Ranking the Senate Races....

[NewYorkExpress]

Time to to rank'em all (again)

(in order of flippablity)

1. South Dakota- Rounds isn't going to lose the primary and unless Independent (and former Senator) Larry Pressler draws only from Rounds, and Democratic presumptive nominee (the filing deadline is March 25) Rick Weiland drastically overperforms, only then does he have a path to victory... Sorry, but even the Republicans most likely to beat Rounds, State Senator (and Majority Whip) Larry Rhoden, and State Rep. Stace Nelson, could beat Weiland with their hands tied behind their backs.

2. West Virginia Assuming both Rep. Shelly Moore Capito and Secretary of State Natalie Tennant win their primaries, this should be a (relatively) close race... but Moore Capito is the heavy favorite. Right now the question should be asked whether Moore Capito or Evan Jenkins (Running against Nick Rahall) will win by more.

3. Arkansas- Tom Cotton should win this by a comfortable margin, the question might end up being how much. This isn't top of the list to flip, but I'd put ahead of South Dakota and West Virginia in terms of likelihood to flip and be a blowout, because South Dakota and West Virginia don't have incumbents running (at least not Senators) and in South Dakota's case Pressler's presence may ward against a blowout margin.

4. Montana- Bacaus's departure to become ambassador to China probably didn't change anything significantly. John Walsh, who was already running was appointed to the seat, and while in this climate incumbency would probably hurt him, it's worth noting that unless he wins he won't serve very long. Still Steve Daines is favored, and if I had to peg a margin of victory today I would put it somewhere similar to West Virginia.

5. Louisiana- Like Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu has found her self a member of very endangered species, the southern Democrat. The good news for Landrieu is she doesn't have opponents as strong as Pryor's single opponent, the bad news is Louisiana is even more blood-red than Arkansas. If Control of the Senate is even remotely up for grabs on election night, or in a runoff, this seat is gone.

6. Alaska-  The calculation is simple, If Treadwell or Sullivan win the primary, they are the favorites in the general. If Joe Miller (last seen chasing a perfectly serviceable Lisa Murkowski out of the Republican Party) on the other hand wins the primary, Begich will likely win in a near-walk. And did I mention there's time for more candidates (especially Republicans) to enter the race, with the filing deadline (for party candidates) being June, 2 (Hear that Sarah Palin ?)

7. Kentucky- Even though it's unlikely Matt Bevin will topple Mitch McConnell in the Republican Primary, (or the other three candidates, Brad Copas, Chris Payne or Shawna Stirling) the likely Democratic nominee, Alison Lundergan Grimes, has a much better chance. McConnell, being the Republican Minority Leader, is unpopular on all sides of spectrum (even when compared with instate colleague Rand Paul), which alone will, like 2008 when McConnell won 53-47 over Businessman Bruce Lusnford. There's a major similarity between 2014 and 2008, and that is that people are deeply (torches and ptichforks) unhappy with Congress, and may take on legislative leaders (like McConnell, Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner). Grimes is also (at this stage a stronger candidate than Lunsford who other than a May Rassumussen poll showing him 49-44 over McConnell, didn't really come particularly close in polling until a late September Survey USA poll showing McConnell with a 49-46 lead. The dates on that poll were September 21 and September 22, at the height of the Wall Street Meltdown. Grimes has been within the margin in almost every public poll, and as a bonus has even lead Bevin in most polling. Kentucky doesn't have a runoff like it's neighbor southern states, which helps Grimes, but may also help McConnell/Bevin in that they don't need to go through three or four rounds of elections for one seat in one year.


8. Michigan- Terri Lynn Land and Gary Peters have split leads of varying sizes. Ultimately this race is tied to the Governor's race where unpopular incumbent Rick Snyder is trying to hang on against Mark Schauer. If Snyder is winning, then Land is likely winning, whereas if Snyder is headed for defeat, Land likely will be to.

9. Cory Gardner's entry into the Republican Primary (And Ken Buck dropping down to a Congressional Seat he can (probably) win), makes this a totally different game. It's certainly plausible that State Sen. Randy Baumgardner or State Sen. Owen Hill could pull of an upset (Gardner's entry does seem to meet the definition of "late entry"- the filing deadline is March 31). I happen to think Governor Hickenlooper is in more danger than Sen. Udall, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility both could lose.

10. Other than Thom Tillis (Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives) every one of Sen. Kay Hagan's opponents are unknown and likely to make some sort of "right wing-gaffe" on the trail (if they haven't already). Hagan is tied with Alex Bradshaw 43-43, Pastor Mark Harris 43-43, leads Nurse Practitioner Heather Grant 43-42, retired Physician Edward Kryn 43-41 and Speaker of the State House Thom Tillis 45-43,  and  trails Shelby Mayor 45-43 and Former State Rep. Jim Snyder 43-42. The GOP primary features insane numbers of undecideds, and the GOP to avoid an "Akin moment" should probably pray that Tillis wins.

11. Georgia- It doesn't matter who the GOP nominates, Michelle Nunn has to win without a runoff if she wants to be the next Senator from Georgia. There are five different candidates that have a serious shot at the GOP nomination including 1/3 of the State's GOP Congressional Delegation. Nunn is tied with Paul Broun (probably the most fire-breathing member of either party in the delegation) 38-38, leads Phil Gingrey 42-40, (PPP polled Derrick Grayson in August and Nunn led him 42-36, he's still running, but he's got no shot at the primary, which is probably why they stopped polling him) leads Karen Handel 43-39, leads Jack Kingston 44-41 ( PPP also polled David Perdue in that August poll, Nunn was tied with him 40-40). So why isn't this more likely to flip than Kentucky? First, the incumbent Saxby Chambliss is retiring, whereas in Kentucky Mitch McConnell is running (and is in leadership, which Chambliss wasn't). The second answer is the runoff, which probably kept Jim Martin from winning in 2008 (although Chambliss finished first in the 1st round of balloting 49.8-46.8]. Many Democrats blamed the loss on the sharp drop in turnout (on both sides- 639,064 fewer voters voted for Chambliss in the runoff than the general, while 847,470 fewer voters voted for Martin).

12. New Hampshire- If Scott Brown runs (Filing day June 13) and wins the GOP primary (unlikely) and the National Political Climate remains similar (more likely) this race will competitive.  With Bob Smith as the nominee looks likely right now (I thought he still lived in Sarasota) Shaheen wins with ease, grace and elegance. BTW; I would pay to see a Scott Brown/Bob Smith Primary

13. Iowa- Does any Republican want to win this thing? (Ironically, the filing deadline is today).
Bruce Braley is far from out of the woods yet (he's only polling in the low 40's) but he's got comfortable leads over everyone (ranging from 15% over Sam Clovis to 9% over Mark Jacobs) (For the record those quoted numbers were from Quinnipiac)

14. Maine- First things first, Erick Bennett has no shot of taking down Susan Collins. Second Shanna Bellows is running a solid campaign (She was only losing by 39 as of November), She probably needs Eliot Cutler (Currently running for Governor) and at least one other independent to enter the race by the filing deadline (Tomorrow) in order to have a serious chance. (PPP had an August poll which showed Author Stephen King losing by "only" 54-31. I actually would love to see King pull an Al Franken, especially if/when Collins retires)

15. Minnesota- Republicans aren't showing any serious interest (although I suppose State Rep. Jim Abeler and State Sen. Julianne Ortman could theoretically be competitive) for a race where the incumbent was elected by 312 votes and is a former Comedian.

16. New Jersey- The filing deadline isn't until April 11, meaning there's still (some) time for a serious Republican (Jon Runyan? Kim Guagdano? Chris Christie?) to enter the race. If that happens (even scandal rocked Christie and Gaugdano) this race becomes much closer, (and may tilt GOP with Christie or Runyan) while if it doesn't happen, Booker gets a stroll in the park.

17. Oregon- In another 2010, or 1994 (Which admittedly, 2014 has the potential to be) Jeff Merkley could lose. Problem is we're not at that kind of atmosphere yet (or we wouldn't be talking about Democratic pickups in Kentucky and Georgia). Jason Conger isn't actually a bad recruit for the GOP, but it will take a disaster for Democrats to lose here.

18. Travis Childers entering the race for the Democrats moves the needle from "Mortal lock for Republicans no matter what" to "on very safe ground for Republicans".  Even  Chris McDaniel (or Thomas Carey whoever he is) would have to basically murder Cochran (or Childers) to lose this election. Simply, if Republicans blow an election in Mississippi, they don't deserve to exist.

19. New Mexico- This seat was only going to be competitive if Susana Martinez ran. She didn't and neither did any other remotely interesting Republican.

20. Virginia- Despite Ed Gillespie's entrance into the GOP (and probable loss to one of the "fish in the Potomac" to his right,  Anthony DeTora, A Congressional Policy adviser, Shak Hill an Insurance Professional, and Chuck Moss a Businessman), the dynamics of the race haven't changed much, instead other races (Mississippi). Oh, and fresh off of denying Ken Cuccinelli a Gubernatorial victory, Robert Sarvis is back...

Tennessee, Illinois, Hawaii, Texas, both South Carolina races, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Kansas, Alabama, Idaho and both Oklahoma races are safe (to point where apocalypse before they flip in 2014) for one party or another.

[morgieb]

OK, time to put this back up again for the October update. Will try to update regularly, but I may not. Depends on how I'm interested in this.

Safe Pickup

1. West Virginia (D-Open) - the West Virginia of old just isn't what it was. Time to write Tennant off, Capito will win in double digits.

2. Montana (D-Open) - oh dear. Well, John Walsh was forced out due to a plagiarism scandal. Now we have a Some Chick by the name of Amanda Curties. Have this below West Virginia as she is raising decent money, and as she's little known there is more room for a miracle comeback. But, nah.

Lean Pickup

3. South Dakota (D-Open) - now this is getting juicy. Yes the Rounds+3 poll may have been an outlier, but SurveyUSA have a very good record so I don't think you can dismiss it right out of hand. Rounds is still favoured, but the DCCC are spending money here, and the dynamics of a 3-way race are interesting. Don't think Weiland/Pressler withdraw, though. If they did then the race will become increasingly hard for Rounds to win.

4. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - he's the sort of candidate that excites few people and the polls aren't looking too great anyway. While Arkansas state-wide races are a bit of anomaly in America with regards to the age gap, I'm not confident of his chances of pulling off a win when he's behind by margins outside the MoE consistently. Triage time?

Tilt Pickup

5. Kansas (R-Roberts) - WTF? Yes, I was stunned too to see this race seem a toss-up. But Orman caught Roberts napping, Roberts is running an awful campaign and Orman doesn't have the issue of being a nasty Democrat (technically). While two new polls have Roberts in a better position, they seem to be outliers. Still enough time for Orman to bust, and in any case it may be easier to say you're voting for an independent than actually doing it. But this looks Pat Roberts's hardest race in about 30 years (or something).

6. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - not really sure how to judge this race when I haven't seen a lot of polls recently. But I think the path to 50%+1 in a run-off seems hard to achieve. Still, you wouldn't write off Landrieu until she loses.

7. Alaska (D-Begich) - hard to judge Alaskan polling even at the best of times. The polls do say however that Sullivan is ahead. Luckily, the Governor race is contested, so turnout seems more likely.

8. Iowa (D-Open) - what a debacle of a campaign from Braley. His polls are very bad, when he should've won reasonably easily. Will be surprising if he does come back, though Ernst is untested enough that she could still shoot herself in the foot.

Pure Tossup

9. Colorado (D-Udall) - again, this race the Dems probably should've won in the end, but now it looks like a photo finish. Why I don't know. But this looks the closest race of the night.

Tilt Retention

10. North Carolina (D-Hagan) - in general, Hagan's lead has been consistent enough to hold off Tillis. The only worry is that neither candidate seems really inspiring, so turnout will be very important here. Without a governor's race, and with the House really badly gerrymandered, the excitement gap will probably lean Republican, so Hagan is hardly out of the woods yet.

11. Georgia (R-Open) - is Perdue dropping the ball, Bruce Braley style? He's made some very weird comments lately, and is looking very out of touch. Already we're seeing polls narrow to an extent where it's basically a dead heat. The two things in his favour are - 1. it's close enough to the election that it may be harder to target the gaffes to the required impact, and 2. the runoff rule, which hurts in particular in Georgia due to the demographics.

Lean Retention

12. Kentucky (R-McConnell) - just when you thought that McConnell was looking safe, Survey USA has Grimes back ahead. Now, that could be an outlier, but there is still enough going for Grimes to make this race look interesting until next month.

Likely Retention

13. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - probably the one race which looks like it could be a smokey. While Brown is close enough to Shaheen that things could get interesting, most of Shaheen's leads are above the MoE and Brown has lost a lot of credibility in his run in New Hampshire. I would like to see some reputable pollsters poll here though.

Safe Retention

14. Michigan (D-Open) - while most people thought Peters would break away eventually, it is still alarming how Land collapsed. You'd imagine that there was still a chance of an upset here, which I can't honestly say now.

Everything after 14 is honestly safe as houses and I can't be bothered really rating them.

[morgieb]

Safe Pickup

1. West Virginia (D-Open)

2. Montana (D-Open)

Likely Pickup

3. South Dakota (D-Open) - looks like the polls showing this close were too optimistic. Rounds should win somewhat comfortably.

4. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - Pryor's clearly behind in every poll I've seen. RIP, HP.

Tilt Pickup

5. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - run-off could be Landrieu's saving grace.

6. Colorado (D-Udall) - oh dear. Yes Colorado Dems have a history of closing well, but the current voting numbers looks really pessimistic and Gardner ain't Ken Buck.

7. Alaska (D-Begich)

8. Iowa (D-Open) - closest race so far. Will get interesting.

Tilt Retention

9. Kansas (R-Roberts) - Roberts has caught up to a reasonable degree. While he's only pegged it back enough to be a tie,

10. North Carolina (D-Hagan)

Lean Retention

11. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - starting to get interesting. This state is historically rather volatile so an upset wouldn't surprise, though the night would have to be very bad to make it happen.

12. Georgia (R-Open) - Perdue looks better now. Outside chance of him even avoiding a run-off, though the early vote numbers look promising for Team D.

Likely Retention

13. Kentucky (R-McConnell) - polls are looking very solid for him now, he should be fine.

14. Virginia (D-Warner) - might this be closer than most people expect? 2 new polls have him up by underwhelming margins, and there's a lack of exciting races here which may hurt Dem turnout.....

Safe Retention

15. New Mexico (D-Udall) - Weh is sorta reputable, and one poll showed this in kinda interesting territory, but probably nothing to really fear from Udall.

16. Minnesota (D-Franken) - possible bolter I guess, but unlike comparable races there is an incumbent Democrat governor here that is popular and should mean there won't be much of a wave here.

17. Illinois (D-Durbin) - Durbin's numbers are rather underwhelming, but no reason to believe he is in danger.

18. Michigan (D-Open) - in the Spring this was considered a toss-up. Think about that.

19. Mississippi (R-Cochran) - mainly because the Dem candidate is half-way reputable, in reality this is Mississippi and Cochran is well entrenched. I would've liked to see some polling here though.

20. South Carolina-A (R-Graham) - mainly because the Dem was talked about as a potential candidate in the past and Graham isn't very popular, in reality though Graham will win fairly easily as this is South Carolina and it's not trending D that fast.

21. New Jersey (D-Booker) - as this is New Jersey, Booker might not win by a huge margin, but he'll win regardless.

22. Massachusetts (D-Markey) - Markey's not inspiring but he's safe.

23. Oklahoma-A (R-Inhofe) - Inhofe isn't that well liked, but this is Oklahoma.

24. Oregon (D-Merkley) - what a failure Wehby turned out to be. LOL Politico.

25. Texas (R-Cornyn) - Cornyn is reasonably well entrenched and Texas ain't turning blue that fast.

26. Delaware (D-Coons) - Reps don't really exist in Delaware anymore.

27. South Carolina-B (R-Scott) - Scott I imagine is more well-liked than Graham, and he's facing a black anyway.

28. Nebraska (R-Open) - Sasse should be a rising star in the Republican party. This cycle seems to favour those who can appeal to moderates and conservatives, and Sasse has that.

29. Oklahoma-B (R-Open) - Johnson is out of step for the state, and Lankford (unlike Inhofe) hasn't done anything yet to upset certain Okies.

30. Maine (R-Collins) - Collins is super entrenched.

31. Tennessee (R-Alexander) - Gordon Ball is not a serious candidate.

32. Idaho (R-Risch) - it's Idaho.

33. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - it's Hawaii. Besides, Cavasso is not a serious candidate, and Ige winning his primary probably helps nullify significnat backlash in the Asian community due to the circumstances around Schatz's appointment.

34. Rhode Island (D-Reed) - it's Rhode Island, and Reed is well entrenched.

35. Wyoming (R-Enzi) - it's Wyoming, and Enzi is well well entrenched.

36. Alabama (R-Sessions) - well done, Jeff Sessions. You are the only major party candidate to avoid a Democratic challenger.

[morgieb]

1. Illinois (R-Kirk) - while most people shouldn't take Kirk's seat for granted, he's in a lot of trouble for re-election. As this is Illinois, a good Democrat (i.e. Bustos or Madigan) will probably be able to defeat him, but he can still survive if the wrong candidate is found.

2. Wisconsin (R-Johnson) - the signs are not good for Johnson - he's not as loved by the base as Walker, he isn't a good fit for the state and unlike say Toomey he hasn't moderated. The two saving graces for Johnson are that 1. Wisconsin isn't as Democratic as Illinois and 2. apart from Feingold and Kind (neither of whom are certainties to run) the Dems bench here is rather weak.

3. Nevada (D-Reid) - if Sandoval jumps in this probably escalates to #1. But if he doesn't, Reid can probably go scorched earth against other potential Rep candidates, particularly if they aren't particularly experienced at running campaigns. For now, it's a toss-up, but it will probably move one direction or another soon enough. Dems chances will arguably improve if Reid retires, as he isn't popular.

4. Pennsylvania (R-Toomey) - this will probably depend on what night the Dems are having nationwide. Toomey has moderated fairly significantly since joining the Senate and would stand a good chance at re-election, but Sestak will give him a run for his money, and a good night nationwide for the Dems will probably help wash Pennsylvania in their wave.

5. New Hampshire (R-Ayotte) - Ayotte's approvals surprised me - I thought she was way too conservative (particularly on foreign policy related matters) for the state as a whole. But she is very popular. With the right candidate the Dems can definitely win, but I don't know much about their bench apart from Hassan, Kuster and CSP.

6. North Carolina (R-Burr) - Burr has been around for over ten years and he still isn't very well-known. While he could easily survive, a strong campaign from a solid Dem could easily knock him off. And IMO we aren't short of candidates here.

7. Colorado (D-Bennet) - Bennet is a fairly underwhelming incumbent, but the Dems overperformed expectations here in 2014, the Pubs don't have a great bench here (particularly with Gardner already holding one seat), and it is a Presidential year. For now Bennet deserves favouritism, but if the Pubs find a strong candidate.....

8. Florida (R-Rubio) - incumbency and the uselessness of the FDP probably means that Rubio will win, unless Murphy or Graham take a plunge. A potential Rubio retirement to run for President probably won't have a significant effect on the race.

9. Ohio (R-Portman) - Ohio Dems don't have a great bench, and Portman has played up his moderation rather well. He should probably win unless it's a very good night for us nationwide.

10. Missouri (R-Blunt) - hard to call. From memory Blunt was rather unpopular, and the Dems still have a bench here. Missouri isn't quite the swing state it once was though, and Nixon has lost a lot of appeal recently. Would like some polling here.

11. Georgia (R-Isakson) - Isakson will probably be favoured if he doesn't retire, but if he does there are a few good candidates the Dems can run here, particularly if Georgian Republicans pick the wrong candidate. But the 50%+1 is a killer, even in a Presidential year.

12. Arizona (R-McCain) - McCain's apparently running again, but he is about as popular as AIDS now in Arizona. Accordingly I think it is somewhat unlikely that he survives a primary. Recent history has shown Arizona as the Democratic equivalent of New Jersey - we'll always look competitive but we won't actually win the state. Unless Kirkpatrick or Sinema can be convinced to give up their seats, or the Pubs find someone really awful, the Pubs will probably retain it.

13. Kentucky (R-Paul) - McConnell's bigger than expected win here ought to give the Dems a reality check about their chances here. If Paul runs it's arguably not worth competing for. If he doesn't, then we still have a few good candidates we can run here, though Massie/Barr would still be favoured.

14. Alaska (R-Murkowski) - will be more interesting in a primary. If Murkowski wins the primary or runs as an independent, she'll win. But if she loses the primary, a solid Dem (if they can find one) will give whoever primaries her (let's face it, they'll probably be a right-winger) a fight. It will require a lot to go the Dems way to win this state, but it's not entirely out of the question.

15. Iowa (R-Grassley) - Grassley will win if he runs again, and he says he will. I suppose he could backflip though, in which case it's a toss-up, perhaps titling Dem (as long as they find a good candidate)

16. Washington (D-Murray) - the Republicans have a few good candidates that could be competitive against Murray, but in a Presidential year when someone as moderate as Rob McKenna couldn't win, they would be serious underdogs and probably wouldn't run a kamikaze misson to defeat Murray. But Murray could get upset if the night is good for the Republicans.

17. Indiana (R-Coats) - Coats might retire, but given Donnelly could only win by 4 against a candidate who made a rape gaffe, this state is pretty hard for the Dems to win. Their bench, unless Evan Bayh runs isn't great either.

18. Arkansas (R-Boozman) - Democrats probably need Mike Beebe to run to make this competitive, which is unlikely. That said if he does we have a barnstormer on our hands.

19. Louisiana (R-Vitter) - this seat will likely be open, but who can we run here apart from the Landrieu's? Even they probably won't be able to beat a reasonably reputable Republican for a Senate race these days.

20. Utah (R-Lee) - Lee's approvals are pretty poor by Utah standards, and he could face a messy primary. Still unless Matheson runs Utah is basically impossible for Dems to win.

21. Connecticut (D-Blumenthal) - Blumenthal shouldn't be in much danger (I mean Foley couldn't beat a relatively unpopular Malloy in two very good years for the Republicans), but his margin might not be as big as other candidates.

22. Kansas (R-Moran) - Moran shouldn't get caught napping like Roberts almost was. Orman will probably get crushed if he tried again.

23. California (D-Boxer) - only risk here is the top two primary system assuming Boxer retires - there's a very outside chance that it might cough up two Republicans for the general election if too many Dems run. I expect though that the Dems would clear the field better if a Senate seat was at risk rather than say a House seat.

24. Maryland (D-Mikulski) - Mikulski might retire...and Maryland did just elect a Republican governor. Still, it's hard to imagine a replacement Dem candidate being as awful as Brown, and Maryland is still very blue.

25. Vermont (D-Leahy) - Leahy might retire, but it's Vermont. I think most reputable Vermont Republicans would find it easier to knock off Shumlin than to pick up a Senate seat.

26. Alabama (R-Shelby) - Shelby might retire, but who the hell can run for the Dems in Alabama? All I hope is that we can find a candidate that isn't a turncoat (so better recruitment than 2014, basically).

27. Idaho (R-Crapo) - Crapo's drink-driving conviction might lead to primary trouble, but any Republican will win easily in Idaho.

28. Oregon (D-Wyden) - while Oregon is a bit too polarised for Wyden to win his races by mega-landslides, he is extremely entrenched in Oregon, and the state hasn't really acted like a swing state lately.

29. North Dakota (R-Hoeven) - Hoeven is a great fit for North Dakota. He'll win a second term easily.

30. South Carolina (R-Scott) - Scott should be safe in a state where he just won his race for the Senate easily and the Dems don't have a bench.

31. Oklahoma (R-Lankford) - it's Oklahoma, and Lankford won his race in a walk last time around.

32. New York (D-Schumer) - come back to the DSCC plz. He's completely safe in a state where the Dems have won every Senate race in over 10 years by overwhelming margins.

33. South Dakota (R-Thune) - he failed to get a candidate last election. Maybe he does this election, but he'll still be completely safe.

34. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - it's Hawaii, and Schatz won his race by an overwhelming margin in a terrible year for the Dems.

[NewYorkExpress]

In order of likeliness to flip in reverse order; (Obviously I'll be wrong about almost everything two years out)

34; Alabama; Shelby may draw a Tea Party backed challenge, but the Republicans are not going to lose here, no matter who the nominee is. If Shelby does draw a serious challenger, watch for Martha Roby, Luther Strange and Roy Moore to take a shot.

33. Hawaii- Even a nasty primary didn't help Republicans here in 2014. Schatz is Safe.

32. Arkansas- Boozman may still retire, and the Democrats may get Mark Pryor, Mike Beebe or Bill Halter to run (or if they're really unlucky Blanche Lincoln). But the reality is that this the equivalent to Hawaii 2012, where one party has a great candidate on paper (Linda Lingle) but loses in a blowout.

31. Louisiana- If Vitter wins election as Governor in 2015 (Which he should), than it's techincally an open seat. If Mary Landrieu loses the runoff this year (which she will) she could run here, and if Mitch Landrieu loses the Governors race, he could make it interesting. The reality is Democrats are no longer competitive here, except in New Orleans.

30. Idaho- Even if Raul Labrador wins the GOP Primary, the Democrats haven't been remotely competitive here since the days of Walt Minnick (and even that was a fluke)

29. Kansas- Jerry Moran may face a primary challenge (basically because he's in leadership), but Pat Roberts's victory proved that Democrats generally don't win in Kansas.

28. Maryland- While the Republicans just won the Governor's race, it's unlikely that will translate to a Senate race, even if Mikulski retires. With Dr. Ben Carson making it clear he will run for President, taking their most prominent candidate off the board (though not their best), The Democrat should win easily.

27. New York- Schumer should have minimal difficulty, unless 2016 is a GOP year and George Pataki is the nominee.

26. South Carolina- Tim Scott won't face a primary challenge (Republicans don't want to be seen as racist) and likely won't face a serious Democrat, but he does face a good chance of being on the ticket.

25. Utah- Mike Lee may face a Primary Challenge, but he should ride the base to victory. He won't face a serious Democrat either.

24. South Dakota- John Thune might end up on the ticket, but the reality is no matter the Republicans run, they will win (Though Herseth-Sandlin certainly could beat Kirsti Noem for her old House seat)

23. Vermont- Pat Leahy may not be Senate Pro Tempore anymore, but he will win re-election regardless.

22. Oklahoma- James Lankford should win re-election with ease

21. North Dakota- John Hoeven should also win easily.

20. Missouri- Even if Jay Nixon did run, he would have started off in a hole, in a state rapidly trending away from Democrats.

19. Kentucky- Like Mitch McConnell, this race could remain relatively close if Rand Paul is still the nominee, but if he's running for President, this race could end up being a blowout, especially if Paul is on the ticket. (That being said Alison Lundergan Grimes should have waited for this race anyways)

18. Iowa- The older Chuck Grassley gets, the more vulnerable he gets. Watch for Chet Culver and Dave Loesback as possible Democrats.

17. Georgia- Democrats chances are probably worse here with any-non Obama candidate on the ballot, but a pickup is possible if Senator Isakson steps down.

16. Connecticut-  Senator Blumenthal should be re-elected, but watch out for Former Governor Jodi Rell and Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele. If either run, this race could get interesting.

15- California Barbara Boxer's retirement (which I believe is likely) would set of sheer chaos on the Democratic side. Republicans certainly could sneak through, but they need their strongest candidates (Kevin McCarthy, Darrell Issa and Arnold Schwarzenegger) to do so.

14. Alaska- A Lisa Murkowski/Mark Begich/More Conservative Republican would be fun to watch, and would lead to a Begich victory. Otherwise it's a 2010 repeat, but we might be able to persuade Murkowski to become a Democrat anyway this time.

13. Oregon- Wyden is a strong incumbent, but Oregon is on the periphery of a swing state.

13b..  Washington- See Oregon, but with Patty Murray


11. Indiana- Even if Evan Bayh doesn't run, Senator Dan Coats is beatable, as he won by a relatively modest margin.

10. Arizona- If John McCain is the nominee, Democrats win, if it's anyone else, Republicans win.

9. New Hampshire- Kelly Ayotte is favored over any Democrat except Governor Hassan. Unfortunately for her, Hassan looks like she's running.

8. North Carolina- Richard Burr enters as favorite, but like Governor McCrory, strong opponents loom.

7. Nevada- Minority Leader Reid will be favored over any opponent except Governor Sandoval, but a Senate race is different than a Governor's race, which Sandoval's relatively pro-choice views and pro civil-unions will come under heavy fire in a GOP primary (and Reid's habit of meddling in Republican primaries will help here).

6. Colorado- Michael Bennett will start out in trouble, but the Colorado GOP just elected their best prospect in 2014.

5. Ohio- Rob Portman may run for President, but even if he doesn't, he may face a primary for his pro-same-sex marriage stance. If the Primary is successful, it likely will hand the seat to the Democrats.

4. Pennsylvania- Pat Toomey should face a battle in this battleground state, and no matter who the Democrats nominate, this should be a tossup.
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3. Florida- Marco Rubio faces a tough battle no matter he does, but Republicans best chance is for him to run for re-election. For Democrats, watch for Charlie Crist, Patrick Murphy and Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

2. Wisconsin- Ron Johnson is in a deep hole, and while Governor Walker is likely to run for President, the GOP's best hope for holding seat is a Johnson retirement and Walker Senate bid. Otherwise, Johnson starts off in a hole, though he certainly can catch up.

1. Illinois- While the election certainly could be close if Senator Kirk runs, the GOP will lose either way. Illinois has one of the deepest Democratic benches in the country, so unless Rod Blagojevich or Alexi Giannoulias is the nominee, the Democrats should be victorious.