Canada Alternate 1867-2011 (requests)
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Author Topic: Canada Alternate 1867-2011 (requests)  (Read 7351 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 25, 2011, 05:44:28 PM »
« edited: December 28, 2011, 01:12:41 AM by TheNewTeddy (TEDDY) »

I'm taking requests for alternate elections between 1993 and 2011. I will make maps.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2011, 05:57:58 PM »

2008 with Bob Rae as Liberal leader.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2011, 05:51:24 PM »

I take math requests, so for example 2008 with double the Liberal vote, or, 2008 if the Liberals had 10% more vote, or, a 10% swing from the Tories.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2011, 06:29:40 PM »

Ontario in the "New Acadia" timeline.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2011, 07:09:07 PM »

1993 with a BQ seat plurality
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2011, 03:50:59 AM »

I take math requests, so for example 2008 with double the Liberal vote, or, 2008 if the Liberals had 10% more vote, or, a 10% swing from the Tories.

I want to see a NDP victory in 2011 ! Smiley Maybe you can subtract 10 points to the tories and give them to the NDP, that would give 40.63%/29.62%.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2011, 06:15:32 AM »

I take math requests, so for example 2008 with double the Liberal vote, or, 2008 if the Liberals had 10% more vote, or, a 10% swing from the Tories.

I want to see a NDP victory in 2011 ! Smiley Maybe you can subtract 10 points to the tories and give them to the NDP, that would give 40.63%/29.62%.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2011, 06:29:57 AM »

How about adjusting the vote percentages in each province, so it reflects the national vote? Sort of removing regional variation. Not sure how you'd want to handle the Bloc vote, though.
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Pingvin
Pingvin99
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2011, 11:25:15 AM »

Canada elections without Quebec (Sucesssful 1995 referendum)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2011, 01:53:40 PM »

What happens in 2011 if you have the 3% tactical swing from NDP to Lib seen in 2004/6/8?
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2011, 08:54:46 AM »


Canada elections without Quebec (Sucesssful 1995 referendum)
Will be done first.

Next on my list.
Technical note to self: .3 1 .65 1 .9

Next on my list
Note to self: .51 1 .62 1 1

How about adjusting the vote percentages in each province, so it reflects the national vote? Sort of removing regional variation. Not sure how you'd want to handle the Bloc vote, though.
Will be done.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Canada


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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2011, 09:33:06 AM »

1997
Lib - 129 - 39.16%
Ref - 60 - 26.83%
NDP - 21 - 14.61%
PC - 15 - 17.53%
IND - 1 - 1.86%


2000
Lib - 136 - 39.60%
CA - 66 - 32.59%
NDP - 13 - 10.96%
PC - 11 - 14.62%


2004
Lib - 114 - 37.69%
CPC - 99 - 36.72%
NDP - 19 - 19.44%
IND - 1 -


2006
CPC - 114 - 40.14%
Lib - 90 - 33.37%
NDP - 29 - 20.79%


2008
CPC - 133 - 43.32%
Lib - 63 - 27.15%
NDP - 36 - 20.31%


2011
CPC - 161 - 47.68%
NDP - 44 - 26.38%
Lib - 27 - 20.55%
Grn - 1 -
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Canada


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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2011, 10:54:21 AM »

I've decided to do 2011 NDP win first as I want to work out pop vote numbers for the 1993 plurality.













NDP - 160
CPC 109
LIB 36
BQ 2
GP 1
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2011, 11:20:33 AM »

I decided to do smid's request next as it was easy enough to do











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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2011, 11:22:28 AM »

This is my to do list.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2011, 12:31:21 PM »

I've decided to do 2011 NDP win first as I want to work out pop vote numbers for the 1993 plurality.













NDP - 160
CPC 109
LIB 36
BQ 2
GP 1

Very interesting ! So NDP gets less seats than Tories despite winning more in terms of PV. Bloc of course loses more seats, but liberals gain 2.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2011, 04:18:20 PM »

1993 with PC and Reform vote added together
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2011, 07:59:18 PM »

L 134
C 101
B 54
N 5
I 1
Maps, excluding Quebec which has no changes, will be coming shortly
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2011, 08:06:54 PM »





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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2011, 08:21:37 PM »

For Earl.

Atlantic.
L - 10 - 31.9%
P - 22 - 43.8%
R - 0 - 10.3%
N - 0 - 10.1%
I - 0 - 3.9%


Prairies (combined)
R - 32 - 41.7
N - 18 - 19.5
P - 1 - 19.3
L - 3 - 15.3
I - 0 - 4.2




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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #20 on: November 28, 2011, 08:29:06 PM »

BC
R - 24 - 36.9
N - 5 - 24.1
P - 3 - 18.8
L - 0 - 13.1
I - 0 - 7.2


QC
B - 70 - 66.0
L - 4 - 13.3
P - 1 - 16.3
N - 0 - 2.0
I - 0 - 2.4
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #21 on: November 28, 2011, 08:44:56 PM »

ON
P - 40 - 29.9%
L - 38 - 29.9%
R - 12 - 24.6%
N - 9 - 11.3%
I - 0 - 4.3%




NATIONAL
B - 70 - 18.2%
R - 68 - 20.7%
P - 67 - 24.4%
L - 57 - 21.1%
N - 33 - 11.4%
I - 0 - 4.0%
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #22 on: November 28, 2011, 08:59:52 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2011, 09:08:36 PM by Sir Topham Hatt »

Up next is a personal request from myself.

Liberals bomb the 93 campaign, Tories do rather well, Reform wins plurality by appealing to moderate populists, Reform and Liberals form post election coalition. Maps soon.

R92
L88
P61
B52
N1
I1
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #23 on: November 28, 2011, 09:10:10 PM »

Note, Alberta is all Green, so no map.








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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #24 on: November 29, 2011, 07:14:46 AM »

ONTARIO

2000 results, merger, 2004 ridings, same seat no as 2011 election


Reform with 12 seats in 93


93, liberals with a quarter of the vote they had in RL


00 (04 map) liberals quarter


97 liberals quarter







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