Bloomberg: Four Way Dead Heat in Iowa

[California8429]

At least the Grinch is in 4th. I wouldn't mind Paul winning if it means the flavors of the month lose momentum.

That's a spin since it's within 3 points

[Zarn]

TBH, I'd love to see Ron Paul win Iowa for the absolute hilarity as the GOP tries to pretend it didn't happen.

Romney gets second most in delegates!

General Election: *Insert Paul's running mate* has been elected Vice President!

[Eraserhead]

Unfortunately, if Cain or Paul wins the media will do everything they possibly can to dismiss it. If Romney wins (no matter the margin) they will declare the race over. If Gingrich wins, they may try to set him up as the Anti-Romney (might depend on his margin).

[CARLHAYDEN]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/romney-two-way-race-is-now-four-way-republican-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucuses.html

This looks pretty accurate to me, except it overstates support for Perry and Huntsman, and understates support for Bachmann.

[Badger]

Paul will always be marginalized cause he's shifty-eyed. He could win the Iowa caucuses and the media will talk about how it's a victory for Romney or Gingrich.

Correct answer, though to some degree that'd be true re: Romney. Paul is now placing second in NH. He's a few points ahead of the competition, but still FAR behind Romney. I don't' think anything short of scandal or mega-gaffe will cause Romney to lose NH to anyone, particularly Paul.

After Paul and Romney trade IA and NH respectively, the media would probably (reluctantly) call this a Romney-Paul race, with the persistant subtext of "is there any realistic way Paul could actually win?". And there's a grain of truth to that. Paul has a hard floor of support in the primaries and caucuses, but also an equally hard ceiling; without trying to gauge it too specifically, suffice to say it's well under 50%. Paul could very well win a few states, but it's questionable whether he could win a head to head state by state campaign with Mitt. Romney's fundraising and (especially) organization advantages well outreaching Paul's.

It's not impossible that the aversion to Mitt is strong enough among GOP voters that that the anti-Mitt vote would--grudgingly--rally around Paul as an acceptable alternative and nominate him instead, but I'd strongly doubt it. Short of Romney winning Iowa himself in a four-way split, Paul winning over Cain and Gingrich would be a more than acceptable alternative for sure.

[Mehmentum]

Here's the question in a Paul v. Romney race.  Where do the people who've supported Bachmann, Cain, Perry, and Gingrich go?  Niether option appeals to them.  For that reason, I don't know if there ever could be just a Paul v. Romney race if the nomination is still competitive, whoever the last conservative standing is will get a lot of conservative votes by default.

[Zarn]

Here's the question in a Paul v. Romney race.  Where do the people who've supported Bachmann, Cain, Perry, and Gingrich go?  Niether option appeals to them.  For that reason, I don't know if there ever could be just a Paul v. Romney race if the nomination is still competitive, whoever the last conservative standing is will get a lot of conservative votes by default.

Paul is a much smaller leap, considering we are winding down some of our activities overseas, anyway. These voters would support Huntsman before Romney, and they all do not like one another's candidate either.

Sarah Palin talks up Paul whenever she can. The Newt/Cain/Bachmann/ Perry supporters are the GOPers that love them some Sarah. An endorsement would go a long way. It depends on whether we get plastic Sarah or down-to-earth Sarah, come her time of endorsement. Down-to-earth Sarah exists. I heard her speak before. We all just hear plastic Sarah a lot more.

[angus]

The phone call frequency is increasing.  I got two, count 'em two, calls from Ron Paul's people yesterday.  And I'm up to about two pieces of Ron Paul junkmail per week now.

Honestly, though, I don't see as many PAUL signs out and about as last time.  I guess people had more discretionary income at that time, and could afford the enormous yardsigns.

The serious Republicans I know all still like Mitt.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Romney win my precinct and Paul come in second, which is exactly what happened last time.  Not that my precinct is particularly representative of the state.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The phone call frequency is increasing.  I got two, count 'em two, calls from Ron Paul's people yesterday.  And I'm up to about two pieces of Ron Paul junkmail per week now.

Honestly, though, I don't see as many PAUL signs out and about as last time.  I guess people had more discretionary income at that time, and could afford the enormous yardsigns.

The serious Republicans I know all still like Mitt.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Romney win my precinct and Paul come in second, which is exactly what happened last time.  Not that my precinct is particularly representative of the state.

Paul's campaign is very different this year. People are poorer from the recession so he's not rolling in moneybomb cash, but the campaign isn't floundering around like a dead fish and throwing money at retarded ads. It actually has phonebanks, canvasses, polls, town halls, etc rather than blimps and snowballs being thrown at Hannity.

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Paul isn't that much of a jump. A lot of the BCPG supporters (ignoring their bedrock of maybe 3% each or so) just go for them because the media builds them up as the candidate of the month and then brings them down with scandals. Were Paul that candidate, most would be okay with it (especially considering one of the biggest reasons many Republicans don't support him is because they think he can't win). Anyway, going by these polls he has the least amount of people absolutely refusing to back him besides Romney, so there's that.