TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish

[Reginald]

In continuing with news that won't affect the outcome of this race at all, former football player, current ESPN personality, and all-around smarmy jackass Craig James is entering the Republican primary.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/espn-college-football-analyst-craig-james-to-run-for-us-senate-in-texas-gop-fundraiser-says/2011/12/19/gIQAvZ9h4O_story.html

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So there's that.

This is really shaping up to quite the mundane race.

[Reginald]

In continuing with news that won't affect the outcome of this race at all, former football player, current ESPN personality, and all-around smarmy jackass Craig James is entering the Republican primary.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/espn-college-football-analyst-craig-james-to-run-for-us-senate-in-texas-gop-fundraiser-says/2011/12/19/gIQAvZ9h4O_story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So there's that.

This is really shaping up to quite the mundane race.

Yep. Given how late the primary now is, Cruz should have a smooth ride over Deweyhurst.

Cruz does indeed have the momentum. I would like to see a new poll here though; IIRC, the last few have showed widely differing numbers for Dewhurst in particular.

[Reginald]

Craig James killed five hookers at SMU.

A fact that will only become more widely known as the unsuspecting Texas populace Googles him. Perfectly Santorumesque.

[Reginald]

PPP says: Dewhurst 36%, Cruz 18%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_0117.pdf

Cruz is only at +1 in favorability (15-14), while Dewhurst is at +22 (41-19). So it looks like Cruz still has some work to do. I was expecting him to fare a little better.

[Reginald]

Some good news for Cruz: Palin's endorsed him. Both Ron and Rand Paul have as well.

With this, I'd say a runoff is inevitable at this point. Dewhurst has been polling above 50 recently (though one poll was a Dewhurst internal), but now we've heard from Sarah Palin, Cruz will probably be getting quite a generous bump.

[Reginald]

Reg, which result sounds more accurate to you? The TT/UT one or this one? I'm a bit surprised at Dewhurst tying Cruz among TP voters.

I'm guessing we'll be seeing something closer to PPP on Tuesday, despite some of those crosstabs being indeed pretty odd. Cruz could certainly surprise though, especially with that Palin endorsement (Santorum's just endorsed him as well).

Good to know that Cruz's supporters are more excited to vote as well; I had wondered if the state of the Presidential primary was going to depress turnout for those more likely to vote Cruz, but that doesn't appear to be the case if PPP's accurate.

In any case, I'll be pretty surprised if Dewhurst exceeds 50. Perhaps a chunk of these Leppert voters end up going with Dewhurst at the last minute? That's really the only scenario that'd make sense to me, but Leppert's numbers appear to actually be solid.

[Reginald]

DFW's pretty close between all three, according to what looks to be mostly early voting so far. Dewhurst's looking strong in the rural counties, but that's not a surprise.

[Reginald]

First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5

[Reginald]

First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5

Hopefully that changes somewhat.

How effective do you think those ads were? From what I heard you can't turn on the TV without some Dewhurst ad- complete saturation. On the other hand, it was Memorial Day weekend.

No one I've talked to has been too impressed with them (even people who are pro-Dewhurst themselves), but you're right that they have been very hard to miss.

Results seem to be coming in a bit faster. Can't help but wonder just how weak Leppert's going to be outside of DFW.

[Reginald]

The SoS seems to be a bit behind, but they're showing Cruz doing better among those who voted today:

EARLY VOTES
Dewhurst 47.11%
Cruz 29.33%
Leppert 15.06%

TOTAL
Dewhurst 46.84%
Cruz 30.15%
Leppert 14.52%

[Reginald]

Big dump in Harris, and Dewhurst went down about a point. It's certainly looking like a runoff to me. That PPP poll really was right on.