NH Union Leader endorses Newt

[Alcon]

This is big for Newt! It put McCain over Romney in 08

How do you manage to ascertain that?  McCain got over 17% more votes than Romney in '08, an over five-point margin in a heavily split field...that's a lot of headwind from a newspaper endorsement.

[Alcon]

This is big for Newt! It put McCain over Romney in 08

How do you manage to ascertain that?  McCain got over 17% more votes than Romney in '08, an over five-point margin in a heavily split field...that's a lot of headwind from a newspaper endorsement.

Gave him momentum in weeks leading up to NH Primary. Romney was still ahead until very soon before

I'm just not really sure that I buy the idea of a newspaper endorsement being causally responsible for that...

[Alcon]

Well, I stand corrected

[Alcon]

Well, I stand corrected

Not necessarily. Silver's analysis doesn't establish a causal relationship.

Definitely not, and I imagine it's confounded (newspapers probably tend to endorse candidates that are increasing their showing), but that still does suggest the potential of major sway and I was being too dismissive of the possibility.