NH Primary: Gingrich catches Romney!

[CLARENCE 2015!]

http://nhjournal.com/2011/11/18/poll-romney-gingrich-in-statistical-dead-heat-in-n-h/

29 Romney
27 Gingrich
16 Paul
10 Cain
8 Huntsman
2 Bachmann
2 Perry
1 Santorum

Other news- Paul/Hunstman doing pretty well

[Meeker]

Mitt Romney HQ: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7yp2CCULHA

[CLARENCE 2015!]

HAHAHAHAHAHAA

[MasterJedi]

Go Newt!

[Psychic Octopus]

I'm beginning to think that having a solid organization or good "fundamentals" doesn't matter in this day and age. It's less about the ground game, and more about the soundbites put into the media. I mean, what else could account for Cain and Newt's rise? Newt's entire campaign team ditched him, and Cain loses top staffers every couple of months. Romney's had the strongest campaign team from the get-go, with electioneering veterans around him as well as large numbers of people in the swing states. Yet he can't shuffle past 30% nationally, and now in NH, his "safe" state, he leads by two. Unless this poll is an outlier, I would expect that whoever wins Iowa, wins New Hampshire.

[Yank2133]

I am starting to feel really bad for Mitt Romney, he wins every single debate and he sounds the most presidential, but he just doesn't move the polls.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

This also makes it clear- whoever the initial frontrunner is will fall. Maybe Romney can pick back up, but Presidents Dean, Giuliani, and Hillary Clinton aren't bettin those odds.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

I am starting to feel really bad for Mitt Romney, he wins every single debate and he sounds the most presidential, but he just doesn't move the polls.

I think he simply is too clearly an embodiment of what people don't like about politiicians. Fair or not- he's handsome&rich which most people aren't, and he will say anything to win

[Meeker]

I'm beginning to think that having a solid organization or good "fundamentals" doesn't matter in this day and age. It's less about the ground game, and more about the soundbites put into the media. I mean, what else could account for Cain and Newt's rise? Newt's entire campaign team ditched him, and Cain loses top staffers every couple of months. Romney's had the strongest campaign team from the get-go, with electioneering veterans around him as well as large numbers of people in the swing states. Yet he can't shuffle past 30% nationally, and now in NH, his "safe" state, he leads by two. Unless this poll is an outlier, I would expect that whoever wins Iowa, wins New Hampshire.

I think there's a lot of truth to this and one of the more interesting things about this cycle. However, we shouldn't really jump to conclusions about this until voting actually occurs. It's a lot easier for Cain and Gingrich supporters to say they support them in a telephone poll than it is for them to actually show up and vote... we could have a situation where the campaigns that built a good infrastructure in Iowa and NH end up doing a lot better than they're polling. We just won't know until Election Day.

[Mr. Morden]

This also makes it clear- whoever the initial frontrunner is will fall. Maybe Romney can pick back up, but Presidents Dean, Giuliani, and Hillary Clinton aren't bettin those odds.

Kerry was the "frontrunner by default" many months before Dean became frontrunner.  And McCain was the frontrunner before Giuliani was.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Mitt Romney HQ: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7yp2CCULHA

LOL...perhaps Gordon Lightfoot will write a new song entiltled The Wreck of the Mittens Romney

[Verily]

I'm beginning to think that having a solid organization or good "fundamentals" doesn't matter in this day and age. It's less about the ground game, and more about the soundbites put into the media. I mean, what else could account for Cain and Newt's rise? Newt's entire campaign team ditched him, and Cain loses top staffers every couple of months. Romney's had the strongest campaign team from the get-go, with electioneering veterans around him as well as large numbers of people in the swing states. Yet he can't shuffle past 30% nationally, and now in NH, his "safe" state, he leads by two. Unless this poll is an outlier, I would expect that whoever wins Iowa, wins New Hampshire.

Mostly agree, except with a few caveats:

If Romney wins Iowa, it doesn't matter. He'll still lose the overall election; the opposition to him will coalesce around whoever comes in second in Iowa.

If someone other than Gingrich or Romney wins Iowa, Romney will still win NH. NH's electorate is probably only amenable to voting for Romney, Gingrich or Huntsman (and maybe Paul). They wouldn't ever vote for Cain or Perry or Bachmann--not their style. Part of why Gingrich is such a threat to Romney is that he's not just cleaning up the anti-Romney vote. He also appeals to a lot of long-time Romney supporters because he's not as much of an unknown quantity as the other anti-Romney candidates.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I am starting to feel really bad for Mitt Romney

yeah, he must be really hating the GOP at this point.

[Tender Branson]

If these last couple of polls are correct, Romney seems to be in huge trouble.

But there are still 5 weeks until the Christmas holidays.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I think the squabble with Perry during the NV debate was Romney's Waterloo, even though Perry was the cause of the fight.  Not that Romney would have won the nomination (he never had a path to the nomination), but it put a very hard top in place and never allowed him to break 30%.

[Lief 🗽]

I think the squabble with Perry during the NV debate was Romney's Waterloo, even though Perry was the cause of the fight.

^^^^

But this newest development is hilarious. Romney's team must be pissing themselves.

[Phony Moderate]

....and every other NH poll shows Romney comfortably ahead.

Certain posters on here are as bad as the mainstream media when it comes to analysing polls.

[King]

And it seems to me you ran your campaign like a moderate hero in the wind.  Never knowing where to stand when public opinion shifted.  And I would have liked to vote for you, but the GOP primaries never did.  Your candidacy flamed out long before the polling skid.

[Yank2133]

Seriously, I wonder how Mitt feels this morning. The man has spent the last 4-5 years in that state building up support, hell he lives there! And yet still, he is apparently headed to a close race in the primary with thrice-married/gasbag Newt Gingrich.

Chris Christie has to be kicking himself,  talk about turning down a golden opportunity.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And it seems to me you ran your campaign like a moderate hero in the wind.  Never knowing where to stand when public opinion shifted.  And I would have liked to vote for you, but the GOP primaries never did.  Your candidacy flamed out long before the polling skid.

You weren’t justified with your shuck and jive
With Herman Cain, we spit in your eye
The GOP is changing, we now like the blacks
But the jmfcst’s gonna bitch slap you when the Newt gets back

He’s a Newt, he’s a Newt
Oh the Newt is back
Leading in NH as a matter of fact
You can’t bitch, you can’t bitch
`Cause Newt’s better than you
It's the way that you flipped
And in the polls you’re a flop

[Simfan34]

I'm beginning to think that having a solid organization or good "fundamentals" doesn't matter in this day and age. It's less about the ground game, and more about the soundbites put into the media. I mean, what else could account for Cain and Newt's rise? Newt's entire campaign team ditched him, and Cain loses top staffers every couple of months. Romney's had the strongest campaign team from the get-go, with electioneering veterans around him as well as large numbers of people in the swing states. Yet he can't shuffle past 30% nationally, and now in NH, his "safe" state, he leads by two. Unless this poll is an outlier, I would expect that whoever wins Iowa, wins New Hampshire.

And that's a shame.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Solid Romney > Toss-up

Never thought I'd see the day.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

LOL @ Perry

Also, I still think Romney will win NH, though he'll have to fight a bit for it. Newt may not shoot himself in the foot, but he will settle a bit from this new bump. From here on out, it's Mitt and Newt.

[Yelnoc]

Now, now.  Let's wait for confirmation on this before jumping the gun.

[redcommander]

....and every other NH poll shows Romney comfortably ahead.

Certain posters on here are as bad as the mainstream media when it comes to analysing polls.