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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  How many Governorships will Democrats lose in 2012?
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Poll
Question: How many Governorships will Democrats lose in 2012?
0   -1 (3.8%)
1   -4 (15.4%)
2   -9 (34.6%)
3   -3 (11.5%)
4 or more   -4 (15.4%)
They'll gain Governorships   -5 (19.2%)
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Total Voters: 26

Author Topic: How many Governorships will Democrats lose in 2012?  (Read 1837 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: November 20, 2011, 08:49:46 pm »
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Discuss!
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2011, 10:37:11 pm »
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If Obama becomes the first President in history to get reelected while seeing his party seats governorships, Senate seats, House seats, and more state legislative seats, my head is going to explode. 
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2011, 10:40:02 pm »
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Best case scenario for the GOP is four, NH, NC, MT, and WA.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2011, 11:10:52 pm »
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Which do you think is more likely to flip, NC or WA? (nevermind my signature Tongue)
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rbt48
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2011, 11:21:46 pm »
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I think they'll lose Washington and North Carolina.  I suppose Montana and New Hampshire could be at risk.  Delaware and West Virginia are safe holds.

The Republicans seem unlikely to lose Utah or Indiana in my opinion.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2011, 11:47:56 pm »
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Which do you think is more likely to flip, NC or WA? (nevermind my signature Tongue)

NC is way more likely to flip than Washington at this point.
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seatown
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2011, 12:04:53 am »
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I think democrats will gain governships by 2012, unless you don't count recalls happening near that time as "2012".
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2011, 12:27:52 am »
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Which do you think is more likely to flip, NC or WA? (nevermind my signature Tongue)

NC, your gal has fallen back into the 30's in PPP's latest poll, losing her Hurricaine Momentum.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_11041205.pdf

The poll also had GOP tied on generic legislative ballot and prefering GOP legislative leaders to Perdue by 1%. This is inspite of the GOP legislature having the worst approvals.

Also Obama is certain to win WA, NC will be swing state.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2011, 12:51:16 am »
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Which do you think is more likely to flip, NC or WA? (nevermind my signature Tongue)

NC, your gal has fallen back into the 30's in PPP's latest poll, losing her Hurricaine Momentum.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_11041205.pdf

The poll also had GOP tied on generic legislative ballot and prefering GOP legislative leaders to Perdue by 1%. This is inspite of the GOP legislature having the worst approvals.

Also Obama is certain to win WA, NC will be swing state.

Yikes...

I'll probably spend a lot of this next summer volunteering for her. Its gonna be tough....
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2011, 10:34:49 am »
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I think Democrats will lose North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Montana. Washington can happen, but it'll be a stretch.
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2011, 06:11:41 pm »
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Dems. keep NC and WA, and have a high possibility of loosing NH and MT. but I think they'll loose only one of them
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Nagas
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« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2011, 06:43:43 pm »
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Maybe a pickup in Wisconsin with possible losses in North Carolina and Montana. Don't see Dems picking up Indiana or Utah.
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« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2011, 06:52:53 pm »
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WA's race will likely, like last year's senate election, and in 2004 go down to the last minute as a pure tossup. Right now McKenna is ahead due to name recognition.

Certainly going to be a fun election to watch.
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So it goes. heya.
bgwah
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2011, 07:32:55 pm »
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My gut tells me WA will flip.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2011, 07:52:24 pm »
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My gut tells me WA will flip.

Has to happen sooner or later. How long has it been since WA had a GOP Governor? 21, 25 years?
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Хahar
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2011, 08:30:54 pm »
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If Obama becomes the first President in history to get reelected while seeing his party seats governorships, Senate seats, House seats, and more state legislative seats, my head is going to explode. 

Please turn your webcam on so that we can enjoy the carnage.
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redcommander
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2011, 08:37:36 pm »
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Republicans will gain North Carolina, Washington, New Hampshire, and Montana.
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bgwah
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« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2011, 09:43:20 pm »
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My gut tells me WA will flip.

Has to happen sooner or later. How long has it been since WA had a GOP Governor? 21, 25 years?

Once Gregoire's current term has ended in just over a year, it will be 28 years. We haven't elected one since 1980.
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Former Moderate
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« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2011, 11:07:37 pm »
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New Hampshire and North Carolina are probably goners, but Democrats can still salvage Montana and Washington.
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FloridaRepublican
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« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2011, 11:21:20 pm »
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My gut tells me WA will flip.

Has to happen sooner or later. How long has it been since WA had a GOP Governor? 21, 25 years?

The Democratic streak started on January 16, 1985 and continues to this day. So that's almost 27 years.
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scoopa
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« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2011, 11:23:59 am »
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I think NC is gone. Likely R.

McKenna is the best possible recruit for the republicans in WA, but Inslee is a very solid one for the dems too. I'd say Gregoire's unpopularity make it a toss-up/tilt R. If it wasn't a presidential year or if there wasn't mail voting, McKenna would win.

I think LaMontagne is favoured to win in New Hampshire unless Romney isn't the nominee or there's a competitive primary with Ted Gantsas. Slightly lean R.

Montana is hard to say, need to see how the Republican primary develops and Bullock is a good candidate for the Democrats. If it's Bullock vs. Hill, I'd rate it a pure tossup.

West Virginia is lean D unless Maloney enters the race. With Obama on the dem ticket, it could quickly become a race. I don't believe he wants to run again so soon though (and he shouldn't).

Missouri is safe/likely D, depending on which Republican candidates enter the race now that Kinder is gone.

I don't think Democrats will pick IN or UT. Not with Obama on the ticket. I also doubt they can beat Walker on a recall election.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2011, 03:38:15 pm »
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My gut tells me WA will flip.

Has to happen sooner or later. How long has it been since WA had a GOP Governor? 21, 25 years?

Once Gregoire's current term has ended in just over a year, it will be 28 years. We haven't elected one since 1980 1984 1980.

Edit: reading is important
« Last Edit: November 22, 2011, 07:37:46 pm by greenforest32 »Logged
bgwah
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2011, 05:19:06 pm »
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My gut tells me WA will flip.

Has to happen sooner or later. How long has it been since WA had a GOP Governor? 21, 25 years?

Once Gregoire's current term has ended in just over a year, it will be 28 years. We haven't elected one since 1980 1984.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_1980

Your correction implies the last one was elected in 1984. My original post was correct.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2011, 07:36:07 pm »
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My gut tells me WA will flip.

Has to happen sooner or later. How long has it been since WA had a GOP Governor? 21, 25 years?

Once Gregoire's current term has ended in just over a year, it will be 28 years. We haven't elected one since 1980 1984.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_1980

Your correction implies the last one was elected in 1984. My original post was correct.

Oh shoot, you're right. I was too focused on dates that I read it wrong. Sorry about that Tongue
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #24 on: November 22, 2011, 07:59:06 pm »
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Though technically I asked how long ago you guys had one, not how long ago you elected one. So while bgwahs answer is right it is to the wrong question. Tongue
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