TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
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  TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #50 on: May 29, 2012, 07:38:24 PM »

So far PPP is looking pretty accurate. With 1% in it's Dewhurst 45, Cruz 29, Leppert 18.
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Reginald
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« Reply #51 on: May 29, 2012, 07:47:05 PM »

DFW's pretty close between all three, according to what looks to be mostly early voting so far. Dewhurst's looking strong in the rural counties, but that's not a surprise.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #52 on: May 29, 2012, 07:50:00 PM »

My own inkling is that if Leppert continues to hold the DFW fort a runoff is assured. Could be wrong though.
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California8429
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« Reply #53 on: May 29, 2012, 08:02:30 PM »

Anyone have a place with a colored map as the results come in?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #54 on: May 29, 2012, 08:06:52 PM »

None that I'm aware of. Plus there are way too many candidates this round. Tongue
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #55 on: May 29, 2012, 08:08:34 PM »

So far Dewhurst seems to be crawling upwards... about 0.1-0.2% every time something comes in.  Still very early though.
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Reginald
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« Reply #56 on: May 29, 2012, 08:12:02 PM »

First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #57 on: May 29, 2012, 08:12:17 PM »

Dewhurst 47, Cruz 30, Leppert 15 @ 2%.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #58 on: May 29, 2012, 08:14:24 PM »

First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5

Hopefully that changes somewhat.

How effective do you think those ads were? From what I heard you can't turn on the TV without some Dewhurst ad- complete saturation. On the other hand, it was Memorial Day weekend.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #59 on: May 29, 2012, 08:16:31 PM »

Dewhurst @ 48. *Gulp*
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Reginald
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« Reply #60 on: May 29, 2012, 08:23:51 PM »

First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5

Hopefully that changes somewhat.

How effective do you think those ads were? From what I heard you can't turn on the TV without some Dewhurst ad- complete saturation. On the other hand, it was Memorial Day weekend.

No one I've talked to has been too impressed with them (even people who are pro-Dewhurst themselves), but you're right that they have been very hard to miss.

Results seem to be coming in a bit faster. Can't help but wonder just how weak Leppert's going to be outside of DFW. Tongue
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #61 on: May 29, 2012, 08:25:07 PM »

First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5

Hopefully that changes somewhat.

How effective do you think those ads were? From what I heard you can't turn on the TV without some Dewhurst ad- complete saturation. On the other hand, it was Memorial Day weekend.

can't speak for Harris, but in San Antonio metro, Dewhurst was pummeling Cruz for what seems like months with those ads. Even during Memorial Day Weekend, there was certainly no shortage. If Dewhurst should avoid a runoff tonight, guess it would confirm that you want Perry on your side as a candidate in Texas.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #62 on: May 29, 2012, 08:35:25 PM »

With the PRC ads presumably. The immigration ads ran starting last week. Besides being complete BS I think immigration was a bad idea for 2 reasons. 1) Highlighted Dewhurst's own weakness on that issue 2) Killed his Rose Garden strategy and forced a slugging match with Cruz.

If this goes to a runoff then Cruz should call James and Pettinger among others to thank them. And be very nice to Tom Leppert.

Perry: He's staying positive though (especially since Cruz voters were Perry's ardent backers in '10) and at least from what I read didn't make any appearances with Dewhurst.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #63 on: May 29, 2012, 08:49:18 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2012, 08:52:08 PM by Frontline: Wisconsin »

Too early to predict whether there'll be a runoff? So far PPP seems to be holding up almost perfectly... but I'd feel a little better with Leppert at 15-6 and Dewhurst at 45-6.

10% in: Dewhurst 48, Cruz 31, Leppert 14.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #64 on: May 29, 2012, 09:03:44 PM »

15% in, numbers still unchanged. Almost eerie. Even weirder is how Dewhurst edges Leppert in Dallas while FW is a 3-way contest.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #65 on: May 29, 2012, 09:09:44 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2012, 09:11:59 PM by Frontline: Wisconsin »

Apparently Leppert has conceded. After losing his own city to Dewhurst... OUCH. Tongue Cruz at least has the excuse that Dewhurst is also a Houston native.

21% in: Dewhurst 47, Cruz 31, Leppert 14. Looks like my prediction is doing OK for now.
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Reginald
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« Reply #66 on: May 29, 2012, 09:10:40 PM »

The SoS seems to be a bit behind, but they're showing Cruz doing better among those who voted today:

EARLY VOTES
Dewhurst 47.11%
Cruz 29.33%
Leppert 15.06%

TOTAL
Dewhurst 46.84%
Cruz 30.15%
Leppert 14.52%
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #67 on: May 29, 2012, 09:16:07 PM »

Not by much. Some Texans on another site I visit say that a runoff is now happening... would like to think so given how static this whole thing has been. No one moving more than 1.5 either way, Dewhurst never hitting 48.
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Reginald
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« Reply #68 on: May 29, 2012, 09:26:09 PM »

Big dump in Harris, and Dewhurst went down about a point. It's certainly looking like a runoff to me. That PPP poll really was right on.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #69 on: May 29, 2012, 09:32:14 PM »

Awesome. Cheesy  Incidentally this is the first GOP Senate runoff since GHWB ran in '64.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #70 on: May 29, 2012, 09:36:51 PM »

Politico is also projecting a runoff. Have the local media done so yet?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #71 on: May 29, 2012, 09:47:33 PM »

Never mind- everyone's called a runoff. With 43% in, Dewhurst 46, Cruz 32, Leppert 14.
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Miles
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« Reply #72 on: May 29, 2012, 10:03:18 PM »

PPP looks like its doing pretty well so far...it had Dewhurst up 46-29-15.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #73 on: May 29, 2012, 10:08:52 PM »

Yep. Still a bit surprised that Leppert lost Dallas County. PPP agrees with Reg: just Tweeted that Dewhurst won earlies by 18 but today's vote by 6.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #74 on: May 29, 2012, 10:12:59 PM »

Perry reiterates his support for Dewhurst- "We must send a proven conservative like David Dewhurst to Washington" in a statement.
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