Feltham & Heston by-election

[You kip if you want to...]

The poll also says that 10% of Feltham-Heston Tories think Ed would make the best PM, so i'd take it with a grit bin full of salt.

[Leftbehind]

Yeah, the local F&H Lib Dem polling seems to be outstripping their national polling, but I suppose that's not surprising when the base started off so low in the first place - if the Lib Dems were to lose in F&H what they were losing nationally, they'd probably be in minus figures.

I noticed that unlike usual polls that offered Cameron & Osborne vs Miliband & Balls, this put Clegg with the Cameron & Osborne option, which would've probably gave them much of the loyalist Lib Dem 10% - well, more than they usually get anyway.

[Leftbehind]

A new poll by Survation in the Heil.

[You kip if you want to...]

How far should we expect the EU flounce bounce to carry into Feltham-Heston?

A poor swing to Labour and Ed M'll be made up that his honourable friends'll be going home on Friday.

[Sibboleth]

Who knows? I think we can expect some people who might otherwise have protest-voted UKIP to vote Tory though. Even if they might not if the by-election were in a few months time.

[You kip if you want to...]

Semi-related, but it seems many on the Labour side left PMQs today and went for a bitch to their friends at the papers and the leadership chatter has started again after a quiet few months on that front. MiliD's back "on manoeuvres" apparently, obviously Yvette's name's in there (canvassing? not canvassing? we obviously don't know), and er, Caroline Flint's name's being thrown around as a stalking horse candidate.

I'm unhappy with Ed as much as the next frustrated leftie, but I don't see him going...

(And Caroline Flint knifing Ed and winning in 2015 was a poor timeline idea I had a few months back, just sayin'.)

[Leftbehind]

I can't imagine anything less appealing than the prospect of a David Miliband-led Labour for frustrated lefties.

[You kip if you want to...]

I can't imagine anything less appealing than the prospect of a David Miliband-led Labour for frustrated lefties.

"Frustrated Labourites" then.

[Sibboleth]

The fact that the term 'stalking horse candidate' has been used tells you anything you might need to know: such things aren't actually possible in the Labour Party, given current rules. What you would most likely actually get would be a re-run of the 1988 leadership election, with their candidate in the role of Benn. I would hope that they would be intelligent enough to understand that, and to understand why it would be terrible for them and their faction.

One further thing that should be pointed out is that 'certain people' need to realise that the principle reason why their preferred candidate lost in 2010 was because a lot of Labour members who do not tribally associate themselves with the Party's Left had had more than enough of the antics of 'certain people' and noted that, yes, the elder brother was indeed their candidate. There are a lot of us, or at least enough to make the difference in a tight election, as everyone found out.

[Sibboleth]

Anyway, back on topic, how hilariously low will turnout be?

[afleitch]

Anyway, back on topic, how hilariously low will turnout be?

Hopefully not Hamilton West low, though it was 'blawn a hoolie' at the time.

I do hope Labour keep Ed as leader; he is a gift that keeps on giving. Speaking of leaderships in a few months time David Cameron will surpass Sir John Major's length of service as Tory leader.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

The Tory vote is rumoured to be ''strong".

[Sibboleth]

Early rumours aren't worth much, but here are a few: Labour reported to be 'confident', LibDems murmured to have come fourth.

[Sibboleth]

Turnout under 30%, apparently. Not surprised.

[Sibboleth]

28.8%. O-fficial.

[Sibboleth]

So, yeah, it seems that everyone says that Labour's won. Though I've heard nowt on by how much. Rumours about a possible fourth place for the LibDems have become ever more intense, suggestions also of a lost deposit.

[Sibboleth]

Labour hold on a nice swing. Numerical majority over 6,000; so a decent bit higher than at the General Election, despite the comedy turnout.

[You kip if you want to...]

9.33% swing from LD to LAB.
8.56% swing from Con to LAB.

[Leftbehind]

Pretty funny to see Mary Macleod inadvertently call the coalition a "Conservative government".

[Sibboleth]

Labour 54.4, Con 27.7, LDem 5.9, UKIP 5.5, BNP 2.3, Green 1.8, EDP 1.4, Trot 0.5, Elvis 0.4

Majority of 6,203 (26.7).

[ObserverIE]

Malhotra, Seema Lab 12,639 54.42% (+10.79%)
Bowen, Robert Mark Con 6,436 27.71% (-6.32%)
Crouch, Roger Michael Lib Dem 1,364 5.87% (-7.87%)
Charalambous, Andrew Lambrou UKIP 1,276 5.49% (+3.45%)
Furniss, David Robert BNP 540 2.33% (-1.21%)
Goldsmith, Daniel Charles Green 426 1.83% (+0.74%)
Cooper, Roger Eng Dem 322 1.39%   
Hallam, George People Before Profit 128 0.55%   
Bishop, David Laurence Bus-Pass Elvis 93 0.40%   

[Sibboleth]

Anyways, obviously a good result for us. If I was feeling like a hack, I'd point out that this is our third highest percentage majority since the constituency was created in 1955.

All that aside, UKIP could have done a lot better here than they actually did.

[Leftbehind]

Yeah, people seem to be saying that Europe brought back a lot of Tory votes, in which case you'd have to ask how low was their vote to go, considering they were only 0.6% above what they got in 1997!

You say since 1955 - thought this constituency was created in 1974?

[Sibboleth]

You say since 1955 - thought this constituency was created in 1974?

It was renamed when Heston proper (which is a minority of the 'Heston' part of the constituency) was added in 1974, but it was first created (as Feltham) for the 1955 election. Its boundaries have been remarkably stable over the decades, more so than almost any constituency in London.

[Leftbehind]

I see! So essentially they've beat every result of theirs except 1997 and 2001 - against a toxic opposition and a platform which said "Conservatives: we've adopted the majority of your policies, vote for us; anti Conservatives: we're not the Conservatives, vote for us!"

Worst Liberal result in 56 years.