TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish

[RogueBeaver]

As the Economist notes.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/11/politics-local

[RogueBeaver]

"Mr. Dewhurst, a friend of the fetus and the 1%"

lol

A friend of moderates and the state establishment is more like it. We're seeing this pattern emerge fairly often in GOP primaries since 2010: a star candidate supported by the national intelligentsia in alliance with the TP (what I call "fusionist") v. a local-establishment candidate with moderately conservative views.

[RogueBeaver]

Dewhurst wil probably start debating in the New Year- the media pressure will become too great.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/us/sometimes-its-just-easier-to-run-against-obama.html

[RogueBeaver]

The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.

But an extra few months for the Republicans does. Polling is a total crapshoot, but by all indications Cruz is handily winning the ground war.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/primary-deal-wi.php

[RogueBeaver]

The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.

Sean Hubbard

Daniel Boone

Well at least they'll be able to run a warm body against whoever the Republicans nominate (Hopefully Cruz).

So is this Tara Hollis or Alvin Greene level of desperation?

[RogueBeaver]

The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.

Sean Hubbard

Daniel Boone

I seriously think I might look older than Hubbard...and I'm 17.

I think he looks younger than Mandel.

[RogueBeaver]

Democrats can always vote for Leppert or Dewhurst. Especially Leppert. Dewhurst is more a KBH clone (minus her pro-choice position).

[RogueBeaver]

In continuing with news that won't affect the outcome of this race at all, former football player, current ESPN personality, and all-around smarmy jackass Craig James is entering the Republican primary.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/espn-college-football-analyst-craig-james-to-run-for-us-senate-in-texas-gop-fundraiser-says/2011/12/19/gIQAvZ9h4O_story.html

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So there's that.

This is really shaping up to quite the mundane race.

Yep. Given how late the primary now is, Cruz should have a smooth ride over Deweyhurst.

[RogueBeaver]

Perry endorses Dewhurst.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/perry-supportin.php

[RogueBeaver]

Cruz is now outraising both Dewhurst and Leppert (who's not a threat anyways) in funds- and Deweyhurst is in debt to boot despite most of his cash being his own. Tomorrow's debate should be fun.

http://www.texasgopvote.com/2012-elections/texas-us-senate-debate-jan-12-w-cruz-dewhurst-james-addison-leppert-cruz-1-fundr-003719

[RogueBeaver]

Now we know why Dewhurst ducked all those debates- Cruz is wiping the floor with him. Plus Dewhurst kept stuttering, speaking so slowly you'd think he's drugged, and had a couple of 30-second pauses before answering.

[RogueBeaver]

Name ID, name ID, name ID. Dewhurst knows that once name ID equalizes and it becomes an ideological referendum, he'll share the 2010 fate of the woman he wants to replace. Runoff's not till June and Cruz has guaranteed himself a slot in there.

[RogueBeaver]

Cruz has now pulled even with Dewhurst in fundraising.

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/289091/cruz-ing-past-4-million-mark

[RogueBeaver]

TPE has endorsed Cruz.

[RogueBeaver]

Perry has endorsed Dewhurst, but the LG's 38-27 lead is entirely due to name recognition. All 3 candidates are on the air.

http://atr.rollcall.com/texas-gop-senate-candidates-place-major-ad-buys/

[RogueBeaver]

The last PPP poll pegged it at 38-27. Cruz will do to Dewhurst what Perry did to KBH come runoff time.

[RogueBeaver]

Huh? That's a bit higher than UT/TT and BOR had it. Also, if Texans want Dewhurst then there's no point in KBH retiring. Apart from abortion they're identical on the issues and of similar age. And at least KBH can speak in public.

[RogueBeaver]

As a Democrat who is voting for Santorum for the lulz and believes that the ultimate goal of politics should be the abolition of the wage system, which Republican should I support in the Senate primary? I assume Dewhurst is the more "moderate" (hahaha) one? Do any of the candidates have any zany libertarian positions like drug legalization or scrapping the PATRIOT act or opposing SOPA and CISPA and similar?

Dewhurst is a pro-life, male KBH. James doesn't have any issues, just an empty suit. Ideologically I'd peg the continuum as Dewhurst -> Leppert -> Cruz.

[RogueBeaver]

Reg, which result sounds more accurate to you? The TT/UT one or this one? I'm a bit surprised at Dewhurst tying Cruz among TP voters.

[RogueBeaver]

Dewhurst is quite deservedly getting a lot of blowback for that ridiculous ad accusing Cruz of supporting amnesty. I'd call it projection. Dewhurst supports in-state tuition for illegals, supports sanctuary cities, opposes E-Verify and a fence. A guy left of Obama on immigration tied among TP voters? Yeah right.

[RogueBeaver]

All of Dewhurst's attacks are guilt-by-association smears, including this one.* Race baiting is Crist all but calling Rubio a coconut 2 years ago.

*In this case, apparently because Cruz serves on the board of 2 Hispanic organizations with members who support Dewhurst's immigration policy, Cruz must be the amnesty candidate.

** The other attack is that Cruz's law firm once represented a PRC company in a dispute with an American company. So he's a PRC apologist. 

http://lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2012-05-25/dewhurst-cruz-put-dukes-over-immigration

[RogueBeaver]

Reposted from the primary thread.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/05/five-things-to-1.php

More from the WSJ.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303395604577432072679461042.html

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently they're expecting slightly higher turnout in DFW due to competitive local races.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently they're expecting slightly higher turnout in DFW due to competitive local races.

Good news for Dewhurst

Dunno if that's true or not. Reg doesn't think so. What matters is GOTV- who/where to be precise.

My own guesstimate would be Dewhurst in the 46-48 range, Cruz at 29-31, Leppert somewhere in the mid-teens. Still think a runoff is quite likely though.

[RogueBeaver]

Wrong thread, Snow.