NH Union Leader endorses Newt (user search)
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  NH Union Leader endorses Newt (search mode)
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Author Topic: NH Union Leader endorses Newt  (Read 6317 times)
Averroës Nix
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« on: November 27, 2011, 08:12:17 PM »

Fun fact: McCain was the first UL-endorsed candidate to win a contested nomination since Reagan in 1980.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2011, 08:21:17 PM »

Fun fact: McCain was the first UL-endorsed candidate to win a contested nomination since Reagan in 1980.

Who were the others? Kemp, Buchanan?

Reagan '76, Reagan '80, Dupont '88, Buchanan '92, Buchanan '96, Forbes '00, IIRC.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2011, 10:10:13 PM »


Not necessarily. Silver's analysis doesn't establish a causal relationship.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2011, 10:29:01 PM »

Despite that, I think we can say that it's not a great thing for Romney...

Well, the Union Leader had to endorse someone, and it sure as hell was not going to be Willard. A Perry or Huntsman endorsement would have been just as bad for the Romney campaign.
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Averroës Nix
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Posts: 2,289
United States


« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2011, 09:27:47 AM »

Why? Perry and Huntsman are non-factors. Gingrich is an actual threat (for now at least).

An endorsement that brings them loads of positive press and momentum in an early primary state would be a big deal for either Perry or Huntsman, both of whom are polling only somewhat lower than Gingrich in New Hampshire. (It would probably be an even bigger deal for the Huntsman or Perry campaigns since both of these candidates are currently receiving little attention.) Both may be non-factors in New Hampshire at the moment, but they're still potential threats to an easy Romney victory.

Gingrich's momentary strength shouldn't be overrated as an advantage before it becomes clear that the field has become less volatile. In fact, the best part about this endorsement coming now for Gingrich is that it disrupts a news cycle that otherwise would be dominated by stories about him taking millions in consulting fees from a public company.

More importantly, no matter who the UL had picked, this endorsement plays into the dominant Anyone But Romney narrative.
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