Ranking the Senate Races....

[Seattle]

I would add Cantwell to your live boy/dead girl category... She *might* even hit 60%, more likely upper 50s, but she certainly on track to top her 56% from 2006.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Arizona and Indiana should move to toss-up. A lot of indies might split the ticket in Indiana Romney/Donnelly as they might be afraid of Mourdock. And Richard Carmona has been polling well in matchups with flake, tying him in every poll (but Rasmussen).

[morgieb]

Going, Going, Gone

1. Nebraska (D-Open, was Ben Nelson)

Likely Pickup

2. Maine (R-Open, was Snowe) - looks like the NRSC are going for it, which makes this race more interesting. Definitely a potential boilover.

Toss-up

3. North Dakota (D-Open, was Conrad)

4. Wisconsin (D-Open, was Kohl) - I feel the recent polls may be outliers, but Baldwin has the money advantage and I think she may get over the line in the end.

5. Montana (D-Tester)

6. Virginia (D-Open, was Webb)

7. Massachusetts (R-Brown) - Warren looking a lot better post-DNC. Looking like she wins here.

8. Missouri (D-McCaskill)

9. Nevada (R-Heller)

Lean Retention


10. Indiana (R-Lugar, lost primary)

11. Connecticut (ID-Open, was Lieberman)

12. Florida (D-Bill Nelson) - polling has become very positive for Nelson. Definitely favoured.

13. Ohio (D-Brown) - see above, upgrading this as my previous rank was too optimistic I feel.

Likely Retention

14. New Mexico (D-Open, was Bingaman)

15. Arizona (R-Open, was Kyl)

Long Shots

16. Hawaii (D-Open, was Akaka)

17. Michigan (D-Stabenow)

18. New Jersey (D-Menendez)

Umm....yeah....

19. West Virginia (D-Manchin)

20. Washington (D-Cantwell)

21. Texas (R-Open, was Hutchison)

A live boy/dead girl might not be enough

22. Pennsylvania (D-Casey)

23. California (D-Feinstein)

24. Maryland (D-Cardin)

25. Minnesota (D-Kloubchar)

26. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse)

27. Delaware (D-Carper)

28. Mississippi (R-Wicker)

29. Utah (R-Hatch)

30. New York (D-Gillibrand)

31. Vermont (ID-Sanders)

32. Wyoming (R-Barrasso) - well, the Democrats actually have a candidate with political experience rather than an untested businessman or just a member of the general public, but Barrasso is extremely popular and this is Wyoming.

33. Tennessee (R-Corker)
[/quote]

[morgieb]

Going, Going, Gone

1. Nebraska (D-Open, was Ben Nelson)

Lean Pickup

2. Maine (R-Open, was Snowe) - falling away quite quickly. King has ran a sh**tty campaign and the Pubbies are realising the potential of a split vote. The polls still have him ahead, however.

Toss-up/Tilt Pickup

3. North Dakota (D-Open, was Conrad) - the other race which seems like it has a good chance of flipping. However, a scandal regarding Berg may have an impact here. We need polls here.

4. Massachusetts (R-Brown) - Warren's momentum may have stalled in polling, but Brown's campaign looks like it is running scared.

5. Montana (D-Tester) - this and Massachusetts look similar at the surface - flawed challengers against popular incumbents in states which aren't favourable to the incumbent party. The difference here is that Montana's a lot less red than Massachusetts is blue.

Toss-up/Tilt Retention

6. Indiana (R-Lugar, lost primary) - Mourdock is in serious trouble here, and Donnelly seems like a good candidate. Team Blue would be happy here.

7. Virginia (D-Open, was Webb) - Allen is seriously losing ground here.

8. Missouri (D-McCaskill) - Akin ain't dropping out of the race, but a new poll still shows him up. McCaskill's playing clever, but eventually the NRSC will have to campaign here, which will give Akin a boost.

9. Nevada (R-Heller) - polling has been a mixed bag here. Yet Democrats really underpoll in Nevada.

Lean Retention

10. Wisconsin (D-Open, was Kohl) - Thompson is falling and hasn't gotten up, in the meantime Baldwin's starting to get a major polling advantage. It's starting to look good for Team D.

11. Connecticut (ID-Open, was Lieberman) - polling is looking tight, but McMahon's starting to get some scandals hurting her.

Likely Retention

12. Arizona (R-Open, was Kyl) - Carmona was leading in a Republican internal, yet other polls still show Flake in the lead. But with the Democrats starting to look stronger, it looks more favourable for Team Blue.

13. Ohio (D-Brown) - hard to see Mandel pulling this out in the end, however Brown's liberalness and Mandel's fundraising means that it isn't impossible for them to retain. Furthermore, this race should still get a lot of attention due to the president vote.

14. Florida (D-Bill Nelson) - hard to see Mack pulling this out in the end, however this race should still get a lot of attention due to the president vote.

Long Shots

15. New Mexico (D-Open, was Bingaman) - Wilson feels like more of a decoy rather than a threat.

16. New Jersey (D-Menendez) - given McMahon's momentum this race should be more competitive, but it doesn't look like it.

17. Hawaii (D-Open, was Akaka) - polling has been all over the place, but coattails should be enough for Hirono.

18. Michigan (D-Stabenow) - Republicans really blew it here.

19. Pennsylvania (D-Casey) - ditto, and Smith hasn't been elected like Hoestkra has.

20. West Virginia (D-Manchin) - the less said about Raese the better. Furthermore, West Virginia likes its Blue Dogs.

No Shots

21. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse) - Whitehouse's fundraising has been pretty poor, but it's not enough to make this competitive.

22. Washington (D-Cantwell) - Cantwell seems well entrenched, and won the jungle primary by a big margin.

23. Texas (R-Open, was Hutchison) - YouGov says Cruz is up 19, he is safe.

24. Minnesota (D-Kloubchar) - if Kloubchar had poorer approvals it may have been interesting, but she'll win in a walk given how popular she is.

25. California (D-Feinstein) - leads are smaller than in other ultra-solid states, but no reason to think Feinstein is in trouble.

26. Mississippi (R-Wicker) - it's Mississippi. Enough said.

27. Delaware (D-Carper) - Carper is an institution in Delaware politics.

28. Vermont (ID-Sanders) - Sanders is an institution in Vermont politics.

29. New York (D-Gillibrand) - Gillibrand has been leading by margins of up to 40 points.

30. Wyoming (R-Barrasso) - Barrasso approvals are very strong and Wyoming is one of the reddest states in the Union.

31. Tennessee (R-Corker) - think DeMint/Greene 2010, with a smaller black population.

32. Utah (R-Hatch) - Howell made a pretty bad gaffe, and Romney will win here by 40 points.

33. Maryland (D-Cardin) - 3-party race and the independent is a former Republican. Yeah...

[morgieb]

OK, a different version this time.

All of Wyoming, Utah, Tennessee, Mississippi, Texas, Vermont, New York, Maryland, Delaware, California, Washington, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Hawaii and Minnesota will stay with their current party. The only ones which may differ are Rhode Island, where Whitehouse has poor fundraising, Hawaii, where the Republicans are running a former governor and West Virginia, where Obama is hated.

Nebraska will fall, although Kerrey has been trying to make up the deficit, he is way behind in the polls.

There are a few races where it may be competitive but it is highly unlikely to flip:

* Pennsylvania - Casey should've won this by 20, instead he'll be lucky to do so by 10. A poor campaign has killed him.
* New Jersey - no idea why this isn't more competitive, but it's been a long time since Republicans won Senate races in New Jersey.
* Michigan - could've been competitive, but the Republicans failed here in recruitment.
* New Mexico - Wilson feels more of a decoy rather than a threat. She hasn't led in any polls that I know about.

And a few races where it looks competitive but one side has the advantage....

* Florida - recruitment fail here. Would be even less likely to flip but it is in Florida, and WAA has it tied.
* Wisconsin - Baldwin starting to break away now. Maybe enough time for Thompson to claw back, but I dunno....
* Virginia - Kaine starting to break away now. The fact that there was no WAA poll released despite polling is not a good sign for Allen.
* Missouri - it feels like Akin is intentionally trying to lose.
* Ohio - one of the few races that has noticed Romney's comeback. Could be an upset.
* Arizona - Carmona is getting closer, but probably not quite close enough. But this
* Nevada - Berkley's scandals has hurt her hard.

Maine looks 'likely' to flip, but it isn't a certainty as King isn't running a good campaign. I'd say Massachusetts flips as well, but Brown could still easily win.

Now the toss-ups....

* North Dakota
* Montana
* Indiana
* Connecticut

A strange bunch! If I had to make predictions, I'd say the Pubbies pick them all up bar Connecticut.

[Talleyrand]

I think Montana is even more likely to switch parties than Massachusetts. Tester has lost his personal popularity, and the only poll which has shown him ahead is PPP, and even they showed undecideds favor Romney 71 to 8. He's pretty much finished.

Donnelly is only close in the polls right now because Mourdock is underperforming Romney heavily. The Democrat hasn't been able to break out of the low 40s, even in his best polls. Therefore, I think the undecideds will move decisively to Mourdock in the end, closing the deal.

In North Dakota, Heitkamp, while the best candidate Democrats could have gotten for this seat besides Dorgan or Conrad, is not much more popular than Berg, according to the most recent Mason-Dixon poll. Despite outmaneuvering Berg, running a much more charismatic campaign, and managing to avoid scandal for the most part, she's only tied with him, and she has seen a decline in the polls since the spring. While I think she is more likely to win than Tester or Mourdock, it's probably Lean R.

Connecticut looked like a potential McMahon upset, and she could still pull it off, but the only recent poll showing her up was Quinnipac, and that was a virtual dead heat and a decline from their last poll. Plus, Rasmussen and PPP have her down six each, and she was routed in the most recent debate. Probably Lean D, but she's likelier to win than any of the Democrats I mentioned earlier.

[morgieb]

Maine: (R-Open [was Snowe]) Snowe retiring pushed this seat way open. While it looked competitive for a while, this has gone away. A third party race however is trickier to poll than a normal two-party race, as it's possible that many people will just vote for their candidate rather than the indie. Very likely Independent gain (I assume King caucuses with the Dems)
Massachusetts: (R-Scott Brown) Looking like the analomy of a Republican in Massachusetts will go away after this election. Warren has led most polls since the DNC. Very likely Democrat gain.
Rhode Island: (D-Whitehouse) It could be closer than most people expect, but a Republican isn't winning here, particularly without much funding. Very solidly Democrat.
Connecticut: (ID-Open [was Lieberman]) Thank f**k he's retiring. It was a toss-up for a while, but Murphy appears to have gotten the edge recently. Could Frankenstorm affect this however? Likely Democrat retention.
Vermont: (ID-Sanders) Why bother challenging Sanders? About as solidly Democrat as a race can be.
New York: (D-Gillibrand) She's leading by margins up to 40 points. Yeah...... About as solidly Democrat as a race can be.
New Jersey: (D-Menendez) Generally in New Jersey, most races look competitive but the Democrat usually wins. Except this time the race hasn't looked competitive from the polling. Solidly Democrat.
Pennsylvania: (D-Casey) God, his campaign has sucked. He should've won by 20, instead he'll be lucky to win by 10. Luckily, he's lead in all non-partisan polls. Likely Democrat hold.
West Virginia: (D-Manchin) Manchin is unpopular by large segments of his own party, but West Virginians still like their local Dems. Very very solidly Democrat.
Maryland: (D-Cardin) He's not the strongest candidate, but Maryland is very blue and the anti-Cardin vote is fragmented by a third party. The big question is whether Sobhoni can overtake the Republican. Very very solidly Democrat.
Delaware: (D-Carper) Well, at least the Pubbies didn't nominate "I'm not a witch" O'Donnell, eh? About as solidly Democrat as a race can be.
Virginia: (D-Open [was Webb]) An open seat in one of the purplest states in the nation, with two former Governors matching up against each other? Ultimate definition of a toss-up. Except now, Allen is behind or is tied in most polls. Tilting Democrat.
Ohio: (D-Sherrod Brown) A bit of a recruitment failure by the Pubbies here. As Mandel's fundraising suggests Brown is probably too liberal for Ohio, and a good Republican could have knocked him off. But Mandel has not run a good campaign, and is behind in most polls. Likely Democrat hold.
Indiana: (R-Open [was Lugar, lost primary]) A bit of a lol here. Lugar would've won here by 20-30 points, but Mourdock, who successfully primaried him, is struggling big time. Internals are painting an ugly picture for him. Maybe Pence/Romney's coattails will power him to victory, but his rape comments make it a lot harder now. Tossup, titling Democrat.
Wisconsin: (D-Open [was Kohl]) A former governor should easily beat a liberal lesbian on paper, but Thompson's campaign has been laughable. It's still quasi-competitive enough that a Bradley effect may make it tighter than it appears, but most polls show Baldwin with the edge. Lean Democrat hold.
Minnesota: (D-Kloubchar) Kloubchar is very popular and the Minnesotan Republican party is in damage control. Very very solidly Democrat.
Michigan: (D-Stabenow) I guess racism doesn't help people win races, eh? Solidly Democrat hold.
Missouri: (D-McCaskill) Oh lol. The Pubbies should've won here easily, instead it'll be a shocker if Akin wins due to his rape comments. The fact that the polls have been so bad for Obama means that Akin could ride on Romney's coattails, particularly if a Bradley effect exists here,  but it's not that likely. Likely Democrat hold.
Tennessee: (R-Corker) At least we never really had a chance here. Clayton is probably the worst major-party candidate running for the Senate. More interesting here is to see the third-party vote. About as solidly Republican as a race can be.
Mississippi: (R-Wicker) Regardless of who his candidate may be a namesake of, Mississippi is arguably the most polarised state in the nation. About as solidly Republican as a race can be.
Florida: (D-Bill Nelson) Mack should made this a race, but he's behind by high-single digits in the polls. Solidly Democrat hold.
Texas: (R-Open [was Bailey Hutchinson]) Cruz could potentially be a rising star in the Republican party. Very very solidly Republican hold.
North Dakota: (D-Open [was Conrad]) This should've been a slam dunk for the Pubbies. But Heitkamp has proven to be a great retail politican. Unfortuately, Romney's coattails may make it not enough, and indeed it's possible this may play something like the 08 Presidential race. Titling Republican.
Nebraska: (D-Open [was Ben Nelson]) Oh wow. A month ago this was a slam dunk for the Pubbies. Yet Fischer's scandals has given Kerrey some hope. It is probably not enough, however. Lean Republican.
Montana: (D-Tester) The biggest toss-up in the Senate? Possibly. Coat-tails may be enough for Rehberg to win, however. Toss-up, tilting Republican.
Wyoming: (R-Barrasso) Why did the Democrat bother here? About as solidly Republican as a race can be.
Utah: (R-Hatch) There are circumstances which Howell could make it competitive, but 2012 is not the year, and he made an insensitive gaffe about Hatch's age. About as solidly Republican as a race can be.
New Mexico: (D-Open [was Bingaman]) This state is only turning bluer, and most polls are showing Heinrich with a decent sized lead. Soldily Democrat hold.
Arizona: (R-Open [was Kyl]) Another gimme that the Pubbies blew, although in this case it is more down to Carmona's strengths than Flake's weaknesses. Coatails will probably be enough for Flake to get over the line, too. Lean Republican hold.
Nevada: (R-Heller) A rare race which the Democrat blew rather than the Pubbie. Berkley's corruption has made her a less strong candidate on paper than in practice. Yet coattails may be enough for her to get over the line, particularly given Nevada polls are generally R-leaning. Tossup, tilting Democrat.
California: (D-Feinstein) California is very blue these days, and the Pubbies didn't offer up much opposition. Very very solidly Democrat.
Washington: (D-Cantwell) Washington is pretty blue these days, and the Pubbies didn't offer up much opposition. Very very solidly Democrat.
Hawaii: (D-Open [was Akaka]) This state was just too blue for Lingle, particularly against a competent Democrat. Solidly Democrat hold.

[morgieb]

Alabama: No reason for Sessions to be in trouble. Safe R.

Alaska: Begich should be DOA - he only barely beat a corrupt incumbent in the worst Republican year since 1827. However other endangered Democrats have proven to be strong retail politicians, and the Tea Party could mess this up. Toss-up.

Arkansas: Pryor went uncontested last time. Won't this time. Although Arkansas is turning red hard, Pryor still has decent approvals and has a strong last name. Toss-up.

Colorado: Colorado seems to be turning blue, and the Colorado Republican party tends to nominate too unappetising candidates. Could be competitive if the mid-terms are ugly for the Dems, but Udall looks OK right now. Leans D.

Delaware: No reason for Coons to be in trouble. This race may even get O'Donnell again. Safe D.

Georgia: Georgian Democrats don't have a great bench, and while Chambliss isn't that well loved, he still has an advantage in a R-leaning state, particularly during the mid-terms. Likely R.

Idaho: No reason for Risch to be in trouble. Safe R.

Illinois: If Durbin retires, this race could get interesting, as the Democrats don't have a great bench here and the Republicans have a few interesting candidates. However, it is unlikely that Illinois will be willing to hand over both their Senate seats to Republicans. Safe D with Durbin, Likely D otherwise.

Iowa: Harkin's approvals are middling, but he generally fends off serious challenges to him and he's been in the game for a long time. Lean/Likely D.

Kansas: No reason for Roberts to be in trouble, and Kansas is too red to flip even if he does quit. Safe R.

Kentucky: McConnell's approvals are far from good, and Kentucky Democrats have a strong bench here but he has loads of cash and too many times has Kentucky felt like fools good to the Democrats. Lean/Likely R.

Louisiana: Landrieu is not in great shape - Louisiana is only getting redder (although it did swing towards the Dems in 2012) and received a closer call than most expected in 2008. She is a fighter however, having good approvals, and could turn the race into a local rather than a national race. Toss-up.

Maine: The maths here is simple - Collins wins easy if she runs again, but if she were primaried or quit it would be pick-up opportunity #1. Safe R with Collins, Likely D otherwise.

Massachusetts: If Kerry runs again he'll win easily. However, it's possible that Brown makes a comeback if he becomes SOS, although he'll get strong opposition and may be damaged goods from his 2012 Senate race. Safe D with Kerry, Tilt D otherwise.

Michigan: Levin is much too entrenched to lose, but if he retires, we have a barnstormer on our hands, as Michigan Democrats seem to lack decent candidates. Safe D with Levin, Toss-up otherwise.

Minnesota: Most Republicans would love to take out Franken, but he seems to be in a solid enough position to fight it off, and the Minnesota Republican party is in damage control. Leans D.

Mississippi: Could get interesting in a primary, as Cochran isn't really a firebreather and is getting old, but it won't flip to the Democrats despite its 2012 swing. Safe R.

Montana: Baucus doesn't have great approvals, but he's been around for a long time and the Republican party in Montana is surprisingly weak. Tilt D.

Nebraska: No reason for Johanns to be in trouble. Safe R.

New Hampshire: Will look interesting if the tide turns against the Democrats, as New Hampshire is generally a strong indicator of a national tide, and Shaheen hasn't been fundraising so well, but she is probably the favourite as of now. Leans D.

New Jersey: Unclear whether Lautenberg runs again, but New Jersey is too blue for even an open seat to become a major opportunity. Safe D with Lautenberg or Booker, Leans/Likely D otherwise.

New Mexico: Udall looks in good shape and New Mexico is only getting bluer. Likely D.

North Carolina: Hagan's approvals are weak and she is running in a reddish state, but it is unclear how strong of an opponent she'll get. Tilt D.

Oklahoma: There are some interesting candidates in Oklahoma that could run if Inhofe retired, but Oklahoma feels too red for them to actually win. Safe R with Inhofe, Likely R otherwise.

Oregon: Merkley seems rather weak, but the Republicans lack obvious candidates in Oregon and a base that's too conservative. Leans D.

Rhode Island: No reason that Reed should be in trouble. Safe D.

South Carolina: While it's unlikely that Graham will be the candidate, Democrats have a weak bench in South Carolina. Safe R with Graham, Likely R otherwise.

South Dakota: Ouch. Not only is Johnson in poor health, he is likely to get a serious challenge in Rounds. A prime pick-up opportunity for Team R. Toss-up with Johnson, Likely R otherwise.

Tennessee: Hard to see Alexander being challenged seriously, and it's unclear that the Democrats will seriously challenge an open seat anyway. Safe R with Alexander, Likely R otherwise.

Texas: No reason for Cornyn to be in trouble. Safe R.

Virginia: Warner should win easy, but if he were to run for Governor we'd have a barnstormer on our hands, perhaps even turning red. Safe D with Warner, Tilt R otherwise.

West Virginia: The state is trending red hard, and it's unlikely that Rockefeller runs again. However, the Democrats still have a decent bench here. Toss-up.

Wyoming: No reason for Enzi to be in trouble, and a Democrat isn't winning Wyoming in a long time. Safe R.

[morgieb]

UPDATE:

Alabama: No change. Safe R.

Alaska: This depends on the candidates. The good news for Team Red is that Treadwell is in, who at the very least knows how to fund a campaign. The bad news is that Miller looks like getting in too, who is a nutjob and probably couldn't win. No doubt the Dems have to try to defend the seat. Until we get polling, it's foolish to label this as anything other than a Toss-up.

Arkansas: Well, this seat has become a lot better for Team Blue. Griffin isn't running, and Womack and Cotton aren't sounding so pumped up to run. Darr is, but his strength remains questionable. Lean D unless a stronger Republican changes his mind.

Colorado: No real news here to talk about. Unclear whether a strong Republican runs, or if one did, whether it would win a primary. Lean/Likely D.

Delaware: No change. Safe D.

Georgia: Big news - Chambliss is retiring. Now the question is - what sort of candidate do the sides nominate? I for one can see Carter or Barrow being competitive against someone like Price or Braun. But you'd favor Georgia to 1. elect Republicans in mid-terms, and 2. it's unclear what sort of Republican runs. Lean/Likely R.

Hawaii: Bigger news - Inouye died. While he requested that Hanabusa take his seat, instead Schatz was appointed. While this is Hawaii, a divisive primary is possible, and that could somewhat impact the race. But still, Likely/Safe D.

Idaho: No change. Safe R.

Illinois: Sounding more like Durbin is running again. Safe D unless Durbin pulls a fast one on us.

Iowa: More big news - Harkin is retiring. The good news is that King looks like he will be nominated, and he seems unelectable to Iowa at large. But if Iowan Republicans elect someone sane, watch out. Lean D.

Kansas: For all the talk about primarying Chambliss before he quit, I'm surprised there's not a lot of talk about primarying Roberts. Although he is conservative, he's not a Tea Partier, and there has been a lot of 'cleansing' of the Republican Party in Kansas. Still, this is Kansas, so any Republican should really win. Likely/Safe R.

Kentucky: Looks like Judd will be the nominee, who while can force McConnell to spend, will probably flop pretty hard. Unless a stronger candidate runs, McConnell is out of danger. Likely R.

Louisiana: No major news here surprisingly, but the story remains the same. Are Landrieu's approvals gonna be enough against a strong Republican candidate? Toss-up.

Maine: No news here. Polling has confirmed what many suspect. Safe R with Collins, Likely D otherwise.

Massachusetts: Major news here - Kerry is becoming the SoS. We don't know if Brown runs, but if he does, the Democrats are in major trouble even with much of the party supporting Markey. Safe D without Brown, Lean R with Brown.

Michigan: No news here. Safe D with Levin, Toss-up otherwise.

Minnesota: Most good Republicans are taking a pass on challenging Franken, which means that it's hard to see any attempt to knock him out succeeding. Likely D.

Mississippi: No change. Safe R.

Montana: Haven't heard much about this race. Leans D.

Nebraska: No change. Safe R.

New Hampshire: Haven't heard much about this race. Leans D.

New Jersey: This could get interesting. Despite being 90 years old and losing heavily to Booker in a primary, Lautenberg does not want to go out quietly into the night, and a decisive primary could get a Republican in a strong position. Dems need to decide who to support, in case it gets too nasty. Leans/Likely D.

New Mexico: No change. Likely/Safe D.

North Carolina: This seat has to be giving Republicans headaches. Hagan is pretty anonymous and not particularly well-liked, and North Carolina still leans Republican. Yet most of the obvious candidates aren't very strong. With that said, Hagan was little known back in 2008, so it's winnable. Leans D.

Oklahoma: Pretty sure Inhofe is running again. He'll get his usual total in the high-50's. Safe R.

Oregon: Merkley shouldn't have much to fear. The stronger Republican candidates are unlikely to run, and although he is rather anonymous to Oregon at a whole, he isn't unpopular, and he should get strong progressive support. Likely D.

Rhode Island: No change. Safe D.

South Carolina-A: Graham has to be cheering. First, he gains conservative support due to his attacks on Bengazi and Susan Rice. Then, DeMint retires, giving the Tea Party a shot at a new seat, and allowing any Democratic challengers to take a shot at a newly minted Senator. A primary challenge is possible, but no longer probable. Safe R.

South Carolina-B: This is Tim Scott's new seat. Given this is South Carolina, he probably doesn't have much to fear, but it's possible that racists stay at home given his skin colour, and an effective open seat could lead to a strong Democrat jumping in. But the bench for Democrats is even weaker than most Southern states. Likely R.

South Dakota: No news on Johnson thus far. He could hold on, but it'll be tough, and if he retires, it's effectively over. Toss-up with Johnson, Likely R otherwise.

Tennessee: Alexander giving a warm reception to the president may make for some campaign fodder from the right, but I don't know if any Dem could win Tennessee now. Safe R with Alexander, Likely R otherwise.

Texas: No change. Safe R.

Virginia: Warner has decided to keep his job rather than run for Governor. Given his popularity, he is safe despite Virginia being a swing state. Safe D.

West Virginia: Game over? This seat has turned ugly fast for the Democrats - not only did the Republicans get their best candidate possible in Capito, Rockefeller also chose to retire. Will be very hard to hold unless Capito gets primaried, which is possible I suppose. Likely R with Capito, Leans D with someone more conservative.

Wyoming: No change. Safe R.

In short:

* West Virginia will most likely flip barring a primary defeat for Capito.
* South Dakota will be tough to hold even with Johnson, and becomes pick-up opportunity #1 without him probably.
* Alaska depends on who wins the primary - Begich will be in trouble against Treadwell, but probably safe against Miller.
* Louisiana is hard to say. Personal popularity wasn't enough to save Brown or Chafee, but it might be in a different year for Landrieu. It depends on who runs, as the field hasn't simmered down yet.
* Massachusetts requires Brown. If he runs, he could probably win given that Markey won't be running in a presidential year and probably isn't as exciting to progressives as Warren. But it won't be safe, and if he doesn't, it's off the table.

Those are the big 5. If they do win all of those, it's 50-50, and the Republicans need just one more seat to regain control. And there are loads of seats to choose from or also as a back-up....

* Arkansas - read Louisiana, except we have got a clearer view of the field, and looks pretty weak for Republicans.
* Montana should be winnable, but there's a distinct lack of good candidates.
* North Carolina is in a similar boat.
* Michigan will be tough to hold if Levin retires.
* New Hampshire is notoriously volatile, but if that goes then it's a clear sign that Republicans have already won control.
* Harkin is retiring, so Iowa will be hard to hold unless King wins the primary.
* Colorado could flip with a good candidate (but I doubt one exists).
* Hawaii is effectively open, but it is Hawaii.
* New Jersey could get interesting if the primary gets too messy.

For the Democrats...

* Georgia could flip if the Republicans nominate a bad candidate, and the Democrats find a good one.
* Kentucky should be vulnerable, but not with Judd.
* South Carolina is effectively open, so not unwinnable.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Would Judd actually win the primary, though?

[morgieb]

Would Judd actually win the primary, though?

Why wouldn't she without stronger candidates? She's got the cash at least...

[RogueBeaver]

I'd only disagree with Arkansas, since Cotton is moving towards yes per some recent interviews of his. If he in fact says yes then that's a tossup.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Would Judd actually win the primary, though?

Why wouldn't she without stronger candidates? She's got the cash at least...

Grimes and Conway are much more qualified and would go better with the Kentucky Democratic electorate (remember that Obama didn't even get 60% here)

[Talleyrand]

Idaho: No change. Safe D.

I was unaware of that situation, but everything else about your analysis is excellent.

[morgieb]

Idaho: No change. Safe D.

I was unaware of that situation, but everything else about your analysis is excellent.

Oops.

[morgieb]

I guess this is what apathy does to you. 7 months without an update

1. South Dakota - Rounds's numbers have been weaker then expected, but he's still a fair way ahead in the polls and Weiland needs a scandal or a gaffe to become really competitive. The only contingency is if a stronger Democrat changes its mind, or (more likely) Pressler gets in and makes this a 3-way race.

2. West Virginia - given the trends here and the Pubbies finding their one strong candidate in West Virginia, it's safe to say that Capito is looking good. Will she be the nominee though? McGeehan could give Tennant a big chance of keeping the seat in Democratic hands, though a Tea Party candidate still won comfortably in the similar Kentucky.

3. Montana - we need some polling here. For now, given the state's partisan lean and the fact that the Dems will have a decisive primary, the Republicans have the edge.

4. Arkansas - most polls show Pryor leading but mired in the mid-40's, which suggests that Cotton will start to lead when he gets more name recognition. I haven't liked the campaign he has run either, and he smells like the political twin of his former Senate partner.

5. Alaska - hard to get a really strong vibe here. The polling has suggested that the real candidates are close (and holding Begich to low numbers, perhaps suggesting the edge), but the Tea Partiers will be flogged. The race itself however feels rather low-profile, and it's hard to see who has the ground advantage.

6. Louisiana - Cassidy isn't getting much momentum, and Landrieu is looking better than she did for much of the past few years. However, the prevailing meme will be whether the race is a referendum on Obama or a referendum on Landrieu, which will keep this close until election day.

7. North Carolina - Hagan has poor approvals, but the rest of the field are heavily tied to the Republican caucus in North Carolina, which is unpopular and controversial. A strong candidate will hurt Hagan badly though.

8. Georgia - depends on who the Republicans nominate. Although Nunn is still untested, she is hitting the right waves. At the end of the day the state is still too red for the Republicans to lose with Kingston or Handel, but with Gingrey or Broun, watch out. A messy primary could also aid Nunn too, even if a 'mainstream' candidate win.

9. Kentucky - most polling is showing McConnell in a world of pain, and his approvals are not good, but he 1. still has a lot of money and 2. is running in a state where national Dems are unpopular. Grimes can win with a well-executed campaign, and in her favour she is hitting the right waves, but the advantage still rests with McConnell.

10. Michigan - polling is showing this race to be close, but many of the polls have been conducted by local outfits which are horribly unreliable and pretty favourable to the Republicans.

11. Iowa - once we get here we get to the stage where the races are clearly favouring the incumbent party - there doesn't appear to be many second-tier or bolter races on the horizon. Braley lacks real opposition right now, but this is still an open seat in a purple (although Democratic tilting) state. This race can become very competitive.

12. New Hampshire - Shaheen is looking good right now, so barring a wave it is hard to see her losing. Waves are however very noticeable in New Hampshire, which will keep the race on the radar screen for now. Theoretically Scott Brown could run, but it seems unlikely and the way he's behaving since losing his Senate seat doesn't indicate interest in running.

13. Colorado - Udall should be fairly safe, but there are signs that Colorado is growing weary of Democrats. If the national climate favours the Republicans, it could get interesting, but the Republicans probably want a candidate.

14. Minnesota - Franken should be safe, but he is still somewhat controversial and his opponent has raised decent money. This race is one to watch, but it's unlikely to be competitive, given the fact that Minnesota Republicans are in damage control and Franken has good approvals.

15. Oregon - Merkley is running against some semi-viable candidates, but I doubt they are strong enough to defeat him. Merkley seems to be in reasonable shape.

16. New Mexico - hard to see who can challenge Udall here. I'm keeping this up high-ish however as New Mexico is more of a leaner state, but it's hard to see how Udall loses. We're getting to the stage where the incumbent party won't lose.

17. Virginia - Warner is super popular in Virginia, and the state is only becoming more blue.

18. Nebraska - it's an open seat, however Kerrey lost one by 15 points against a fairly marginal incumbent last year and the Democrats lack an opponent, making this more or less a hold for the Republicans.

19. Wyoming - the Cheney name is not well-loved in Wyoming, and a primary win for Mary Cheney could give an opening to the right Democrat, although it is hard to see who exactly that is.

* Note: This was written before I saw the new primary poll. This race has fallen down on the radar screen since then.

20. Hawaii - the primary is getting nasty, but this is still Hawaii. Given Lingle lost an open seat by 30 points last year, what kind of Republican could win in Hawaii?

21. Maine - Collins will walk to victory if she is still the nominee. I suppose it's theoretically possible that she loses the primary or pulls a Snowe, but I haven't heard anything giving that a chance.

22. South Carolina-A - a primary challenge for Graham seems likely, but it's unclear how viable said challenge is, and even so, it's unclear a state which was willing to elect Mark Sanford would vote for a Dem over a Tea Party nutter or give the Dems a strong candidate.

23. Tennessee - possible that Alexander gets a primary challenge, but the Dems don't have a candidate.

24. Texas - possible that Cornyn gets a primary challenge, but the Dems don't have a candidate.

25. Mississippi - we know that Cochran will get a primary challenge, and indeed he could still retire. The Democrats do have some compelling potential candidates, but none of them are showing interest in the event of a contingency.

UPDATE: It sounds like Cochran is leaning towards retirement, and Childers is looking at running. Moves up to the teens then.

26. Kansas - possible that Roberts gets a primary challenge, but the Dems don't have a candidate.

27. Oklahoma - might Inhofe change his mind about running again given the horrible news regarding his son? Even if he does though, it's still Oklahoma, and the Dems will need to scramble to find non-token opposition anyway.

28. New Jersey - Booker won a special election by an underwhelming margin, but it's still hard to see a compelling Republican running. If one does though, the race will move up significantly.

29. Massachusetts - Markey hasn't quite clicked with the Massachusetts electorate, but he won a special election by a reasonable margin, and Massachusetts really lacks Republicans.

30. South Carolina-B - Scott has yet to win an election, but it's still South Carolina. The Dems will probably pump their resources into the governor's race or looking for a contingency in case Graham gets primaried.

31. Delaware - Coons isn't super entrenched, but the Republicans lack a candidate.

32. Idaho - given LaRocco lost by over 20 points for the race for the last open seat, it's hard to see a Democrat knocking off an incumbent.

33. Illinois - Durbin is well entrenched.

34. Alabama - Sessions is well entrenched, and it's Alabama.

35. Rhode Island - Reed is well entrenched, and it's Rhode Island.

[NewYorkExpress]

In order of filp-likelihood...

1. West Virginia
2. South Dakota
3. Arkansas
4. Montana
5. Louisiana
6. Alaska
7. Kentucky
8. North Carolina
9. Georgia
10. New Hampshire
11. Michigan
12. Iowa
13. Colorado
14. Minnesota
15. Oregon
16. New Jersey
17. Virginia
18. Hawaii
19. South Carolina- A
20. Maine

everything else doesn't have a prayer of flipping either way.

[tmthforu94]

In order of filp-likelihood...

1. West Virginia
2. South Dakota
3. Arkansas
4. Montana
5. Louisiana
6. Alaska
7. Kentucky
8. North Carolina
9. Georgia
10. New Hampshire
11. Michigan
12. Iowa
13. Colorado
14. Minnesota
15. Oregon
16. New Jersey
17. Virginia
18. Hawaii
19. South Carolina- A
20. Maine

everything else doesn't have a prayer of flipping either way.

I tend to agree, though I would put both Michigan and Iowa ahead of New Hampshire. Land is proving to be a pretty strong candidate in Michigan and is polling close to Peters, and while no candidate has emerged in Iowa, Braley isn't out of the woods yet, especially if Republicans manage to discover a Ron Johnson-type candidate. However, Shaheen is virtually safe in New Hampshire as all potentially strong challengers have taken a pass.

[free my dawg]

In order of filp-likelihood...

1. West Virginia
2. South Dakota
3. Arkansas
4. Montana
5. Louisiana
6. Alaska
7. Kentucky
8. North Carolina
9. Georgia
10. New Hampshire
11. Michigan
12. Iowa
13. Colorado
14. Minnesota
15. Oregon
16. New Jersey
17. Virginia
18. Hawaii
19. South Carolina- A
20. Maine

everything else doesn't have a prayer of flipping either way.

I tend to agree, though I would put both Michigan and Iowa ahead of New Hampshire. Land is proving to be a pretty strong candidate in Michigan and is polling close to Peters, and while no candidate has emerged in Iowa, Braley isn't out of the woods yet, especially if Republicans manage to discover a Ron Johnson-type candidate. However, Shaheen is virtually safe in New Hampshire as all potentially strong challengers have taken a pass.

Agreed. If you believe that Scott Brown is going to run, then I have a bridge to sell you. Also, the fact that Shaheen polls 50% over Bass already shows he's not a good candidate.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan almost always looks good for Republicans a year before the election. Know well: the long-powerful, large unions will be betting everything on the 2014 election because Rick Snyder and the R-dominated State Legislature enacted Right to Work (for much less) laws. Unions will be loaded for bear Elephant.

Unions do not want Michigan to become a cheap-labor state, basically Mississippi with real winters. 

[morgieb]

1. South Dakota (D-Open) - it doesn't look like Pressler's getting much traction, which prevents any chance of this being a weird

2. West Virginia (D-Open) - barring a miraculous primary upset, this is looking like a coronation for Capito.

3. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - Pryor's campaign is collapsing pretty quickly, and he's trailing Cotton in the polls. I doubt spending much money here is worth it.

4. Montana (D-Walsh) - haven't really heard much about this race recently. Walsh being an incumbent is good news, but his campaign has had a rocky start, he's not really entrenched and Montana is fairly red.

5. Alaska (D-Begich) - Begich is still ahead in the polls, but he is mired in the early to mid-40's in a red state. I'm growing more pessimistic about this race.

6. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - under heavy attack from the AFP and other right-wing attack ads, Landrieu has gotten very unpopular. However, I still suspect that the jungle primary will have the final say - she probably loses if her vote is the decider, wins if it isn't.

7. North Carolina (D-Hagan) - this race is getting more worrying for the Democrats. Attacked heavily by the Koch brothers and the AFP, Hagan has probably been 'defined', and in a R-leaning state, that isn't a good thing. The one good news? Brannon is far too right-wing to win in North Carolina, and Tillis is still quite tied to the Republican caucus ruinning the state government and isn't liked by the base. Still should be tight.

8. Michigan (D-Open) - no doubt the polling isn't good for Peters, but the state is still D-leaning, and this race is far from developed - Peters still somewhat unknown, Land not really defined yet. But the bad polls have been going on for long enough to not think of this as a toss-up.

9. Georgia (R-Open) - this race depends more on the Republicans than the Democrats. No doubt Nunn is a good candidate, but this state is still quite Republican, and if a normal Republican (i.e. Kingston, Perdue or Handel) win the primary, they probably win the general. But if the Tea Party get their candidate, watch out.

10. Kentucky (R-McConnell) - is McConnell in trouble? Yes. But he's still got $$$ and is running in a state that votes Republican pretty solidly federally. Whether Grimes gets over the line comes down to how well she handles being nuked by McConnell.

11. Colorado (D-Udall) - I flagged this as a race to watch last time I did this, but I did not expect Udall to be in as big trouble as he is now. First the polling showed him to be potentially vulnerable, then Gardner, their strongest candidate, jumped in. While it remains to be seen how good of a candidate he is in practice, this is one race the Democrats should start to worry about.

12. Iowa (D-Open) - this is one state where the Republicans dropped the ball. On paper, this should've been a great chance for a pickup as it's an open seat in a purple (albeit with a blue tinge) state. But the Dems concealed around one candidate, and all the Republicans got were a bunch of second and third-tier candidates. Loseable in a wave, but probably won't fall in neutral circumstances.

13. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - still think Brown is over-rated. Even if the year is bad for the Dems, doubt it'll be bad enough for fairly popular incumbents to lose in D-leaning states.

14. Mississippi (R-Cochran) - Childers getting in makes this race a lot more interesting. It remains to be seen how crazy one can be to blow a race in Mississippi, but at least we have a contingency plan here. Obviously if Cochran wins the primary, he should win easily.

15. Virginia (D-Warner) - Gillespie makes Scott Brown look like the most under-appreciated candidate of all time. Warner has little to fear.

16. Oregon (D-Merkley) - apparently a few potentially compelling candidates are interested, but none of them are particularly well-known, and unless the cycle goes from bad to nightmarish for the Democrats, any chances that this race becomes dangerous for Merkley seems far fetched.

17. Minnesota (D-Franken) - McFadden does have decent fundraising, but he's still a third-tier candidate at best and the base isn't big on him. Franken should be safe.

18. New Mexico (D-Udall) - yeah, nah. No-one who could even make Udall campaign looks like running.

19. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - while the primary is still very unpredictable, either Schatz or Hanabusa will most likely win the general.

20. Tennessee (R-Alexander) - I did see one poll which showed that this race might become interesting if Alexander got primaried, it is only one data point, we don't have a contingency plan ala Mississippi and Alexander doesn't look to be in too much danger in a primary anyway.

21. Kansas (R-Roberts) - Roberts looks pretty safe in a primary, though PPP did show his approvals low and a potentially interesting race if he does get Tea Partied.

22. Maine (R-Collins) - barring a major primary upset, Collins is safe. While Bellows trying to run as a strong progressive might be an interesting strategy for future races, I doubt she gets much traction.

23. South Carolina-A (R-Graham) - even if Graham does get primaried, there are no signs that the Democrats look interested in competing here.

24. Nebraska (R-Open) - on paper, an open seat should be interesting, but the Democrats don't have a candidate.

25. New Jersey (D-Booker) - Booker won by an underwhelming margin in 2013, but he looks safe this time around. Besides, he's cozied up to the NJRP enough to avoid serious opposition.

26. Oklahoma-B (R-Open) - although this is an open seat, and Oklahoma do have a couple of interesting Democrats who could hypothetically make this race interesting, it doesn't look like they have any interest in running.

27. Massachusetts (D-Markey) - Markey might be uninspiring, but this is Massachusetts and he hasn't really done anything to offend his constituents.

28. Texas (R-Cornyn) - now that Cornyn has won his primary, he should be safe. Alameel has money, but he isn't anywhere near seasoned enough to test Cornyn.

29. Delaware (D-Coons) - Coons isn't super-entrenched, but he's running in a blue state without a proper candidate.

30. South Carolina-B (R-Scott) - Democrats have better opportunities in other statewide offices.

31. Illinois (D-Durbin) - Durbin is entrenched.

32. Idaho (R-Risch) - it's Idaho.

33. Oklahoma-A (R-Inhofe) - Inhofe is entrenched and it's Oklahoma.

34. Alabama (R-Sessions) - Sessions is entrenched and it's Alabama.

35. Rhode Island (D-Reed) - Reed is entrenched and it's Rhode Island.

36. Wyoming (R-Enzi) - Enzi is entrenched and it's Wyoming.

[SWE]

On the D side:
1. South Dakota
2. Montana
3. West Virginia
4. Arkansans
5. North Carolina
6. Michigan
7. Louisiana
8. Alaska
9. Colorado
10. Iowa

And all other D held seats are perfectly safe

For the Rs:
1. Georgia
2. Kentucky
3. Mississippi

[MATTROSE94]

On the D side:
1. South Dakota
2. Montana
3. West Virginia
4. Arkansans
5. North Carolina
6. Michigan
7. Louisiana
8. Alaska
9. Colorado
10. Iowa

And all other D held seats are perfectly safe

For the Rs:
1. Georgia
2. Kentucky
3. Mississippi

Lamar Alexander and Lindsey Graham could easily get primaried by Joe Carr and Lee Bright. If they both are, would the Democrats have a shot at their seats as well?

[SWE]

On the D side:
1. South Dakota
2. Montana
3. West Virginia
4. Arkansans
5. North Carolina
6. Michigan
7. Louisiana
8. Alaska
9. Colorado
10. Iowa

And all other D held seats are perfectly safe

For the Rs:
1. Georgia
2. Kentucky
3. Mississippi

Lamar Alexander and Lindsey Graham could easily get primaried by Joe Carr and Lee Bright. If they both are, would the Democrats have a shot at their seats as well?

No. Dems don't have a candidate as strong as Childers in SC and Tennessee

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe Pickups:

South Dakota (R)

Likely Pickups:

West Virginia (R)
Montana (R)

Lean Pickups:

Arkansas (R)

Toss-Up Pickups:

Alaska (R)
Louisiana (R)
North Carolina (R)

Lean Non-Pickups:

Michigan (R)
Colorado (R)
Iowa (R)
Kentucky (D)
Georgia (D)

Likely Non-Pickups:

Minnesota (R)
New Hampshire (R)
Virginia (R)
Oregon (R)

Safe Non-Pickups:

Everything else