Bloomberg: Four Way Dead Heat in Iowa

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/romney-two-way-race-is-now-four-way-republican-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucuses.html

[Badger]

OK, color me jaded but I need corroboration before I believe Paul overnight nearly doubled the numbers he's had in IA for eons....

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

lol @ Romney

[Eraserhead]

Selzer and Co. did this. The same people who do the Des Moines Register poll. I would not dismiss it too quickly.

[Zarn]

Selzer and Co. did this. The same people who do the Des Moines Register poll. I would not dismiss it too quickly.

I'm not so sure. I have not been paying attention closely to presidential primary polls before, and I find all of these polls a bit erratic. I know pollsters do not always agree, and that there is a margin of error and all that; however, some are not even close to one another.

Edit: Found this little piece.

"Among likely caucus-goers who say their minds are made up, Paul leads with 32 percent, followed by Romney at 25 percent and Gingrich, a former House speaker, at 17 percent."

[Bull Moose Base]

Jed Lewison backs up my theory on national campaigning having more value than retail campaigning.  Which begs question: why go early?

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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/11/15/1036603/-Iowa-poll:-Newt-Gingrich-and-Ron-Paul-join-Herman-Cain-and-Mitt-Romney-in-four-way-race

[Tender Branson]

Should be fun.

Paul currently has about 2-3x the support he had in November 2007 polls.

[Angel of Death]

Would Ron Paul winning Iowa be like a roulette ball falling into a green pocket?

[Bull Moose Base]

Would Ron Paul winning Iowa be like a roulette ball falling into a green pocket?

My favorite analogy in a long time.

I've wondered if someone wins Iowa without cracking 20% will the momentum go to him or her or the meme that "there's no frontrunner'  Paul winning would be so hilarious that maybe it's potential to be a new story would trump a weak win.  Then again, if there's a way for the media to diminish a Paul win...

[memphis]

So, if Paul wins (even with 20%), does media finally start taking him seriously? He's a serious guy with serious ideas. Not my ideology, putting it mildly, but it's real. Which is more than most of the wacky GOP field that CNN or whoever treats like serious people.

[RI]

I wouldn't mind seeing Ron Paul win Iowa if just to see what the map would look like. It would be fascinating, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.

[Torie]

The turnout models for these Iowa caucus polls must be interesting. Paul might get 20% simply because his perfervid supporters will get their vote out on a cold winter's night, after having had to endure a period of listening to supporters of other candidates yip and yap for an hour or whatever. That takes dedication. It is not like they are tempted much be the other candidates anyway. Paul is a man alone.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So, if Paul wins (even with 20%), does media finally start taking him seriously? He's a serious guy with serious ideas. Not my ideology, putting it mildly, but it's real. Which is more than most of the wacky GOP field that CNN or whoever treats like serious people.

"Mitt Romney comes close second in Iowa, Gingrich third, Paul also performs!"

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Turnout gave Paul a sizable advantage over the polls in caucus states. IIRC he performed 3% better than what the most favourable poll said he would in Iowa and moreso in states like Washington, Montana, North Dakota. It probably makes the most sense to assume Paul will perform a bit better than the polls say in caucus states, and maybe a little worse in primary states (unless he wins Iowa, isn't marginalized out of existence, and gains the momentum to put up a fight against Romney, in which case he might do good in primary states too)

[redcommander]

At least the Grinch is in 4th. I wouldn't mind Paul winning if it means the flavors of the month lose momentum.

[King]

What are Paul's favorables among the NH GOP? If he won Iowa, they might actually take a serious look at him.

[Jacobtm]

Paul will always be marginalized cause he's shifty-eyed. He could win the Iowa caucuses and the media will talk about how it's a victory for Romney or Gingrich.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Paul will always be marginalized cause he's shifty-eyed. He could win the Iowa caucuses and the media will talk about how it's a victory for Romney or Gingrich.

A Paul win totally changes the game.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

The interesting thing is after the CNBC debate, Paul saw a rocket in the Iowa Electronic Markets.  I predicted he'd drop when polls hold him at the bottom of the pack, but now that he's gained here, I'm a bit more intrigued.

Then again, this could just be an outlier, so we'll have to see what more polls say.

For reference, here's the IEM share prices:

[cavalcade]

You know, I'm starting to come around to actually believing that if all of the following happen:

- Cain and Newt maintain their support levels
- Bachmann and/or Perry does a mini-surge
- weather on caucus night (Jan. 3) is bad

then Paul wins Iowa.

[Lief 🗽]

Let's wait for another poll that shows Paul anywhere near this high before we start taking this guy seriously, folks.

[Thomas D]

If Paul wins Iowa the internet's going to melt. It'd be fun to see.

But I'd like to see another poll or two with Paul north of 15 or so before I buy into this.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Let's wait for another poll that shows Paul anywhere near this high before we start taking this guy seriously, folks.

"Let's wait for another poll that shows Obama beating Clinton before we start taking this seriously, folks"

[The Mikado]

TBH, I'd love to see Ron Paul win Iowa for the absolute hilarity as the GOP tries to pretend it didn't happen.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

This makes me a happy Carl.

[Lief 🗽]

Let's wait for another poll that shows Paul anywhere near this high before we start taking this guy seriously, folks.

"Let's wait for another poll that shows Obama beating Clinton before we start taking this seriously, folks"

Right, if there had only been a single poll showing Obama beating Clinton in 2008 I would not have taken it seriously. But there was more than one poll showing that.