All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
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« on: November 18, 2011, 04:38:54 PM » |
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Since then, Democrats have been mostly playing defense electorally, and when they do play offense, like during the Bill Clinton presidential campaigns, they make conspicuous moves toward the center to capture a larger share of the post-Reagan electorate.
The exception to the rule was the 2008 presidential campaign, but that was because the Democrats were really on the offensive, with a big opening after a horribly unpopular Republican President, a global economic meltdown, two wars, and a newly elected Democratic Congress, and Obama's campaign was much more innovative than the party establishment that backed Clinton. But, Obama needed the party establishment's support to win, and Obama's political stances really aren't very different from the Clintons (all three are centrist, post-Reagan "New Democrats" in practice.)
As for the Republicans...since Reagan, every GOP presidential candidate has run a Reagan-esque campaign on policy issues. Though George HW Bush and Bob Dole were, in retrospect, rather 'moderate" establishment Republicans, the precedent was set. Furthermore, by the time of Bush Sr's Presidency the Republican Party as a whole had shifted considerably to the right from where they were before Reagan's Presidency. By the time George W Bush was nominated in 2000, the "establishment" and the "conservative" wings of the GOP were pretty much integrated into a cohesive bloc. Bush had the support of much of the GOP, both the "grassroots" and the "establishment", especially after 9/11 and during the first few years of the War in Iraq.
Now, 2008 rolls around, and the GOP is in a crisis. They have invested so much into the Presidency of George W Bush, and for what? 30 percent approval ratings? Unpopular wars? An economy on the brink of collapse? An exploding federal budget deficit? The scorn of the international community?
John McCain, the "maverick" candidate from 2000, ironically, could have been the man to save the GOP from the albatross of George W Bush's Presidency. But, he had to make a choice-maintain his appeal among Independents and moderates, or activate the increasingly alienated GOP "base." With the selection of Sarah Palin as VP, he chose the latter-a decision which has lead to the Tea Party and the GOP "establishment" increasingly locked in a power struggle that's also a kind of co-dependency, with a lot of overlap between the two factions.
Look at the 2012 GOP primary candidates. Neither the Tea Party-supported candidates, nor the "establishment' candidates have that much to offer. There isn't a clear candidate who has a lot of positive traits...it's really a question of who has the least negativetraits. Increasingly, it looks like Romney is that candidate who has the best shot in the general against Obama.
At the same time, President Obama isn't doing too well, with the bad economy and all. Many Americans are sick of both parties. I don't expect turnout to be that high in 2012.
I predict a close election. This is the political legacy Ronald Reagan has left America. Hopefully, we can collectively get a hold of our selves, before the polarization, pettiness, and increasingly inane campaigns tear us completely apart.
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