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Poll
Question: who will win
Scott Brown   -22 (35.5%)
Democratic nominee   -39 (62.9%)
other   -1 (1.6%)
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Total Voters: 62

Author Topic: who will win - MA  (Read 2898 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« on: November 30, 2011, 04:16:33 pm »
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who will win
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« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2011, 04:25:37 pm »
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Scott Brown.
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« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2011, 04:26:46 pm »
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Elizabeth Warren and by a very large margin.
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« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2011, 04:34:06 pm »
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Brown by three points.
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« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2011, 04:59:03 pm »
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I think Brown will make it
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« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2011, 05:21:26 pm »
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Elizabeth Warren and by a very large margin.

bigger than Kerry1996?
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“They cheated us again and again, made decisions behind our back, presenting us with completed facts. That’s the way it was with the expansion of NATO in the East, with the deployment of military infrastructure at our borders. They always told us the same thing: 'Well, this doesn't concern you.'" -Vladimir Putin
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« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2011, 07:03:29 pm »
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Brown if current trend's hold. He's still relatively well liked by the people of Mass and hasn't done much to piss the electorate off.

Also Warren is vastly overrated by the Dem hacks on here.
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« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2011, 07:07:57 pm »
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Brown if current trend hold. He's still relatively well liked by the people of Mass and hasn't done much to piss the electorate off.

Also Warren is vastly overrated by the Dem hacks on here.

Yep, she's (O-MA).
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« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2011, 07:28:18 pm »
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Elizabeth Warren.
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« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2011, 07:41:11 pm »
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The ghost of Ted Kennedy.


In the real world, I hope Warren.
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« Reply #10 on: December 01, 2011, 12:50:28 am »
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Warren-D
In MA, Democratic voter turnout in Presidential election years are high. Warren can get the same percent of the vote as Coakley among Republicans and Independents but will do better among Democrats than Coakley.
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« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2011, 05:05:39 am »
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Brown if current trend's hold. He's still relatively well liked by the people of Mass and hasn't done much to piss the electorate off.

That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009: a special election scheduled in a middle of nowhere of American electoral calendar. 2012 will not only be a regular year, but also a presidential election one. Democratic turnout in Massachusetts will be high and this is a clear advantage for a Democratic candidate.
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« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2011, 08:37:23 am »
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That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

That was also during a heavily Democratic year in which Chafee was saddled with an incredibly unpopular incumbent president.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009: a special election scheduled in a middle of nowhere of American electoral calendar. 2012 will not only be a regular year, but also a presidential election one. Democratic turnout in Massachusetts will be high and this is a clear advantage for a Democratic candidate.

Please do not fall into the trap of assuming the special election in which Brown was elected was a low turnout one. Quite the opposite. The same number of people turned out in 2010 Senate special -- about 2,200,000 -- as did the 2010 general election -- again, about 2,200,000.
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« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2011, 10:41:26 am »
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That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

That was also during a heavily Democratic year in which Chafee was saddled with an incredibly unpopular incumbent president.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009: a special election scheduled in a middle of nowhere of American electoral calendar. 2012 will not only be a regular year, but also a presidential election one. Democratic turnout in Massachusetts will be high and this is a clear advantage for a Democratic candidate.

Please do not fall into the trap of assuming the special election in which Brown was elected was a low turnout one. Quite the opposite. The same number of people turned out in 2010 Senate special -- about 2,200,000 -- as did the 2010 general election -- again, about 2,200,000.

Really? That's suprising because I still heard turnout argument.

Anyway, I'm not from Massachusetts like you, so my position here is weaker, but Chafee was less of party and Bush loyalist than Brown seems to be GOP loyalist right now.

Also, 2010 was, um, a special year, when a lot of people choose to vote for Brown in order to show their yellow card to Obama. Also, Coakley was really pathetic candidate.
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« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2011, 11:05:55 am »
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Elizabeth Warren, no doubt.
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« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2011, 11:14:31 am »
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Elizabeth Warren and by a very large margin.

bigger than Kerry1996?

I'll be risky and go on record: yes.
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« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2011, 11:51:05 am »
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That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

That was also during a heavily Democratic year in which Chafee was saddled with an incredibly unpopular incumbent president.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009: a special election scheduled in a middle of nowhere of American electoral calendar. 2012 will not only be a regular year, but also a presidential election one. Democratic turnout in Massachusetts will be high and this is a clear advantage for a Democratic candidate.

Please do not fall into the trap of assuming the special election in which Brown was elected was a low turnout one. Quite the opposite. The same number of people turned out in 2010 Senate special -- about 2,200,000 -- as did the 2010 general election -- again, about 2,200,000.

Really? That's suprising because I still heard turnout argument.

Anyway, I'm not from Massachusetts like you, so my position here is weaker, but Chafee was less of party and Bush loyalist than Brown seems to be GOP loyalist right now.

Also, 2010 was, um, a special year, when a lot of people choose to vote for Brown in order to show their yellow card to Obama. Also, Coakley was really pathetic candidate.

How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Now Massachusetts like Rhode Island is an overwhelmingly Democratic state overall, and no doubt will MA will go to Obama. However 2012 is looking like anything but a Democratic year, especially in the Senate.  
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« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2011, 12:06:13 pm »
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Brown if current trend's hold. He's still relatively well liked by the people of Mass and hasn't done much to piss the electorate off.

That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009

You call having to close a thirty point defecit in just a few weeks a comfortable situation?
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« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2011, 02:33:45 pm »
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Brown if current trend's hold. He's still relatively well liked by the people of Mass and hasn't done much to piss the electorate off.

That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009

You call having to close a thirty point defecit in just a few weeks a comfortable situation?

Yes, because he is a Republican who got elected to the United States Senate from freaking Massachusetts.

Now Massachusetts like Rhode Island is an overwhelmingly Democratic state overall, and no doubt will MA will go to Obama. However 2012 is looking like anything but a Democratic year, especially in the Senate.  

And it's too early to say anything for sure.
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« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2011, 02:36:15 pm »
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How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Such approvals are usually good news for incumbent Senator running for reelection.

Anyway, under good circumstances "R" next to Brown's name in November may play a factor too. We just don't know how would the situation look in November 2012 and assuming anything is at best premature.

By the way, unless many Democrats here, I'm not saying Brown is definitively going to lose, but he's not all-odds-safe either.
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« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2011, 02:47:15 pm »
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Please do not fall into the trap of assuming the special election in which Brown was elected was a low turnout one. Quite the opposite. The same number of people turned out in 2010 Senate special -- about 2,200,000 -- as did the 2010 general election -- again, about 2,200,000.

It's not a "trap," it's a solid point. It was high turnout for a special election--but that's a caveat. You know that turnout in 2012 will be much higher than it was in the 2010 general or special election. Brown would have won anyway, but Dem performance in cities like Lowell and Lawrence collapsed because people stayed home who only come out for Presidential elections.

Scott Brown got 1,168,107 votes and won in 2010.
John McCain got only 60,000 votes fewer in 2008 and was absolutely trounced.

How many more people are going to vote for Brown who didn't vote for him in January 2010? Some, possibly... and maybe he won't lose too many who voted for him then because of his opponent or conditions at the time... but enough to get him to 50%? Tough. Can happen, but tough.
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« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2011, 05:41:36 pm »
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How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Such approvals are usually good news for incumbent Senator running for reelection.

Anyway, under good circumstances "R" next to Brown's name in November may play a factor too. We just don't know how would the situation look in November 2012 and assuming anything is at best premature.

By the way, unless many Democrats here, I'm not saying Brown is definitively going to lose, but he's not all-odds-safe either.

True to both of your points,

Given the state he's in and that it's early on Brown's clearly not safe. However, given the early indicators I do think the odds's are in his favour.
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« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2011, 05:49:59 pm »
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How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Such approvals are usually good news for incumbent Senator running for reelection.

Anyway, under good circumstances "R" next to Brown's name in November may play a factor too. We just don't know how would the situation look in November 2012 and assuming anything is at best premature.

By the way, unless many Democrats here, I'm not saying Brown is definitively going to lose, but he's not all-odds-safe either.

True to both of your points,

Given the state he's in and that it's early on Brown's clearly not safe. However, given the early indicators I do think the odds's are in his favour.

If there is more polling to back up what came out today, I don't know how you could say he is in a better position than Ben Nelson at the moment...
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« Reply #23 on: December 01, 2011, 07:49:44 pm »
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YouGov is garbage according to Silver- they make Ras look like Gallup. I'd wait for a PPP or UMass poll myself.
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« Reply #24 on: December 01, 2011, 07:58:45 pm »
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The YouGov poll was also a UMass poll so I'm not sure what you mean by 'waiting for a UMass poll'.

I'd say that this race is somewhere between Tilt and Lean D right now, all things considered, but who knows what might change.
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