

And the Dems have the Senate by one seat. That's not a statewide narrative and it will only last six months. It's a victory for Dems/labor, sure, but it's minuscule in comparison to the other race of the night.

I've said pretty consistently here that Walker wasn't going to be successfully recalled. The exit poll gave me false hope it was going to be close, but going back months the projections were clear that there wasn't a majority to pull him out of the governorship.

I was responding to American Nation's comment that the Dems had a steamroller in this race. Do you feel Dems had a steamroller in this race when Walker outspent them 10-1? The national Dems saw the writing on the wall and held back from this. Meanwhile, the Republicans' funding network poured in big money.

If you want to cite Corzine as an example that money doesn't make a difference, you and I both know we can find a few bazillion races in between where it did. And I'm not saying that if it had been $10m to $10m that Barrett would have won, but we can't know, and if it had been Barrett at $30m to Walker with $3m, I can pretty easily imagine your post here about it.

Dems (as well as Republicans) had plenty of ground troops especially from out of staters. Labor forces are supposed to be a steamroller in Wisconsin.

As for the money advantage, please don't assume what my response would be of Barrett had the insane advantage. How much did Obama outspend McCain by? I didn't complain. I'll note when someone has the advantage (and it might irritate me if the opposition has that or any advabtage but that's politics. I dont whine that it's unfair. I guess I do "whine" about a Corzine situation when an individual pumps tens of millions of their own money for a seat but only because I personally find it crazy) and, yes, most times it makes a difference but a situation like this? It wasn't the deciding factor.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually Phil, you did throw a fit about Obama opting out of public funding.

...because of hypocrisy. It had nothing to do with the actual act of opting out. Nice fail again, dude. I love when you do that.

How much did Obama outspend McCain by? I didn't complain.

Because it didn't matter and Obama was going to win anyway.

Oh, ok. So that makes it fine.

But that's actually my point (and I can make that point because I don't think it's an unfair practice): Walker was going to win anyway.

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And I'm not discussing whether it's "good" or not. It's not unfair in my opinion.

And now I understand why you're allowed to whine: because it usually benefits Republicans. What a joke.

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And I addressed that.