Scott Walker recall goes live

[LastVoter]

Cmon Feingold, don't let us down.

[LastVoter]

Why does the great union buster have to criss-cross the country on his fundraising trips?

Has to? I don't think he has to, but rather given his rock star status many people outside Wisconsin want to show support for a champion like him. It's certainly prudent to do so for Scott Walker.

Prudent, yes, but does him not spending his time within the state he's ostensibly governing indicate more concern for Wisconsin or more concern for Scott Walker?

In before Krazen says those two are the same thing.

You need to bait the troll to get him to say something like that. Outright calling for it usually doesn't work, or they get banned fast.

[LastVoter]

This election is a lot more interesting than Presidential one, and it there are actual different ideologies presented here. Hopefully the good guys win although it's not looking very good.

[LastVoter]

Democrats should have just played as dirty as the Republicans did, and unloaded the entire kitchen sink on Walker. Throw everything together(race-baiting, attack on women, unions, jobs record, call him a fascist a few times) and they would come out ahead by a point or two.

[LastVoter]

Depending on the results (for Republicans, very encouraging), I think we may be near to finding out who will be Mitt Romney's running-mate....    

Walker becoming president of US is a very scary thought.

[LastVoter]

Depending on the results (for Republicans, very encouraging), I think we may be near to finding out who will be Mitt Romney's running-mate....    

Walker becoming president of US is a very scary thought.

I am legitimately concerned that Biden is senile.  Walker isn't going to be VP, but Biden is actually scary. 

Yea that's a serious concern, he made Sarah Palin look comprehensible in the VP debates, which is a noteworthy achievement.

[LastVoter]

My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation? 

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net. 

Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

[LastVoter]

My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation?  

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net.  

Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.

Ah so one century forward. Calvin Coolidge or Hoover?

[LastVoter]

My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation?  

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net.  

Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.

Ah so one century forward. Calvin Coolidge or Hoover?

Coolidge Presidency.  Hoover was a great man after his presidency. 

Both were terrible for the median worker. I know that's not who you are concerned about, and that's why you think Scott Walker is great.

[LastVoter]

My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation?  

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net.  

Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.

Ah so one century forward. Calvin Coolidge or Hoover?

Coolidge Presidency.  Hoover was a great man after his presidency. 

Both were terrible for the median worker. I know that's not who you are concerned about, and that's why you think Scott Walker is great.

Hoover was, legitimately, a great man both before and after his presidency. Just not during.

Well I was talking about them as presidents.

[LastVoter]

Re: The Life And Times of Herbert Hoover
I am beginning to think this thread needs a name change.

Well, the recall has now shifted into something like:
1) now that Walker is going to win (probably convincingly) is this a game changer for the presidential race? and
2) Is Walker going to use his new massive mandate to impose a new age of Neo-Coolidge-ism? and
3) Why does the mention of Coolidge cause Dems to bring up Hoover within 5 seconds? 

Staying on the Coolidge topic, disregarding Hoover.
Are you familiar with Roaring 20's and the year of 1929? Guess who those achievements belong too?

[LastVoter]

This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.

[LastVoter]

This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.

Are you talking about the John Doe investigation Walker originally called for?  If so it goes like this:
1) County Executive Walker suspects a problem with a charitable org overseen by the county.
2) Walker asks the District Attorney to look into it.  
3) The guy running the org turned out to be embezzling funds    
4) The John Joe turns into a fishing expedition for the last two years, producing basically nothing so far.  
5) Leaks from the DA office to the Journal Sentinel brings into question the professionalism of the Milwaukee DA office.
6) Democrats pin political hopes on 'a/any result' of the investigation, hopefully timed right before the recall.  

...Judging by what a complete boy scout Walker is, I would have to conclude that nothing close to Walker is there to find.  They might find a few staffers doing political work on government time (by typing an email or something).  

You forgot about him hiring unqualified friends for well paid public positions.(some guy with 2 DUI's for $80K a year job). Also isn't it hypocritical to release the better job numbers that don't normally get released until 5 weeks later and then not expect to get indicted in the John Doe investigation?

[LastVoter]

This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.

Are you talking about the John Doe investigation Walker originally called for?  If so it goes like this:
1) County Executive Walker suspects a problem with a charitable org overseen by the county.
2) Walker asks the District Attorney to look into it.  
3) The guy running the org turned out to be embezzling funds    
4) The John Joe turns into a fishing expedition for the last two years, producing basically nothing so far.  
5) Leaks from the DA office to the Journal Sentinel brings into question the professionalism of the Milwaukee DA office.
6) Democrats pin political hopes on 'a/any result' of the investigation, hopefully timed right before the recall.  

...Judging by what a complete boy scout Walker is, I would have to conclude that nothing close to Walker is there to find.  They might find a few staffers doing political work on government time (by typing an email or something).  

You forgot about him hiring unqualified friends for well paid public positions.(some guy with 2 DUI's for $80K a year job). Also isn't it hypocritical to release the better job numbers that don't normally get released until 5 weeks later and then not expect to get indicted in the John Doe investigation?

what?
1)a public employee had a DUI... ok.
2) no.  releasing important information to the public is a good thing not a bad thing. 
3) why would you expect to get indicted if you didn't do anything?  he hasn't even been accused of anything.  You aren't making a coherent point, that I can tell. 

He released information that traditionally doesn't get released until June for his political gain(to defend himself from re-election), so why would it be wrong for Democrats to indict him before the re-election for their political gain?

[LastVoter]

And why would releasing data early be a reason for someone vote differently? If it is good data and he wanted to be known, barring the breaking of any laws, why would people care even if it was to benefit his campaign.

Now if he had delayed the data so as to avoid the release of bad news before the election or had altered in some way as to make things look better then they were, then people would be outraged and rightfully.

Isn't that data usually released later, and could still be revised, and is usually released after revision?
http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/update-walker-releases-better-jobs-data/article_6f6c2302-9f54-11e1-9c91-001a4bcf887a.html

[LastVoter]

And why would releasing data early be a reason for someone vote differently? If it is good data and he wanted to be known, barring the breaking of any laws, why would people care even if it was to benefit his campaign.

Now if he had delayed the data so as to avoid the release of bad news before the election or had altered in some way as to make things look better then they were, then people would be outraged and rightfully.

Isn't that data usually released later, and could still be revised, and is usually released after revision?
http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/update-walker-releases-better-jobs-data/article_6f6c2302-9f54-11e1-9c91-001a4bcf887a.html

Isn't both the GDP and Unemployment data nationwide released and then revised later?

It's checked before it's released by the BLS, than revised later I think.

[LastVoter]

The latest fundraising is 2 to 1, 6 mil for Walker and 3 for Barett, so maybe this isn't over yet.

[LastVoter]

If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.

The situation is a little different from 2010. Wouldn't Walker possibly underpoll these days given the stigma that would come with supporting someone possibly being removed from office before the end of their term? Those opposed to the recall really have been a silent majority. It leads me to believe there are more people in those ranks but they feel that they have to say they support the recall (for job reasons among others).

I take it you haven't seen comments on news article's and youtube videos of Walker supporters.

[LastVoter]

Prediction
Walker: 50
Barrett: 48

[LastVoter]

The GOP talked about getting rid of same-day registration, but in the end they didn't; it wasn't in the bill that introduced the photo ID requirement.

The new 28-day residency requirement, though, is particularly problematic for the current June election, since it is less than 28 days since the end of the academic year when many students left residence and returned to their home areas. This has caused a lot of confusion over where students are supposed to vote.

I don't want to pick a fight, but if you can't figure out how to register to vote (with Wisconsin's extremely [small L] liberal registration laws), than you shouldn't be in college or vote for that matter. 

State Residency is not Ward residency.  You can easily prove state residency AND Ward residency in a students case.  It is ONE SMALL extra step in an EXTREMELY permissive process. 

FYI, We almost never take people off the rolls, unless someone asks/demands to be, so just go to the easiest place (for you) that you are on the voter roll.  ex: your parent's house's ward.        

Uh...

[LastVoter]

So I read that the exit pollsters are locked in a room until 5PM but after that all exit polling hell is going to break lose?

[LastVoter]

No I idea on the number of students that decided to stay back. Hopefully the number goes up as the day goes on.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html

Dane County could get to 80% to 88%! Add this with the huge turn out in Milwaukee and the Milwaukee suburbs and we could be approaching 2008 levels. 

Wouldn't students not be registered in WI but their home state?

More likely their home town... most UW-System (even UW-Madison) students are Wisconsinites.

This is an interesting question, are there more students in Wisconsin in summer or during school year? I know that Northeast gets more students from other regions obviously, but what about Midwest? Maybe school being out is an actual bonus to student turnout in WI? Also some schools aren't out yet, like we are having finals week here at UW here today, but I think we are really in minority here.

[LastVoter]

BREAKING

MSNBC just flashed some stuff from the first wave of exits:

Who will you vote for in November for President?

Obama 51%
Romney 45%

They flashed a few other numbers but I didn't catch it all... looked like most had a positive opinion of public employees but were evenly divided on collective bargaining.

I'm guessing this is consistent with my 50-48 for W prediction, Obama numbers need to be at about 53 for Barrett to win.

[LastVoter]

And dailykos is going crazy. In before Waukesha county clerk.

[LastVoter]

Marquette had Obama up 8 in the same poll that had Walker up by 7, BTW.

Well PPP was 49-42 but it was Obama-McCain.