2. North Dakota (Open) - while I'm skeptical of internals, it appears that Berg looks like a dud candidate. While the partisan lean of North Dakota will probably get him a win, it isn't as easy as most people expect.
Going by polling alone, it looks like Heitkamp has the advantage. While you should always take internals with a grain of salt, so far all available polling has Heitkamp up roughly 5 points. Even more, Rick Berg paid $24,000 to Public Opinion Strategies to poll the senate race back in January, and he has yet to release the results. If a pollster paid for by the Republicans can't show Berg with a lead, this seat may very well stay Democratic.
Overall, this is a really good analysis of the 2012 senate races!
