Barney Frank to retire

[Brittain33]

Didn't some western Massachusetts guy want to preserve the Olver district so he can run it in?

Whoops.

There was no way to preserve two districts west of Worcester with current population trends, with or without Olver. Stanley Rosenberg acknowledged that when they unveiled the map.

[Brittain33]

Is that map final or can they redraw the Boston-area seats to make more geographic sense and give New Bedford and Fall River their own district without almost stretching to Boston?

The map is final. New Bedford was put in with the Cape and Islands in the current configuration, which makes sense, even if the 4th as otherwise conceived is still off.

[Brittain33]

For anyone who cares, the new district cuts Patrick's percentage from about 49% down to 45%.

This was confusing and upsetting me until I looked up the race and saw Patrick only got 48.4%. I forgot about Cahill and somehow had Patrick in the low-to-mid 50s.

Anyway, I don't disagree with your assessment that this is a tough but real opportunity for Republicans if the macro environment allows it.

[Brittain33]

A Joe Arpaio-style Republican would do even worse than usual for his party at the northern end of the district, though.

[Brittain33]

A Joe Arpaio-style Republican would do even worse than usual for his party at the northern end of the district, though.

I'd surmise that the GOP has a much better shot of holding the seat by playing to the middle of the district, not the two pieces of the district that Patrick won. Brookline and Newton are not where this election will be won and lost. It'll be won and lost in places like Taunton.

Would we agree that you need a decent Republican environment for a Republican to win, with some comfortable upper middle class people turning their backs on the Dems? If so, that means lots of wealthy moderates in Needham, Newton, and Brookline who otherwise vote Democratic, voting for a Republican they consider safe. The Republican doesn't have to win that part of the district or come close, but he needs a) to get some votes there and, more importantly, b) not anger people so much that they come out in force against him.

You need a Mitt Romney or a Scott Brown, not someone who unabashedly plays wedge issues.