Scott Walker recall goes live

[Scottyp65]

They ended up identifying a few that were dropped off, but validated over 900,000.  Only 4 came back with names like Mickey Mouse. 

Most of this effort was Wisconsin based volunteers.  Some support was provided by unions, mostly administrative.  It wasn't a huge amount.  People who try to pass this whole thing off as a process run by big unions are trying to distort the truth.

It will be interesting to see how the primary comes out and the election.  Right now Dems are going at each other a bit between Falk and Barrett.  My sense is that Barrett will win this battle as Falk is a bit too close to the unions.

As for the general election, each party has about 46% absolutely locked in, and the remaining 8% or so will determine the election.  If I had to guess right now, I would think Barrett would win most independents, while I think Walker and Falk would split right now.  Very few people who are on the fence are Walker supporters.  You either love him or hate him.  Having the worst job performance in the nation hurts.  And with layoffs for teachers next year coming May 1, it will only get worse.

[Scottyp65]

Walker reforms has led to teacher HIRE's.  Teacher Union 'ram job' contract extensions has led to layoffs.  So, proof that Walker is better for education will "get worse" for him.  OK guy.     

You completely missed the point of my comment.  May 1st is when layoffs have to be announced for NEXT year.  This year's education budgets were padded by one time payouts that will be gone next year.  Also, budgets cuts this year were partially paid for from teacher increases in pension payments and health care payments.  That isnt an option next year.  I think you will see thousands of layoffs announced and a bunch of school districts cancel things like art classes, band, sports, etc.  That will be bad for Walker. 

[Scottyp65]

why would districts flush with cash start doing those things?  Walker districts are free to trim more fat from the budgets and some of the contracts of the Union ram job districts will expire and they will have tools....  so, yea you aren't making any sense with your point.  Maybe Union controlled boards will screw over their own members and the kids, but that makes Walker look good not bad.   

Flush with cash?  wow.  Where are you living? 

[Scottyp65]

What would you call an extra BILLION dollars? ?  Every week local newspapers report the local school districts (all over the state) save 1-10 million each just from stopping the WEA trust insurance racket.  What would you call WEAC suppressing it's own survey because it makes the reforms look so favorable? ? Facts and reality is where I'm living.  The state has LESS money and MORE money is in the classroom.  When is the last time that happened?  Answer: never.   Amazing what you can do when you cut a little fat.       

During winter when the buildings got cold, schools all over the state tossed bundles of hundred dollar bills in the furnace to warm it up.  I would call an extra billion dollars a figment of your imagination.  Facts and reality?  Yes school districts have downsized their health plans to cheaper plans and it has saved them some money. 
Walkers cuts were somewhere around $800 million.  You honestly believe that school districts have saved over $1.8 Billion from health insurance savings?

[Scottyp65]

WEA trust insurance is neither corrupt nor price gouging.  It is expensive because it is good high end insurance.  If you talk to teachers who went from them to a less expensive plan, and they had health issues, they will tell you the new insurance is nowhere near as good.  And yes, it is cheaper.

Do you work on the Walker campaign?

[Scottyp65]

Don't believe the latest Marquette polling numbers showing Walker up by 7.  The baseline assumptions in that poll are ridiculous.

If you look in the crosstabs, the poll gives about 32% weight to Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties.  These three counties represent about 10.7% of Wisconsin's population.  They do represent about 32% of greater Milwaukee's population, though.  Western and Northwestern Wisconsin, which are solidly democratic are way under-represented.  That's why he has a 7 point lead.  Nobody, and I mean nobody in the state thinks this is anything but a tie race.  This poll is basically published to try and drive down democratic turnout.  Going into the race, there were only 1 - 2% undecideds, so a 6 point swing is fantasy.  Franklin, who runs the Marquette poll ALL BUT ADMITTED THIS in an interview.
Walkers latest ads about crime reporting in Milwaukee seem pretty, well, over the top and kind of desperate.  Barretts ads pounding on the John Doe investigation (which will probably result in an indictment) seem to be working.  Plus Dem cash finally coming in for ad wars.  Sense momentum is switching to Barrett.

[Scottyp65]

Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.

Nice job making a bunch of numbers up.  Hope the math didn't take you too long.
The population of Milwaukee metro from US Census estimated end of 2011 is about 1.56 million.  600k in milwaukee. 950k in suburbs.
Go back and read my entry.  I didn't say the suburbs were over represented at 32%, I said Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties were.  THEY make up 10.7% of the population.  I am sure a poll that weighed Dane county at 32% of the vote would show Barrett ahead by 7.  Quit making up numbers and misrepresenting my clearly written post to try and prove a point

[Scottyp65]

I saw about 10 minutes of the debate, and thought Walker was eviscerating Barrett, as he explained that yes he cut taxes on business to try to get jobs, and yes cut education, but offset it with his reforms, and it has been offset in school districts that adopted him, and then pointed out that Barrett has never been specific as to how he would have obeyed the law, and balanced a 3.5 billion dollar deficit (which is huge per capita, about the same as the current CA meltdown), as he, Walker had to do (thus all those cuts), making tough choices, and I thought, well, on these issues I feel so strongly, and am so biased, that it is pointless for me to watch any further, and I switched to something more adult rated.

Had you watched more, Barrett came back and by most non partisan accounts won the debate.  He hammered Walker on the dead baby ad that basically left Walker kind of stunned for the last part of the debate.

[Scottyp65]

If you made a list of Tom Barrett accomplishments over his 8 years as Mayor of Milwaukee (I supported him), hiring a decent police chief is just about the only thing on the list.  So the fact that Chief Flynn and Barrett have lied about crime statistics undercuts Barrett's only accomplishment.  It isn't desperation it is literally the exact opposite, the ad destroys the only thing Barrett had on his resume. 

Its not his going after the reporting error, its how he did it showing a dead baby with Barretts name pasted on it.  
Thats what was over the line, not the core mis-reporting issue.

[Scottyp65]

I love how you projected the desperation of Barrett's 'John Doe' hail marry onto the Walker body punch, which is pretty meat and potatoes.  Their has been zero indication that Walker did anything wrong, will be indicted(LOL), or should even be mentioned in connection with a fishing expedition involving a vast array of nit-picking. 

I can't understand how you can possibly come to that conclusion, unless right wing talk radio is your only news source.  Virtually all of the people who reported to him as Milw. county commish have been indicted.  Most for campaigning on work time.  If you take the annual salary of these positions, Walker basically stole this money from Milwaukee county and used it as campaign cash.  Thats what this amounts to.  The only thing left is to directly connect Walker to the embezzlement, which is why they want the emails and why Walker is fighting to not turn them over.  An indictment is only a matter of time.

[Scottyp65]

Home to over 2.2 million people, the Milwaukee DMA is the largest population center in Wisconsin. 571,800 people live in city of Milwaukee, the nation's 26th largest city ranking ahead of Las Vegas, Nashville and Portland.

I'm using numbers from US Census Bureau metropolitan and micropolitan areas.  I have no idea where JS is getting 2.2 million in the designated market area.  Perhaps one is used more commercially for TV ratings or something.  I have lived here all my life and never heard Milwaukee metro referred to as being over 2 million people.  Thats why I thought you were making the numbers up.  Apologize for that.  We are coming at it from two different number sets.    

[Scottyp65]

At the start of this, the undecideds were never more than 2-3%.  Polls showing Walker with a 5 or 6 point lead are wrong.  People aren't changing their mind.  It is much more about turnout.  If Dems can really drive turnout in Milwaukee, Barrett will win.  If turnout in Milwaukee is at the Kloppenburg/Prosser level, Walker will win.

I know a lot of people on both sides and not one has changed their mind how they will vote.  You really either love walker or hate him.  I wouldn't believe anyone claiming to have changed people's minds.  The winner will have a bit over 50%.  The loser will have a bit under.

There is indeed a feeling that Barrett is coming from behind, but again, with so few undecideds, I don't know that means much.  I am guessing a call will not be made until at least 10 pm, assuming Waukesha county doesn't show any irregularities.