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Author Topic: AZ-PPP: "Sen. Flake (R)" not a sure thing  (Read 1397 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 26, 2011, 12:42:49 pm »

It seems most AZians have no clue yet who the candidates are in this race. See here:

If the candidates for Senate next year were Democrat Richard Carmona and Republican Jeff Flake, who would you vote for?

Jeff Flake ........................................................ 40%
Richard Carmona............................................ 36%

If the candidates for Senate next year were Democrat Don Bivens and Republican Jeff Flake, who would you vote for?

Jeff Flake ........................................................ 42%
Don Bivens ..................................................... 32%

...

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeff Flake?

Favorable........................................................ 33%
Unfavorable .................................................... 27%
Not sure .......................................................... 41%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Richard Carmona?

Favorable........................................................ 17%
Unfavorable .................................................... 11%
Not sure .......................................................... 71%

...

Carmona is seen favorably by a 13/12 spread even by Republicans, probably owing to his past as a Bush appointee, and he gets 10% of the GOP vote against Flake. That's more crossover support than we've been seeing for most Democrats in the last few years. Flake takes 12% of the Democratic vote though, and has an early 29-26 lead with independents.

Carmona's early competitiveness has a lot to do with strong support from Hispanic voters. He leads Flake 56-19 with them in his bid to become the state's first Hispanic Senator.

...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1123424.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2011, 12:45:12 pm »

Also:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gabby Giffords?

Favorable........................................................ 61%
Unfavorable .................................................... 17%

Do you think Gabby Giffords should run for reelection next year, or not?

She should run for re-election......................... 32%
She should not................................................ 46%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1122.pdf
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Emperor Scott
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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2011, 02:26:47 pm »
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It's possible that part of the 46% that doesn't want Giffords to run for reelection wants her to run for Senate, instead.  Has she said whether she'd run or not?
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memphis
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« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2011, 09:33:28 pm »
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She was shot in the head and nearly died. I don't think she's quite non-incumbent Senate campaign material.
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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2011, 09:58:29 pm »
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Giffords isn't really congressional material anymore either. I think she should have resigned a while ago.
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2011, 10:16:25 pm »
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There's no room for pity in Congress. Sorry.
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2011, 10:46:46 pm »
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Giffords can wait until 2016. The best thing is get a surrogate candidate for House in 2012, return in 2014 and try to get McCain's seat.
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2011, 04:44:37 am »
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It's possible that part of the 46% that doesn't want Giffords to run for reelection wants her to run for Senate, instead.  Has she said whether she'd run or not?

She can't even formulate sentences properly. I seriously hope she doesn't run for anything.
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2011, 09:19:06 am »
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Giffords can wait until 2016. The best thing is get a handpicked successor for the House in 2012, and run for Senate or other statewide office as soon as she's healthy enough, 2014, 2016, 2018, that sort of thing.
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« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2011, 11:59:42 am »
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She's still very much involved though. She was serving Thanksgiving dinner to servicemen just a few days ago, and showed up to vote for the debt ceiling deal a few months ago... but I dunno if that means she'll still be interested in elected office.
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« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2011, 01:13:19 pm »
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Unless McCain retires or a major scandal involving him comes out, Giffords will probably lose if she runs in 2016.  Incumbents like him are only beaten once in a lifetime.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2011, 01:17:22 pm by Northeast Speaker Scott »Logged

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« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2011, 01:30:58 pm »
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I thought it was absolutely disgusting for anyone to think that Giffords should run for the Senate after the shooting. After watching her interview from the other week, just thinking of the classless hacks that promoted such an idea is literally nauseating. I don't think she's even capable of running for re-election but we'll see.

As for "Senator Flake," it was never a sure thing but he seems to be in a decent position.
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« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2011, 05:16:34 pm »
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Regarding Giffords, a tactful but public endorsement could be a powerful tool. And yes, it's shameless. But if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. There have been a lot more shameless things done in past campaigns. Something about McCain having a black baby comes to mind.
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« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2011, 07:21:57 pm »
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Since there's been a lot of talk about Giffords in this thread I think she should retire indeed for her own health. It's certain waging a statewide campaign for a person recovering from a freaking gunshot is impossible and her popularity won't go away in two or four years.
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« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2011, 08:40:48 pm »
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Giffords herself said she would recover and return to Congress.  I think she and her doctor are better fit to make these decisions than any of us.  I don't see anything wrong with floating around the possibility of a Senate run, though.
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« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2011, 08:52:43 pm »
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Regarding Giffords, a tactful but public endorsement could be a powerful tool. And yes, it's shameless. But if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. There have been a lot more shameless things done in past campaigns. Something about McCain having a black baby comes to mind.

First of all, I don't think anyone is complaining about Giffords endorsing anyone, at least not in this thread. Secondly, just because "a lot more shameless things" were done in the past doesn't mean they should be accepted. This would make sense if someone here justified the "McCain has a black baby" dirt from 2000. No one is justifying that. Just because that happened doesn't make something else acceptable.

Giffords herself said she would recover and return to Congress.  I think she and her doctor are better fit to make these decisions than any of us.  I don't see anything wrong with floating around the possibility of a Senate run, though.

No, she didn't say that. She said she'd like to focus on recovering and would like to return to Congress.

She and her doctor are absolutely the right people to make the final call on her career. That's why people shouldn't have been promoting her as a Senate candidate months ago when they didn't even know her status. The woman still can't formulate a full sentence and you don't think it's just a bit disturbing to talk up a Senate run?
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« Reply #16 on: November 27, 2011, 09:23:38 pm »
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Giffords herself said she would recover and return to Congress.  I think she and her doctor are better fit to make these decisions than any of us.  I don't see anything wrong with floating around the possibility of a Senate run, though.

No, she didn't say that. She said she'd like to focus on recovering and would like to return to Congress.

She and her doctor are absolutely the right people to make the final call on her career. That's why people shouldn't have been promoting her as a Senate candidate months ago when they didn't even know her status. The woman still can't formulate a full sentence and you don't think it's just a bit disturbing to talk up a Senate run?

She said that if she recovers, she will return.  That's hell of a lot more confident than most people would be after getting shot in the head.  Months ago she was said to be recovering miraculously, and she still is.  That's not to say now's the time for a Senate run, but I don't see how it's wrong to discuss the possibility in case she's fully recovered by that time.  No one's getting on their knees and begging for her to do anything.
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« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2011, 09:32:34 pm »
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Personally, I'm more concerned about some of the class of 2010 being in Congress and they have no injuries. There is a member that put a gun in his mouth in a dispute with his wife, that's pretty bad. That's another thread, though.

That said, I don't think Giffords is at all ready to run statewide, but I do think it's possible that she could fight her way back and be a good Member of Congress again. Democrats to have a viable candidate for Senate, which is the real topic of this thread.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2011, 09:36:26 pm by DrScholl »Logged
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: November 27, 2011, 09:41:49 pm »
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Giffords herself said she would recover and return to Congress.  I think she and her doctor are better fit to make these decisions than any of us.  I don't see anything wrong with floating around the possibility of a Senate run, though.

No, she didn't say that. She said she'd like to focus on recovering and would like to return to Congress.

She and her doctor are absolutely the right people to make the final call on her career. That's why people shouldn't have been promoting her as a Senate candidate months ago when they didn't even know her status. The woman still can't formulate a full sentence and you don't think it's just a bit disturbing to talk up a Senate run?

She said that if she recovers, she will return.

Right. That's different than what you said in your original post.

Quote
That's not to say now's the time for a Senate run, but I don't see how it's wrong to discuss the possibility in case she's fully recovered by that time.  No one's getting on their knees and begging for her to do anything.

She can't formulate a full sentence and it's the end of 2011. She cannot possibly recover in enough time to make a properly timed decision to run for the Senate.
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« Reply #19 on: November 27, 2011, 10:09:37 pm »
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Giffords herself said she would recover and return to Congress.  I think she and her doctor are better fit to make these decisions than any of us.  I don't see anything wrong with floating around the possibility of a Senate run, though.

No, she didn't say that. She said she'd like to focus on recovering and would like to return to Congress.

She and her doctor are absolutely the right people to make the final call on her career. That's why people shouldn't have been promoting her as a Senate candidate months ago when they didn't even know her status. The woman still can't formulate a full sentence and you don't think it's just a bit disturbing to talk up a Senate run?

She said that if she recovers, she will return.

Right. That's different than what you said in your original post.

Quote
That's not to say now's the time for a Senate run, but I don't see how it's wrong to discuss the possibility in case she's fully recovered by that time.  No one's getting on their knees and begging for her to do anything.

She can't formulate a full sentence and it's the end of 2011. She cannot possibly recover in enough time to make a properly timed decision to run for the Senate.

...And this is implying that she's going to recover.  Not necessarily by next year or the next election, but at some point.  Then she can return, or at least consider returning.

I already said only her and her doctor can make the decision.  No one is in the right place to say she can or can't decide in time.  We are only discussing possibilities.
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« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2011, 10:19:36 pm »
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She was shot in the head. She's not fit for the Senate. The brain can do some amazing things, but this woman is never going to be Senate material. Not that mental deficiencies ever stopped Strom Thurmond or Jim Bunning.
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« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2011, 11:11:26 pm »
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It's possible that part of the 46% that doesn't want Giffords to run for reelection wants her to run for Senate, instead.  Has she said whether she'd run or not?

Uh, no.
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« Reply #22 on: November 28, 2011, 09:07:50 am »
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She can't formulate a full sentence and it's the end of 2011. She cannot possibly recover in enough time to make a properly timed decision to run for the Senate.

Neither can half the congress-critters from the South, Phil. Wink
« Last Edit: November 29, 2011, 03:12:54 pm by Badger »Logged

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