who will win - MA

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The YouGov poll was also a UMass poll so I'm not sure what you mean by 'waiting for a UMass poll'.

I'd say that this race is somewhere between Tilt and Lean D right now, all things considered, but who knows what might change.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The YouGov poll was also a UMass poll.

I'd say that this race is somewhere between Tilt and Lean D right now, all things considered, but who knows what might change.

It was done in coordination with YouGov, so forgive me for being doubtful. Brown would have needed an oops moment to drop 8 points in a month, and as Sabato said today both candidates are running largely flawless campaigns.

It might just have to do with the relative number of undecideds this far out. Plus, it's Massachusetts. If both candidates run flawless campaigns then all else being equal things tend to break for the Democrat. Brown's incumbency advantage is why I'm saying this is really only Tilt D or so at this stage. We're a long way off yet.

I'm not sure my university even does polls out of coordination with other groups anyway.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If Romney is leading the Republican ticket, Brown will probably pull it out. If it's Newt, he'll have less-than-even odds of winning. If it's one of the teabaggers, he'll lose.

I think you might be overestimating Romney's continued popularity in Massachusetts.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It matters when it's somebody with the incredibly cold and unlikeable image of Martha Coakley doing it. Somehow, I can't think why, but I doubt that a year out from the election anybody at all other than krazen and possibly Warren herself will remember it come the actual vote. Huge difference between simply not actively following the Red Sox and explicitly insulting their fans and one of their star players the way Coakley did.