Why Gingrich is Bad (and Romney is Awesome): A Politico Megathread Spectacular

[tmthforu94]

When pitching my case for Romney and against Gingrich to friends and family, I often say this. How can we call ourselves the party of family values when we nominate a candidate who's had multiple affairs and had ethics charge brought against them.

Considering how big Santorum is on family, I'm surprised he hasn't launched an all-out attack on Gingrich. Probably campaigning for a VP slot.

[tmthforu94]

More and more bits and pieces are surfacing about Gingrich's past, and he'll probably keep apologizing and saying he's made mistakes. So if Barack Obama stood up tomorrow and said "You know what, I've made some mistakes during my Presidency, and I'm sorry for those. Will you please support my Presidential candidate?" Under Newt's logic, everyone should just forgive him and give him another term.

[tmthforu94]

An excellent article about Gingrich:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Robert-Reich/2011/1214/Gingrich-s-tax-plan-takes-him-from-irresponsible-to-reckless

Cain 2.0

[tmthforu94]

We all were saying a week or two ago when Newt shot up that it wasn't over, that Romney was still going to win, and by the way things are starting to look, I think we're going to be right.

[tmthforu94]

I'm not going to sit here and say Romney's going to be the next President - Obama has at least a 45% against him right now. But Romney is the only GOP candidate who would have a competitive race against Obama if the economy is roughly the same. Just like any other candidate, he'd probably lose if we had an economic boom (though not as badly). However, if the economy gets worse, Romney would have a pretty solid chance of winning the White House. If economic conditions decline with any other GOP candidate, this race goes from lean-Obama to toss-up.

[tmthforu94]

Romney has lead or tied Obama in Ohio, led in North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Maine and Connecticut are somewhat close with Romney as the nominee, and NJ and IA aren't out of reach.

I'm not trying to say Romney will be headed into the general election with an advantage, but I certainly don't Obama has a "solid win in the electoral college". Maybe against Gingrich, but not Romney.

[tmthforu94]

If Obama has to use serious resources on Pennsylvania and Michigan in October, a distinct possibility against Romney, Obama is Jimmy Carter 1980 at worst and Al Gore 2000 at best. It will be a one term proposition for the president.

The only evidence so far  that Obama is in serious trouble in Michigan are a pair of very questionable EPIC/MRA polls.  Obama might have a problem there if the economy goes into another mild stall, but I don't see that happening.

Two other polls by two different firms had Obama leading Romney by 3 and 1 points, respectively. Certainly not good news for Obama, considering he easily won the state in 2008.

[tmthforu94]

Amen. Even in early December when many were writing Romney off, I remained firm. The only time I ever even came close to doubting a Romney nomination was when it was rumored Christie would run. Even though I figured he wouldn't, the small chance that he did would have probably ended Romney's hopes.

Barring a major scandal (unlikely), I don't see any real possibility for Romney to win Iowa and lose the nomination. He's downplayed it so much that winning there as well as a big win in New Hampshire will likely lead to a 50-state sweep.

If Paul or Santorum wins, it benefits Romney. Anyone but Gingirch winning in Iowa actually benefits Romney, and considering Gingrich's chances in Iowa are very low, there's about a 99% chance Romney will be happy after January 3rd. Santorum would probably be the best of the two, as he has virtually no chance in New Hampshire, and him winning would turn South Carolina into a battleground with Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry all splitting the conservative vote. That'd probably be enough, considering the momentum he'd have after New Hampshire and his string of endorsements, for Romney to squeeze through. And once he had those three, he'd likely easily win in Florida as well.

Now, Paul winning Iowa would be interesting. Probably the most important thing for Romney then would be how Gingrich places - a 5th or 6th would dampen the Gingrich campaign even more. I believe that once anti-Gingrich ads start hitting the airwaves in SC and FL, his lead there is going to evaporate. Paul winning Iowa would likely turn this into a three-person race, though considering his cash, Perry will probably make a strong play for South Carolina as his last stand. Paul winning Iowa could also help Romney, as many would be worried of a potential Paul nomination, and unite behind the person best suited to beat him.

Caucus night is going to be big, but I don't think it'll be nearly as nerve-wracking for Romney supporters this time as it was 4 years ago, when we absolutely needed either a win or a close second there.

[tmthforu94]

Anyone but Gingirch winning in Iowa actually benefits Romney,

Disagree - then again, I've always doubted the potency of the Gingrich campaign. Romney would probably prefer that Paul or Bachmann takes the caucuses, but Santorum or Perry winning Iowa could make the campaign more difficult for Romney than a Gingrich victory would have.

Are you sure about that? Santorum or Perry winning would give the momentum to make it a race in South Carolina, where they would likely draw most of their support from Gingrich, turning what is currently a two man race there into a three person race. Gingrich winning Iowa would solidify his position as a frontrunner and make it essentially a two-person race in South Carolina and Florida. While Romney still would have a shot, I think it'd be hard for him to win either against only Gingrich. Meh.

[tmthforu94]

I can't imagine how this many can carry the Family Values banner into the General Election against Obama...scum of the Earth.

Not too much longer until we can forget about Newt and focus on taking down Obama with Governor Romney as our nominee.