NH Union Leader endorses Newt (user search)
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  NH Union Leader endorses Newt (search mode)
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Author Topic: NH Union Leader endorses Newt  (Read 6320 times)
anvi
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« on: November 27, 2011, 11:35:11 AM »

lol!  The Union Leader pick will have no effect on the winner in New Hampshire this year.  Presently, according to the latest Bloomberg poll, Romney has a 29 point lead over Gingrich in New Hampshire, along with a 17 point lead over the nearest challenger, Paul.  Joke.  Romney will win New Hampshire in a breeze.   
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anvi
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2011, 12:08:30 PM »

Ok, but that was a 19 point spread and not a 29 point spread as exists now.  29 points strikes me as more than an inch deep.  The Union Leader endorsement is not, by itself, going to wipe out a 30 point difference.  Hey, if I'm wrong, I'll gladly and publicly eat crow on January 10th.  But I greatly doubt it.
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anvi
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2011, 02:35:57 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2011, 02:37:32 PM by anvi »

Yeah, on some level, I just can't shake my skepticism of all this.  Throughout the summer and fall, the GOP has been casting about for the "anti-Romney."  First it was Bachman, then Perry, then Cain; one by one they fell from grace as it was discovered why each were bad candidates.  This will also happen to Gingrich.  More than anything, the GOP wants to take back the White House, not just posture, and the only candidate who has consistently polled even with Obama has been Mitt, and because Mitt has done his groundwork in the last four years, he is drawing the lion's share of establishment support and money.  And, despite all the criticism of Romney's flip-flopping, he has managed to position himself in a very interesting way, taking centrist stances on lots of issues in prep for the general, but harder lines on tax reform and immigration for the nomination, and on the latter issue a harder line than some of his supposedly more conservative rivals.  Gingrich has been out of power for more than a decade, has his own flip-flop issues, has articulated positions lately that are likely to alienate the conservatives he has to court, and is incredibly undisciplined and gaffe-prone.  He is just all-around a much spookier, and more hostile, general election candidate than Romney is.  One paper's endorsement doesn't change any of that.  It's the sudden, flash in the pan, support for Gingrich that strikes me as an inch deep, not Romney's.   I'm sure my own biases are showing in this assessment, of course, so, JMO.  But if I were on the Obama campaign staff, I'd rest a lot easier with a Gingrich nomination than with a Romney nomination, for lots and lots of reasons.
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