who will win - MA

[Kevin]

Brown if current trend's hold. He's still relatively well liked by the people of Mass and hasn't done much to piss the electorate off.

Also Warren is vastly overrated by the Dem hacks on here.

[Kevin]

That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

That was also during a heavily Democratic year in which Chafee was saddled with an incredibly unpopular incumbent president.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009: a special election scheduled in a middle of nowhere of American electoral calendar. 2012 will not only be a regular year, but also a presidential election one. Democratic turnout in Massachusetts will be high and this is a clear advantage for a Democratic candidate.

Please do not fall into the trap of assuming the special election in which Brown was elected was a low turnout one. Quite the opposite. The same number of people turned out in 2010 Senate special -- about 2,200,000 -- as did the 2010 general election -- again, about 2,200,000.

Really? That's suprising because I still heard turnout argument.

Anyway, I'm not from Massachusetts like you, so my position here is weaker, but Chafee was less of party and Bush loyalist than Brown seems to be GOP loyalist right now.

Also, 2010 was, um, a special year, when a lot of people choose to vote for Brown in order to show their yellow card to Obama. Also, Coakley was really pathetic candidate.

How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Now Massachusetts like Rhode Island is an overwhelmingly Democratic state overall, and no doubt will MA will go to Obama. However 2012 is looking like anything but a Democratic year, especially in the Senate.  

[Kevin]

How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Such approvals are usually good news for incumbent Senator running for reelection.

Anyway, under good circumstances "R" next to Brown's name in November may play a factor too. We just don't know how would the situation look in November 2012 and assuming anything is at best premature.

By the way, unless many Democrats here, I'm not saying Brown is definitively going to lose, but he's not all-odds-safe either.

True to both of your points,

Given the state he's in and that it's early on Brown's clearly not safe. However, given the early indicators I do think the odds's are in his favour.