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Author Topic: Canada Alternate 1867-2011 (requests)  (Read 4636 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« on: November 25, 2011, 05:44:28 pm »
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I'm taking requests for alternate elections between 1993 and 2011. I will make maps.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2011, 01:12:41 am by TheNewTeddy (TEDDY) »Logged

TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
RogueBeaver
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Canada


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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2011, 05:57:58 pm »
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2008 with Bob Rae as Liberal leader.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2011, 05:51:24 pm »
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I take math requests, so for example 2008 with double the Liberal vote, or, 2008 if the Liberals had 10% more vote, or, a 10% swing from the Tories.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Simfan34
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Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: 5.91


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« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2011, 06:29:40 pm »
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Ontario in the "New Acadia" timeline.
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What will happen if a hen impregnates an asteroid? Certainly, this will result in a snow storm over the Canary Islands, which will guarantee an FDP landslide in the next Nigerian election. Do you get me?
🍁 Hatman
EarlAW
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Posts: 22856
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2011, 07:09:07 pm »
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1993 with a BQ seat plurality
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http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
When do you think it will all become clear?
Antonio V
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Posts: 38022
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87


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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2011, 03:50:59 am »
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I take math requests, so for example 2008 with double the Liberal vote, or, 2008 if the Liberals had 10% more vote, or, a 10% swing from the Tories.

I want to see a NDP victory in 2011 ! Smiley Maybe you can subtract 10 points to the tories and give them to the NDP, that would give 40.63%/29.62%.
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"Never before in all our history have these forces [of organized money] been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred."

-- Franklin D. Roosevelt
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2011, 06:15:32 am »
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I take math requests, so for example 2008 with double the Liberal vote, or, 2008 if the Liberals had 10% more vote, or, a 10% swing from the Tories.

I want to see a NDP victory in 2011 ! Smiley Maybe you can subtract 10 points to the tories and give them to the NDP, that would give 40.63%/29.62%.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Smid
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2011, 06:29:57 am »
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How about adjusting the vote percentages in each province, so it reflects the national vote? Sort of removing regional variation. Not sure how you'd want to handle the Bloc vote, though.
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Pingvin
Pingvin99
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Estonia


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E: 8.71, S: 4.78


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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2011, 11:25:15 am »
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Canada elections without Quebec (Sucesssful 1995 referendum)
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"He shall appear to thee and thou shall understand,
He shall promise no salvation but let you see what is imminent."
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2011, 01:53:40 pm »
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What happens in 2011 if you have the 3% tactical swing from NDP to Lib seen in 2004/6/8?
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2011, 08:54:46 am »
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Canada elections without Quebec (Sucesssful 1995 referendum)
Will be done first.

1993 with a BQ seat plurality
Next on my list.
Technical note to self: .3 1 .65 1 .9

I want to see a NDP victory in 2011
Next on my list
Note to self: .51 1 .62 1 1

How about adjusting the vote percentages in each province, so it reflects the national vote? Sort of removing regional variation. Not sure how you'd want to handle the Bloc vote, though.
Will be done.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2011, 09:33:06 am »
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1997
Lib - 129 - 39.16%
Ref - 60 - 26.83%
NDP - 21 - 14.61%
PC - 15 - 17.53%
IND - 1 - 1.86%


2000
Lib - 136 - 39.60%
CA - 66 - 32.59%
NDP - 13 - 10.96%
PC - 11 - 14.62%


2004
Lib - 114 - 37.69%
CPC - 99 - 36.72%
NDP - 19 - 19.44%
IND - 1 -


2006
CPC - 114 - 40.14%
Lib - 90 - 33.37%
NDP - 29 - 20.79%


2008
CPC - 133 - 43.32%
Lib - 63 - 27.15%
NDP - 36 - 20.31%


2011
CPC - 161 - 47.68%
NDP - 44 - 26.38%
Lib - 27 - 20.55%
Grn - 1 -
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2011, 10:54:21 am »
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I've decided to do 2011 NDP win first as I want to work out pop vote numbers for the 1993 plurality.













NDP - 160
CPC 109
LIB 36
BQ 2
GP 1
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2011, 11:20:33 am »
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I decided to do smid's request next as it was easy enough to do











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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2011, 11:22:28 am »
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1993 with a BQ seat plurality
This is my to do list.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
When do you think it will all become clear?
Antonio V
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Posts: 38022
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87


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« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2011, 12:31:21 pm »
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I've decided to do 2011 NDP win first as I want to work out pop vote numbers for the 1993 plurality.













NDP - 160
CPC 109
LIB 36
BQ 2
GP 1

Very interesting ! So NDP gets less seats than Tories despite winning more in terms of PV. Bloc of course loses more seats, but liberals gain 2.
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"Never before in all our history have these forces [of organized money] been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred."

-- Franklin D. Roosevelt
Хahar
Xahar
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Posts: 39192
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: 0.43


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« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2011, 04:18:20 pm »
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1993 with PC and Reform vote added together
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Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2011, 07:59:18 pm »
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L 134
C 101
B 54
N 5
I 1
Maps, excluding Quebec which has no changes, will be coming shortly
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2011, 08:06:54 pm »
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2011, 08:21:37 pm »
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For Earl.

Atlantic.
L - 10 - 31.9%
P - 22 - 43.8%
R - 0 - 10.3%
N - 0 - 10.1%
I - 0 - 3.9%


Prairies (combined)
R - 32 - 41.7
N - 18 - 19.5
P - 1 - 19.3
L - 3 - 15.3
I - 0 - 4.2




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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #20 on: November 28, 2011, 08:29:06 pm »
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BC
R - 24 - 36.9
N - 5 - 24.1
P - 3 - 18.8
L - 0 - 13.1
I - 0 - 7.2


QC
B - 70 - 66.0
L - 4 - 13.3
P - 1 - 16.3
N - 0 - 2.0
I - 0 - 2.4
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #21 on: November 28, 2011, 08:44:56 pm »
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ON
P - 40 - 29.9%
L - 38 - 29.9%
R - 12 - 24.6%
N - 9 - 11.3%
I - 0 - 4.3%




NATIONAL
B - 70 - 18.2%
R - 68 - 20.7%
P - 67 - 24.4%
L - 57 - 21.1%
N - 33 - 11.4%
I - 0 - 4.0%
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #22 on: November 28, 2011, 08:59:52 pm »
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Up next is a personal request from myself.

Liberals bomb the 93 campaign, Tories do rather well, Reform wins plurality by appealing to moderate populists, Reform and Liberals form post election coalition. Maps soon.

R92
L88
P61
B52
N1
I1
« Last Edit: November 28, 2011, 09:08:36 pm by Sir Topham Hatt »Logged

TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #23 on: November 28, 2011, 09:10:10 pm »
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Note, Alberta is all Green, so no map.








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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
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Posts: 8291
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #24 on: November 29, 2011, 07:14:46 am »
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ONTARIO

2000 results, merger, 2004 ridings, same seat no as 2011 election


Reform with 12 seats in 93


93, liberals with a quarter of the vote they had in RL


00 (04 map) liberals quarter


97 liberals quarter







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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
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