Obama - 45%
Gingrich - 45%
Undecided - 10%
The undecideds lean to the right, however Gingrich receives 25% of the "very liberal" vote...
Gingrich is as much a political nutter as Bachmann; he's just more slippery and sophisticated. He will need the aid of a statewide machine, and a collapsing GOP machine in Arizona will prove of little help.
I'm going to figure that the large Hispanic vote, conservative on issues of lifestyle, will reject a moral reprobate in favor of someone whose family life is as conventional as it gets.