who will win - MA

[RogueBeaver]

The YouGov poll was also a UMass poll.

I'd say that this race is somewhere between Tilt and Lean D right now, all things considered, but who knows what might change.

It was done in coordination with YouGov, so forgive me for being doubtful. Brown would have needed an oops moment to drop 8 points in a month, and as Sabato said today both candidates are running largely flawless campaigns.

[asexual trans victimologist]

The YouGov poll was also a UMass poll.

I'd say that this race is somewhere between Tilt and Lean D right now, all things considered, but who knows what might change.

It was done in coordination with YouGov, so forgive me for being doubtful. Brown would have needed an oops moment to drop 8 points in a month, and as Sabato said today both candidates are running largely flawless campaigns.

It might just have to do with the relative number of undecideds this far out. Plus, it's Massachusetts. If both candidates run flawless campaigns then all else being equal things tend to break for the Democrat. Brown's incumbency advantage is why I'm saying this is really only Tilt D or so at this stage. We're a long way off yet.

I'm not sure my university even does polls out of coordination with other groups anyway.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If Romney is leading the Republican ticket, Brown will probably pull it out. If it's Newt, he'll have less-than-even odds of winning. If it's one of the teabaggers, he'll lose.

[asexual trans victimologist]

If Romney is leading the Republican ticket, Brown will probably pull it out. If it's Newt, he'll have less-than-even odds of winning. If it's one of the teabaggers, he'll lose.

I think you might be overestimating Romney's continued popularity in Massachusetts.

[nkpatel1279]

During the 2000,2004,and 2008 Presidential Election in MA, The Democratic Presidential nominees won by a 25% margin. Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004 favorite son. Obama in 2008. In 2012, Romney, assuming he is the Republican nominee will lose MA by 20 percent margin.

[Username MechaRFK]

If Romney is leading the Republican ticket, Brown will probably pull it out. If it's Newt, he'll have less-than-even odds of winning. If it's one of the teabaggers, he'll lose.

I think you might be overestimating Romney's continued popularity in Massachusetts.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Such approvals are usually good news for incumbent Senator running for reelection.

Anyway, under good circumstances "R" next to Brown's name in November may play a factor too. We just don't know how would the situation look in November 2012 and assuming anything is at best premature.

By the way, unless many Democrats here, I'm not saying Brown is definitively going to lose, but he's not all-odds-safe either.

True to both of your points,

Given the state he's in and that it's early on Brown's clearly not safe. However, given the early indicators I do think the odds's are in his favour.

If there is more polling to back up what came out today, I don't know how you could say he is in a better position than Ben Nelson at the moment...

Actually, Kevin is right about early indicators being friendly to Brown. Nelson on the other hand is really screwed.

[Former Moderate]

If Romney is leading the Republican ticket, Brown will probably pull it out. If it's Newt, he'll have less-than-even odds of winning. If it's one of the teabaggers, he'll lose.

I think you might be overestimating Romney's continued popularity in Massachusetts.

Romney will easily outperform the other Republican nominees, I think, is the point. He's likely to lose the state by only 10-15, whereas Newt might lose by 20-25. Might be enough to matter.

[Former Moderate]

This is kinda neat: The UMass/YouGov poll asked respondents to describe Brown and Warren in a word, and then made clouds of the responses.

Scott Brown:



Elizabeth Warren:

[colincb]

Warren will win fairly easily.  Turnout in the special election was approximately 800,000 votes less than 2008. According to Wikipedia, "... The drop in turnout was smallest (around 25%) in areas that supported Obama in the 2008 election by less than 60%. Turnout fell 30% among towns that supported Obama by over 60%. In Boston, which supported Obama by almost 79% in 2008, the decrease in 2010 voter turnout was even more pronounced, at about 35%. ..."

As for GOP presidential drag factors, Romney was down 24% in an early October 2011 UMass poll and Perry was down 37%.  Give all the undecideds to the GOP candidate and that comes down to a 17% margin vs Romney and a 25% margin vs Perry.  My guess is that Gingrich would do even worse than Perry who was reportedly the only guy that local legend Tip O'Nelil said he hated.

Brown is not as popular as he was and the GOP brand is otherwise toxic.

[krazen1211]

Elizabeth Warren doesn't know her Red Sox. Lol!

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/12/07/warren_flubs_red_sox_question.html

[© Tweed the Younger]

Elizabeth Warren doesn't know her Red Sox. Lol!

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/12/07/warren_flubs_red_sox_question.html

she got one of the two

[Former Moderate]

hahah I hate this state and how that crap matters to voters

[asexual trans victimologist]

It matters when it's somebody with the incredibly cold and unlikeable image of Martha Coakley doing it. Somehow, I can't think why, but I doubt that a year out from the election anybody at all other than krazen and possibly Warren herself will remember it come the actual vote. Huge difference between simply not actively following the Red Sox and explicitly insulting their fans and one of their star players the way Coakley did.

[Username MechaRFK]

hahah I hate this state and how that crap matters to voters

This helps the Republicans win the "common man" vote when they pull this garbage.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Kerry screwed up some Red Sox stuff in '04 so I wouldn't say it actually matters

[Sibboleth]

Not knowing who Bill Shankly was didn't hurt Luciana Berger one bit...

[Invisible Obama]

Who really cares? She's running for United States Senate, not Baseball Commissioner, it's totally irrelevant. Only phony, fluff politicians, like her opponent, rely on sports to win elections.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Not knowing who Bill Shankly was didn't hurt Luciana Berger one bit...

just Googled her and she's pretty hot.  what's the deal with the Co-Operative party?

[Former Moderate]

Who really cares? She's running for United States Senate, not Baseball Commissioner, it's totally irrelevant. Only phony, fluff politicians, like her opponent, rely on sports to win elections.

Well, it plays to the image of Liz Warren being an elitist. Part of the Cambridge crowd.

[nkpatel1279]

A recent Boston Herald sponsored poll out today has Warren leading Brown by a 46-41 percent margin. Previous BH poll had Brown leading by 41-38 percent margin.

[Chairman Wow]

This is an interesting attack line that the GOP seems to be testing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78NZk1o8nr0&feature=player_embedded#!

As to Romney, being the "meh" candidate will certainly help! Really the best the MA gop can hope for is someone who simply does not engender any sort of passion is named to the top of the ticket.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This is an interesting attack line that the GOP seems to be testing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78NZk1o8nr0&feature=player_embedded#!

As to Romney, being the "meh" candidate will certainly help! Really the best the MA gop can hope for is someone who simply does not engender any sort of passion is named to the top of the ticket.

Indeed. Very interesting that Warren was simultaneously the instigator of OWS and a stooge of the big banks. I guess they are taking a page out of Gingrich's "Obama is a Secular Radical Muslim Atheist" book.
 

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm... trial run it, see what happens. Wall St. is a "pox on both your houses" narrative IMO. Brown gets campaign contributions, dances the tightrope on financial regulatory votes. Warren is the self-proclaimed Occupy godmother, but was involved with TARP. Right now I'm not convinced either side will benefit from that narrative.