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Author Topic: Ranking the Senate Races....  (Read 6944 times)
Zioneer
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« Reply #25 on: June 24, 2012, 09:56:36 pm »
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The Utah Senate race is incredibly depressing; the candidate is good on paper (and in speeches), but it's Scott Howell, the guy who ran against Hatch in 2000 and who lost by 30 points. Hatch is just too entrenched, too wily, and Utah is much to ingrained into the attitude of electing Hatch to change. Governor Herbert is more vulnerable than Hatch, for crying out loud. I would bet that if any Utah Democratic fluke wins happen this year, it'll be in the Governor's seat, not the Senate.
Governor Herbert is popular though. He will still be hard to beat.

Well, of course. Herbert's very popular, and he's very savvy at being a Utah politician. I'm just saying that it's more likely that he loses than Hatch losing. Hatch hasn't spent $10 million dollars of Utah taxpayer money in a payoff to a construction company, for example. Hatch isn't the one who keeps underfunding Utah education so much that we're the worst in terms of per-pupil spending. It wasn't under Hatch's watch that a fourth of everyone in the state had their medical info hacked in some way. Hatch isn't wasting the money of Utah taxpayers in a fruitless attempt to sue the Feds for control of state lands.

All these things and more happened under Herbert. I'm not saying that any of these scandals will sink Herbert, but they're more damaging and useful to the Democrat than a Hatch scandal. Herbert's still probably going to win against Peter Cooke, but at least he's got a chance. Against Hatch, no Democrat has a chance.
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« Reply #26 on: June 25, 2012, 01:17:30 am »
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Virginia 2014- I thought Warner can't run for Governor again there because of the single term limit rule.

It's consecutive terms; he can run again in 2013 if he wanted too; it doesn't appear that he does, however.
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« Reply #27 on: July 01, 2012, 09:07:14 pm »
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Virginia 2014- I thought Warner can't run for Governor again there because of the single term limit rule.

It's consecutive terms; he can run again in 2013 if he wanted too; it doesn't appear that he does, however.

I think if Allen looses this year, he will turn around and run for governor.
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« Reply #28 on: July 01, 2012, 10:25:20 pm »
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Virginia 2014- I thought Warner can't run for Governor again there because of the single term limit rule.

It's consecutive terms; he can run again in 2013 if he wanted too; it doesn't appear that he does, however.

I think if Allen looses this year, he will turn around and run for governor.

Maybe. He's parasitic.
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« Reply #29 on: July 02, 2012, 12:53:26 am »
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I think if Allen loses this year, he will turn around and run for governor.

Possible, although I'd say Cuccinelli has the advantage.
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« Reply #30 on: July 03, 2012, 04:26:19 pm »
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So I've heard (from Politico) that the North Dakota race seems to be a lot more competitive than previously thought; can anybody give info on why this is so? Politico says that Heidi Heitkamp has proven to be a much better campaigner than everybody thought, but beyond that, why is the race so close?
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« Reply #31 on: July 03, 2012, 04:39:55 pm »
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So I've heard (from Politico) that the North Dakota race seems to be a lot more competitive than previously thought; can anybody give info on why this is so? Politico says that Heidi Heitkamp has proven to be a much better campaigner than everybody thought, but beyond that, why is the race so close?

It's not. Berg will beat the woman comfortably.
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« Reply #32 on: July 03, 2012, 04:44:44 pm »
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So I've heard (from Politico) that the North Dakota race seems to be a lot more competitive than previously thought; can anybody give info on why this is so? Politico says that Heidi Heitkamp has proven to be a much better campaigner than everybody thought, but beyond that, why is the race so close?

It's not. Berg will beat the woman comfortably.

Have you seen the polls from that race?
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« Reply #33 on: July 03, 2012, 04:49:01 pm »
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Berg probably wins due to coattails but it'll be a lot closer than it should be.
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« Reply #34 on: July 03, 2012, 05:15:38 pm »
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So I've heard (from Politico) that the North Dakota race seems to be a lot more competitive than previously thought; can anybody give info on why this is so? Politico says that Heidi Heitkamp has proven to be a much better campaigner than everybody thought, but beyond that, why is the race so close?

It's not. Berg will beat the woman comfortably.

She has a name.
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« Reply #35 on: July 03, 2012, 05:52:05 pm »
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So I've heard (from Politico) that the North Dakota race seems to be a lot more competitive than previously thought; can anybody give info on why this is so? Politico says that Heidi Heitkamp has proven to be a much better campaigner than everybody thought, but beyond that, why is the race so close?

It's not. Berg will beat the woman comfortably.

"the woman"? You're having way too much fun with this "arch-conservative" shtick, aren't you?
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kenyanobama
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« Reply #36 on: July 03, 2012, 07:28:18 pm »
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So I've heard (from Politico) that the North Dakota race seems to be a lot more competitive than previously thought; can anybody give info on why this is so? Politico says that Heidi Heitkamp has proven to be a much better campaigner than everybody thought, but beyond that, why is the race so close?

It's not. Berg will beat the woman comfortably.

Have you seen the polls from that race?

That means nothing. Once she's shown to be the lib she is, she will underperform Obama.
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« Reply #37 on: July 04, 2012, 12:04:10 am »
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So I've heard (from Politico) that the North Dakota race seems to be a lot more competitive than previously thought; can anybody give info on why this is so? Politico says that Heidi Heitkamp has proven to be a much better campaigner than everybody thought, but beyond that, why is the race so close?

It's not. Berg will beat the woman comfortably.

Have you seen the polls from that race?

That means nothing. Once she's shown to be the lib she is, she will underperform Obama.

good point.
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morgieb
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« Reply #38 on: August 16, 2012, 05:42:10 am »
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Likely Pickup

1. Maine (R-Open [was Snowe]) - King is a long way ahead. Although he has not announced what party he is aligned to, I suspect he'll be a Democrat. The only saving grace may be a sudden rise from Dill, but that looks unlikely.

2. Nebraska (D-Open [was Nelson]) - could use some polling, as ex-governors have good track records winning seats, but the race clearly favours Fischer.

Lean Pickup

3. Missouri (D-McCaskill) - when SurveyUSA has you down by 11, that means trouble. Will probably narrow once Missouri realises how conservative Akin is, but I don't think it'll be enough.

Toss-up

4. Wisconsin (D-Open [was Kohl]) - although some fundamentals are quite good for Baldwin - such as fundraising - Thompson is more appealing to independents and has won state-wide races before. Furthermore, the Republicans are likely to make a big play here at the federal level.

5. North Dakota (D-Open [was Conrad]) - Heitkamp is much more appealing than Berg, but obviously this is a very Republican state. Probably deserves some more polling, but for various reasons this is difficult.

6. Montana (D-Tester) - again, deserves some more polling - although Rehberg has a narrow lead, most of it is from Rasmussen polling.

7. Massachusetts (R-Brown) - basically a tied race. In the end however I feel that Warren will have the upper hand as Massachusetts is so blue, but Brown is a very tough opponent.

8. Virginia (D-Open [was Webb]) - a nightmare to predict. Will probably go down to a recount.

Lean Retention

9. Florida (D-Nelson) - Mack has made a lot of ground on Nelson, but whether the Ryan choice impacts on anything is yet to be seen. It could hurt it.

10. Nevada (R-Heller) - yes the state fundamentals help Berkley somewhat, as Nevada is relatively apathetic towards politics and Berkley has raised more money, but Heller is closer to the center, hasn't had any scandals and has generally raised more money.

11. Indiana (R-Lugar [lost nomination]) - internals show a good story for Mourdock, yet Rassmussen shows this race as a toss-up. Deserves some more polling.

12. Ohio (D-Brown) - he's unlucky that Rassy shows it tied and Mandel is a strong fundraiser. Else it'd be Likely D at least.

13. New Mexico (D-Heinrich) - probably deserves some polling, as Wilson could be competitive. Yet the race clearly leans Heinrich.

Likely Retention

14. Arizona (R-Open [was Kyl]) - a weird race. Flake is very conservative, and Carmona does have potential ties with the Hispanic community, so could be competitive in the right conditions, however Flake is leading by a fairly large margin, and Arizona is likely to go red again.

15. Connecticut (ID-Open [was Lieberman]) - some polls have been a little iffy, however I can't see McMahon doing any better than she did in 2010.

16. New Jersey (D-Menendez) - I still think it may be quasi-competitive in the right circumstances, given Menendez isn't very popular and Kyrillos has support from Christie. Yet it'll remain blue most likely.

17. Hawaii (D-Open [was Akaka]) - yes Lingle is a very strong fundraiser, but it doesn't look like being enough in a state like this. Given Hirono won the primary, it's hard for Lingle to get a look in.

18. Michigan (D-Stabenow) - could have been interesting had Hoestrka not been a racist.

Umm....yeah....

19. West Virginia (D-Manchin) - any state like this should be competitive, however Raese is an awful candidate.

20. Pennsylvania (D-Casey) - although Casey is less popular than you'd think, he has a fairly robust lead and doesn't have a serious opponent.

21. Washington (D-Cantwell) - maybe could've been quasi-competitive, but the Republicans only have a third-tier candidate. Furthermore, she won 55% in the jungle primary.

22. Texas (R-Open [was Hutchinson]) - moves up a little bit with Cruz upsetting Dewhurst, but the Democrats don't have a strong candidate.

A live boy/dead girl might not be enough

23. California (D-Feinstein) - won nearly 50% in the jungle primary, and is facing a fourth-tier candidate in a very blue state. Yep....

24. Maryland (D-Cardin) - not polled, but Cardin is facing a fourth-tier candidate in a very blue state.

25. Minnesota (D-Kloubchar) - Kloubchar is very popular, and the Minnesotan Republican party is in a state of disarray.

26. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse) - facing a fourth-tier candidate in a very blue state.

27. Delaware (D-Carper) - not polled, but Carper is facing a fourth-tier candidate in a very blue state. Also, Carper has a strong reputation in Delaware politics.

28. Mississippi (R-Wicker) - not polled, but Wicker is facing a fourth-tier candidate in a very red state.

29. Utah (R-Hatch) - not in Mitt Romney's year.

30. New York (D-Gillibrand) - unlike other safe races, this is polled a lot, and Gillibrand is leading by massive margins.

31. Vermont (ID-Sanders) - Sanders is an institution in Vermont politics.

32. Tennessee (R-Corker) - facing a candidate even Democrats want nothing to do with.

33. Wyoming (R-Barrasso) - running unopposed?
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« Reply #39 on: August 20, 2012, 10:44:54 pm »
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Upgrades:

Nebraska - Fischer is up by 25 according to WAA. I think we can call this.
Wisconsin - Thompson up 11, although it is Rasmussen. Probably a Lean R at least though.

Downgrades:

Missouri - you know why, although there is withdrawal potential.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2012, 02:01:31 pm »
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Upgrades:

Nebraska - Fischer is up by 25 according to WAA. I think we can call this.
Wisconsin - Thompson up 11, although it is Rasmussen. Probably a Lean R at least though.

Downgrades:

Missouri - you know why, although there is withdrawal potential.

With these changes, I think your ratings are much more accurate than Cook, Rothenberg, and Sabato. I completely agree with them.
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« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2012, 02:03:26 pm »
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Sabato has said on Twitter he's moving MO from Lean R to tossup. Jennifer Duffy of Cook said she's moving MO from Tossup to Likely D. Needless to say, Sabato's rating is more accurate.
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« Reply #42 on: August 21, 2012, 02:10:44 pm »
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Sabato has said on Twitter he's moving MO from Lean R to tossup. Jennifer Duffy of Cook said she's moving MO from Tossup to Likely D. Needless to say, Sabato's rating is more accurate.

Likely D!? Cook's ratings are fairly ridiculous anyway. He has virtually every competitive race in the Tossup category.

Quote
Republican U.S. Rep. Todd Akin’s comment over the weekend about “legitimate rape” has rendered him unelectable in his bid against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.
...That isn't what the polls say
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #43 on: August 21, 2012, 02:14:56 pm »
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He's usually very good, just an overreaction. After all we're still talking about an incumbent who's at 50/40 disapprove and stalled in the low 40s. Which won't matter if Akin is on the ballot come Nov. 6- just ask Harry Reid.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #44 on: August 21, 2012, 02:17:52 pm »
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He's usually very good, just an overreaction. After all we're still talking about an incumbent who's at 50/40 disapprove and stalled in the low 40s. Which won't matter if Akin is on the ballot come Nov. 6- just ask Harry Reid.

In the past he has been pretty good, but his senate ratings this cycle haven't been too great. I think he started off with West Virginia as a tossup and for some reason Ohio, Hawaii, and Wisconsin are still tossups. I wonder if he'll update any of them soon, especially the last one. It's pretty clear Baldwin is a genuine underdog against Thompson.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #45 on: August 21, 2012, 02:26:03 pm »
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Yep. OH is teetering on the edge between Lean/Likely D, WI definitely Lean R. Which is why I much prefer Rothenberg and Sabato.

If MO gets thrown then VA/FL become the new Senate frontlines. 
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« Reply #46 on: August 21, 2012, 08:54:45 pm »
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BTW, it appears Cook no longer has their ratings available for free. Which major rating systems, do?

As for Akin, perhaps as more publicity is made about his comments, his polling will go down even if it hasn't already.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #47 on: August 21, 2012, 08:57:08 pm »
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BTW, it appears Cook no longer has their ratings available for free. Which major rating systems, do?

As for Akin, perhaps as more publicity is made about his comments, his polling will go down even if it hasn't already.

Sabato and Rothenberg are free. A lot of Rothenberg's analysis isn't, but all Sabato's stuff is.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

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Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Talleyrand
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« Reply #48 on: August 21, 2012, 08:59:20 pm »
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BTW, it appears Cook no longer has their ratings available for free. Which major rating systems, do?

Both Larry Sabato and Stuart Rothenberg do.

Sabato- http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-senate/

Rothenberg- http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate

Oops, looks like RogueBeaver already posted.

Also, Nate Silver is releasing his model for this year's senate cycle soon.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/in-senate-races-politics-are-local-again/

You should check back for its launch.
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morgieb
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« Reply #49 on: August 22, 2012, 06:10:21 pm »
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Updates:

* Connecticut becomes a slightly better pickup opportunity, although I think the Rassy poll is quite an outlier.
* Massachusetts become slightly more of a favourable retention opportunity, but the accompanying presidential poll felt a little R-leaning.

One thing I will say though, is that too many polls feel too favourable to Republicans. So I'm not sure what polls I can trust at this stage.
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