Ranking the Senate Races....

[hopper]

2. North Dakota (Open) - while I'm skeptical of internals, it appears that Berg looks like a dud candidate. While the partisan lean of North Dakota will probably get him a win, it isn't as easy as most people expect.

Going by polling alone, it looks like Heitkamp has the advantage. While you should always take internals with a grain of salt, so far all available polling has Heitkamp up roughly 5 points. Even more, Rick Berg paid $24,000 to Public Opinion Strategies to poll the senate race back in January, and he has yet to  release the results. If a pollster paid for by the Republicans can't show Berg with a lead, this seat may very well stay Democratic.

Overall, this is a really good analysis of the 2012 senate races!

Yeah Heitkamp is a good candidate. Berg just doesn't have name recognition. The Dems also have a good candidate for the North Dakota-At Large House Seat.

That would be funny to see John Hooven serve with Heitkamp in the Senate since Hooven defeated her in the 2000 North Dakota Governor's race. That was Hooven's closest election  race for Governor too.

[hopper]

Wisconsin-Well if Baldwin wins she would be serving with Ron Johnson. Talk about polar opposites.

New Jersey-(The state that I live in.)If the Republicans could have ran Jennifer Beck against Menendez the Republicans would have a victory there. Even Frank LiBiondo would be decent to run against Menendez. Joe Kyrollis isn't a household name for New Jerseyens.

Washington State-Reichert would have been perfect to run against Cantwell. I think he said no though and his House Seat was made safer in redistricting. Maybe he is waiting for Murray to retire in 2016! She has been there a long time afterall. Cantwell hasn't been in Washington D.C. that long in comparison to Murray. She was defeated as a US House Member in the Republican Wave in 1994 and came back in 2001 to be a US Senator.

Hawaii-Don't count out Lingle yet. She won re-election for Governor in 2006 in a dem year.

Connecticut-I still can't see Shays winning even if he win the Primary. I mean Obama is on top of the ballot in Connecticut. Shays lost his House Seat in 2008 because Obama was on top of the ballot.

Virginia-Like somebody said it depends on the Presidential Election.

Montana-toss-up of all toss-ups. Rehberg did vote against "The Ryan Plan" the first time it came up for a vote but don't know about the second time it came up for a vote. Voting against "The Ryan Plan" the first time that it came up for a vote may help him out some.

Missouri-Ditto like Montana but McCaskill voted for ObamaCare. The Republicans will feast on that vote this Election Season.




 

[hopper]

I can't recall the reasons for each state in reaching these tallies, but here's the bottom line:

If all the breaks go the Republicans' way, the GOP will net +7.
If all the breaks go the Democrats' way, then the GOP will net +3.

A -3 result would be a real victory for Democrats defending 23 seats against their opponents' 10, especially considering that all of these 23 seats were ones the Democrats won in the "wave year" of 2006.

Btw, we need to change the filibuster rules.  It's ridiculous to require 60 votes for nearly everything.

I thought it used to be 51 votes for spending bills. What happened to that particular rule after 2009 I believe?

[hopper]

Likely Pickup

1. Nebraska (D-Open [was Ben Nelson]) - no real hope for Kerrey here unless Fischer completely flops, and even then she might still win here.

2. Maine (R-Open [was Snowe]) - King will kill his pitiful opposition unless Dill lights a Christmas tree, but who he caucuses with is unknown. However, I think he'll caucus with the Democrats.

Toss-up

3. North Dakota (D-Open [was Conrad]) - although I think the partisan lean of North Dakota will eventually be too much for Heitkamp, Berg has proved totally incompetent and turned a likely pickup to a toss-up.

4. Missouri (D-McCaskill) - she's in a load of sh**t, but the Republican candidates I feel are too right-wing for this not to be competitive.

5. Wisconsin (D-Open [was Kohl]) - Baldwin is struggling big time and the recall will the Reps here, but I reckon it could become very competitive if Thompson loses the primary, which remains very possible given in Indiana and Nebraska.

6. Montana (D-Tester) - a close fight, could go either way. I give Rehberg an edge though as Montana is quite red.

7. Massachusetts (R-Scott Brown) - see Montana, except this state is very blue rather than red.

8. Virginia (D-Open [was Webb]) - the ultra swing state. Very feasible that it may decide the Presidency and the Senate.

9. Indiana (R-Open [was Lugar]) - see North Dakota. Republicans really screwed this race up.

Leans Retention

10. Nevada (R-Heller) - most polls are showing Heller with a lead. While it's impossible to rule out the Harry Reid machine, advantage Republican at this stage.

11. Ohio (D-Sherrod Brown)

12. New Mexico (D-Open [was Bingaman]) - polling and coat-tails favour Heinrich.

13. Florida (D-Bill Nelson) - should have been competitive, but Mack has been a failed candidate.

Likely Retention

14. Hawaii (D-Open [was Akaka])

15. Arizona (R-Open [was Kyl]) - polling has shown this to be fairly competitive but I still think Carmona's a long shot.

16. New Jersey (D-Medendez)

17. Connecticut (ID-Open [was Lieberman]) - polling has shown this surprisingly competitive, but I can't see Murphy losing.

18. Michigan (D-Stabenow)

Safe Retention

19. West Virginia (D-Manchin) - surely the Reps could've found a better candidate than Raese?

20. Pennsylvania (D-Casey) - running an untested businessman is a weakness, not a strength. Particularly given the Republicans have a strong bench here and Casey's approvals are surprisingly tepid.

21. Minnesota (D-Klobuchar)

22. Texas (R-Open [was Hutchison]) - Dems didn't provide proper opposition to an open seat.

23. Washington (D-Cantwell)

24. Tennessee (R-Corker)

25. Utah (R-Hatch) - a primary loss could shake it up, but it's Utah.

26. New York (D-Gilliband)

27. California (D-Feinstein)

28. Delaware (D-Carper)

29. Maryland (D-Cardin)

30. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse)

31. Mississippi (R-Wicker)

32. Vermont (ID-Sanders)

33. Wyoming (R-Barrasso)

2014 (I'm doing this in order of vulnerability)

Very Vulnerable:

1. Alaska (D-Begich) - Begich only barely won against a convicted felon in 2008. In less favourable circumstances and against a non-corrupt Republican, he is probably toast.

2. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - Landrieu got tested by a little funded Republican opponent in 2008 and Louisiana is trending red hard. She is in a lot of trouble.

3. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - Arkansas is trending red hard, and Pryor doesn't appear to be very popular. He too is in quite a lot of trouble.

4. Montana (D-Baucus) - Yes Baucus has been a Senate figure for over 30 years, but his welcome appears to be worn out and Montana is still fundamentally a red state. Baucus is in trouble.

Vulnerable

5. North Carolina (D-Hagan) - Hagan isn't very popular, and the state has never truly loved their Senators. Could be trouble.

6. South Dakota (D-Johnson?) - a lot depends on Johnson. Will he make another run, given his health issues? Might Mike Rounds (who seems likely to run) make him work for him job or scare him into retirement? If Johnson runs again however, he is probably the favourite. If not, this race will become the Republicans #1 pickup opportunity.

7. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - key swing state. New Hampshire appears to returning to its red roots after the Lynch experiment and Shaheen isn't extremely well established. Could be interesting, though if the Dems pick up the house seats it may fall off the radar.

8. West Virginia (D-Rockefeller?) - it seems likely that Rockefeller will retire after this election. Although West Virginia is trending Republican hard at the Presidential level, it is still quite blue outside of it, so it is probably still leaning Dem unless Capito wants this seat.

9. Kentucky (R-McConnell) - Yes McConnell is a machine man, but his approvals are in the dump. And they could get worse if Romney wins. This is the Dems best pickup opportunity this cycle and they won't want to waste it. If Obama wins however, it'll take a lot of heat off McConnell.

Potentially Vulnerable

10. New Jersey (D-Lautenberg?) - Lautenberg will probably retire after this election. As it is, he is quite unpopular, but unless Christie wants the seat, it will probably remain in Democratic hands.

11. New Mexico (D-T Udall) - Tom Udall seems to be fairly quiet, and the Hispanic advantage is probably less relevant in a mid-term election. Nevertheless, it'll probably be hard to stop him.

12. Maine (R-Collins?) - This race depends entirely on Collins. If she runs for re-election, she'll easily win, but will she? Or can she? A primary challenge or a retirement is not out of the question.

13. Colorado (D-M Udall) - Mark Udall seems to be making a name for himself, so he is probably OK.

14. Minnesota (D-Franken) - Franken will be the liberal icon that the Reps would love to knock over, but can they? The state seems to be returning to its blue roots after the Pawlenty experiment, and he is 50+ against the likes of Coleman and Pawlenty, let alone Bachmann.

15. Iowa (D-Harkin) - Harkin is very well entrenched. Simply put, this race ranks where it is as there aren't any better options, unless Branstad gets in his mind that being a Senator might be a good option.

16. Michigan (D-Levin?) - Levin would need to retire, which is possible. If he does, the seat will become a toss-up, perhaps leaning R.

17. Virginia (D-Warner?) - some talk that Warner will run for Governor or even retire. He won't lose if he runs but it'll become a toss-up if he doesn't, perhaps leaning R.

18. South Carolina (R-Graham?) - Graham might get primaried, but it's unclear what effect that might have as South Carolina tends to be fairly conservative.

19. Georgia (R-Chambliss) - A chance with proper targeting at a GE, but a midterm might be one step too far.

Safe (for now)

20. Oregon (D-Merkley) - only narrowly won in 2008, but who would beat him? I don't see Smith running again.

21. Oklahoma (R-Inhofe?) - Inhofe might retire, but Oklahoma doesn't like sending Democrats to Washington.

22. Illinois (D-Durbin?) - might retire, but even then there's a weak bench in Illinois, and I really don't see them giving the Reps 2 seats.

23. Mississippi (R-Cochran?) - I don't see him running again, but are there any Dems who can win in Mississippi currently?

24. Tennessee (R-Alexander) - see Oklahoma, except Alexander is running again.

25. Texas (R-Cornyn?) - may get primaried, but it's Texas, and in a mid-term.

26. Nebraska (R-Johanns) - fairly well entrenched, plus the Dems don't really have a bench here.

27. Kansas (R-Roberts) - very well entrenched, even if Seliebus or Parkinson runs they'll probably lose.

28. Delaware (D-Coons) - Republicans don't have a bench here.

29. Massachusetts (D-Kerry?) - Kerry may retire, or pick up the SoS slot, but the Republicans don't have a bench here.

30. Wyoming (R-Enzi?) - Enzi may retire, but are there any non-Frudenthal Dems in Wyoming?

31. Alabama (R-Sessions) - unless Sessions retires, the Dems have no hope. Even with a retirement, there aren't really many strong candidates here that are still Democrats.

32. Rhode Island (D-Reed) - no real shot, Rhode Island is just too blue.

33. Idaho (R-Risch) - no real shot, Idaho is just too red.

Indiana-No Republicans didn't mess that race up-Lugar did plus Murdock has been in politics for 20+ years. He is not a newcomer to politics by any means.

Colorado 2014-Yeah watch out a PPP poll should former Governor Bill Owens only 4 points behind Mark Udall in that race so if Owens runs it could be a toss-up race. 

Virginia 2014- I thought Warner can't run for Governor again there because of the single term limit rule.

[hopper]

The Utah Senate race is incredibly depressing; the candidate is good on paper (and in speeches), but it's Scott Howell, the guy who ran against Hatch in 2000 and who lost by 30 points. Hatch is just too entrenched, too wily, and Utah is much to ingrained into the attitude of electing Hatch to change. Governor Herbert is more vulnerable than Hatch, for crying out loud. I would bet that if any Utah Democratic fluke wins happen this year, it'll be in the Governor's seat, not the Senate.

Governor Herbert is popular though. He will still be hard to beat.