PPP to start weekly Iowa tracker next week

[Tender Branson]

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/139481025351925761

PPP also had a vote on where to poll next:

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/139480655842119680

Looks like Montana and Florida won:

http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1064188-1151260

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Only weekly?

[Tender Branson]

Only weekly?

That's good enough I think - for a caucus.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Montana

Nice, haven't seen much from them recently.  The senate race will be particularly interesting

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Only weekly?

That's good enough I think - for a caucus.

I agree, but I was half-way expecting hourly the way races are overpolled these days.

[Tender Branson]

Montana

Nice, haven't seen much from them recently.  The senate race will be particularly interesting

Montana was actually 2nd in the vote.

I don't know if they poll the top 2 states, or just the winner and let's say NC.

They didn't say anywhere.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

When the hell is Indiana going to get polled?  I don't think that state has been polled once by anyone, lately.

[Tender Branson]

When the hell is Indiana going to get polled?  I don't think that state has been polled once by anyone, lately.

As far as I know there has been no Presidential poll in Indiana for over 3 years now.

[Tender Branson]

In fact, the only clues about how Obama might do against Republicans come from 2 polls from 2010:

2010 EXIT POLL for the US: 44% Approve, 55% Disapprove
2010 EXIT POLL for Indiana: 37% Approve, 62% Disapprove (-7)

Rasmussen poll from Oct. 20-21, 2010:

"41% of voters in the state approve of the job President Obama is doing. 58% disapprove."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/indiana/election_2010_indiana_senate

3-day national tracker during this time:

45% Approve, 54% Disapprove (-4)

...

So, we can only say that Obama's approval was about 4-7% lower in Indiana than nationally during or before the 2010 elections.

The difference was about 3% during the 2008 election.

The next polls will be interesting, I think they will look very Missouri-ish. Obama trailing Romney by 3-8%, and tied with others like Gingrich or trailing by about 3%.

[Yelnoc]

When the hell is Indiana going to get polled?  I don't think that state has been polled once by anyone, lately.

There is a state law in Indiana prohibiting robo-polling.  That bars PPP from the state.  I would think, however, that another outfit would have polled them by now.

[Tender Branson]

When the hell is Indiana going to get polled?  I don't think that state has been polled once by anyone, lately.

There is a state law in Indiana prohibiting robo-polling.  That bars PPP from the state.  I would think, however, that another outfit would have polled them by now.

PPP isn't exactly barred from polling Indiana. The law only says that robo-polling that doesn't have a living person first introducing the recorded call is banned.

PPP could therefore poll Indiana, but the cost of such a poll would be really high. Probably 10.000$ for a big enough sample. PPP will therefore only poll Indiana a couple of times next year so that they keep the costs down.

[Beet]

Only weekly?

That's good enough I think - for a caucus.

Well, during the 2008 primaries, I remember Survey USA had a daily poll for the California primary. And it was pretty useful to, because that was the week that there was a huge Obama surge going on, and a lot of people I knew including myself checked it obsessively every day in the final week. And the Iowa caucus is a bigger deal than a Super Tuesday primary, even if it is a big state like California.

[Tender Branson]

Montana

Nice, haven't seen much from them recently.  The senate race will be particularly interesting

Montana was actually 2nd in the vote.

I don't know if they poll the top 2 states, or just the winner and let's say NC.

They didn't say anywhere.

Now they put up a post and they will poll MT and FL today and tomorrow and release results starting on Wednesday:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/florida-and-montana-question-suggestions.html