CBO: Obama Stimulus Package Added 3.3 Million Jobs (user search)
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  CBO: Obama Stimulus Package Added 3.3 Million Jobs (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBO: Obama Stimulus Package Added 3.3 Million Jobs  (Read 6559 times)
bullmoose88
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« on: November 23, 2011, 11:33:18 AM »

I've generally taken CBO estimates with a grain of salt.  Each side trots them out when it suits them and the numbers don't always hold up.  Not that the calculations are wrong or malicious or biased...just that $hit happens and modeling that stuff is inherently tricky.

That said...Sun Myung Moon's single ply is a reliable source but Politico is not...I guess reliable now means...agrees with ALLCAPSNAME, eh?
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2011, 12:00:30 PM »

I've generally taken CBO estimates with a grain of salt.  Each side trots them out when it suits them and the numbers don't always hold up.  Not that the calculations are wrong or malicious or biased...just that $hit happens and modeling that stuff is inherently tricky.

That said...Sun Myung Moon's single ply is a reliable source but Politico is not...I guess reliable now means...agrees with ALLCAPSNAME, eh?

Well, let's take you assertions one at a time:

First, CBO estimates should be taken with a large bag, not a grain of salt.

Second, CBO numbers usually don't hold up.

Third, yes there is a bias in the CBO calculations.  If they were just random errors then their estimates would roughly fall equally high or low, which is NOT the case.

Fourth, yes I understand, you believe anything that Politico posts, but nothing published by a conservative publication (which you feel a compulsion to attack),

Fifth, the 'logic' of your attack on my posting is absolutely hillarious.  Is it a allergy on your part to CSPS?

Finally, another source for you to attack:
 
IBD Editorials

The CBO Quietly Downgrades Obama's $825 Bil Stimulus

Posted 11/23/2011

Recovery: After nearly all the stimulus money has been spent, the Congressional Budget Office now admits it cost more than advertised, did less to boost growth and will hurt the economy in the long run.

http://news.investors.com/ArticlePrint.aspx?id=592709&p=1



Hold up there for a minute hombre.

Aside from you taking some exception to a commonly accepted figure of speech simply for understating its magnitude, I shudder to say this...we're sort of on the same page...until we get to the bias part...which aside from your assertion attacking them for...hanky panky, you really haven't proffered evidence for it.  You might spotlight a few choice cherrypicked articles and say...there...look.  But I'm guessing none of those articles contains anything actually accusatory.

Moving on....


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Now see, I don't think the aforementioned post of mine said anything about believing the Politico post.  You think Politico liberal or left leaning...ok...challenging such an opinion is a waste of time, even if i felt it worth challenging.  What you missed was that I didn't endorse Politico or the CBO.  In fact, I think the first half of my post indicated that I was skeptical towards the article's report that 3.3M jobs were created (or saved I guess) because the CBO said so.

The issue I was pointing out was you entirely dismissing Politico out of hand for its orientation and substituting in its place not just a conservative based paper...but one created by Sun Myung Moon and the UC.  The fact its a conservative or right of center broadsheet isn't why I called it into question.  The fact that you dismissed an opposing article on ideological grounds but then submitted Moon's paper was the "through the looking glass" type thing I was jabbing at.  If you went with say, foxnews, financial times, something not founded by a cult as it were...you probably don't get my response.  

Like your investors link.  CBO quietly downgrades Obamas $825M stimulus.  I have no issue with its posting/linking.  But if you had actually read what I posted in the first part of that post, you'd understand why I'm not surprised that's happening anyway.

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bullmoose88
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2011, 04:28:48 AM »

Wonkish,

You put it very well.

The "static" nature of CBO "analysis" has been under attack by economists for several years.

CBO counters that it is impossible to accurately project such changes.

The bottom line is the CBO is consistently wrong!

And honestly, I'm not really disputing that the CBO is...well...wrong...frequently...even consistently if you like...and you spelled out pretty decent reasons why it often errs.  If asked why the CBO isn't accurate, I'd rattle off many, but perhaps not all, the aforementioned reasons.  That said, I wouldn't make the leap that what the CBO does (forecasting, whatever) is malicious, or fraudlent.  Just on many occasions wrong, and there is a difference.
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