Yeah, on some level, I just can't shake my skepticism of all this. Throughout the summer and fall, the GOP has been casting about for the "anti-Romney." First it was Bachman, then Perry, then Cain; one by one they fell from grace as it was discovered why each were bad candidates. This will also happen to Gingrich. More than anything, the GOP wants to take back the White House, not just posture, and the only candidate who has consistently polled even with Obama has been Mitt, and because Mitt has done his groundwork in the last four years, he is drawing the lion's share of establishment support and money. And, despite all the criticism of Romney's flip-flopping, he has managed to position himself in a very interesting way, taking centrist stances on lots of issues in prep for the general, but harder lines on tax reform and immigration for the nomination, and on the latter issue a harder line than some of his supposedly more conservative rivals. Gingrich has been out of power for more than a decade, has his own flip-flop issues, has articulated positions lately that are likely to alienate the conservatives he has to court, and is incredibly undisciplined and gaffe-prone. He is just all-around a much spookier, and more hostile, general election candidate than Romney is. One paper's endorsement doesn't change any of that. It's the sudden, flash in the pan, support for Gingrich that strikes me as an inch deep, not Romney's. I'm sure my own biases are showing in this assessment, of course, so, JMO. But if I were on the Obama campaign staff, I'd rest a lot easier with a Gingrich nomination than with a Romney nomination, for lots and lots of reasons.
American voters are lazy, and still haven't even begun to look at the candidates. Even republicans are barely beginning to learn the names of the candidates. Look at McCain's opposition research on Romney, it is far worse than anything Gingrich has ever flipped on. And Newt can strive that he was bi-partisan while Obama is responsible for today's partisan politics. If the candidates drop out and endorse him as the race goes on, he'll have no trouble winning against Romney since the field won't be split of the anti-Romney. With that he can satisfy the conservative base and reach out to moderates and independents on positions like illegal immigration. He's much more articulate than Romney and does better in the debates. Romney does have a better staff and fundraising ability though. But then again, he's had some week quarters for being the anointed frontrunner, Mitt Romney, and the guy who's been running for 5 years. Gingrich has been out of power for a decade, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been active. He's sat on every commission possible in that time and managed his own Newt enterprise which was extremely successful. Voters right now are getting to know Newt again, he still is building a staff and JUST laying the groundwork for networks of volunteers and money sources yet still in the lead. He had a slow rise in the polls which suggests the committed part of his base and then added that huge bump to overtake Cain and Romney. If he can solidify those wavy voters, he'll be good. He only goes up from here. He can absolutely still collapse, but this isn't a flair like a radical crazy Bachmann or anything that just appeared so everyone flocked to her because they had no idea who she was, just NOT Romney.
