1992 and on timeline

[pillage the village, trash the scene]

Great timeline GP!

Go Lugar!

[GPORTER]

Welcome back. We were talking earlier about the possibility of republicans turning back the projection of democratic senate control. This coming projection all but confirms that the democrats will retain control of the united states senate. Tim Johnson wins the senate race in South Dakota and he picks up a senate seat for the democrats.

Tim Johnson Wins South Dakota Senate Election

Now, unless a democratic call is reversed, it is impossible for republicans to win control of the senate in the 1996 elections. More to come.

[GPORTER]

At the 11 o'clock hour, we can declare three things. First of all, the race in Oregon to succeed retiring republican senator Mark Hatifeld is too close to call at this hour. But in Nevada, senator Lugar will carry that state tonight. And at the gubernatorial desk, Gary Locke will win the state house in Washington state, a hold for the democrats.

Gary Locke Wins Washington Gubernatorial Election

Richard Lugar Wins Nevada

Lugar: 227        Dukakis: 178        270 needed to win

Its not very encouraging news for the Dukakis/Kerrey camp seeing that California, Washington, and Oregon are all too close to call.

Hawaii is too close to call as well. We can now declare Colorado for Lugar. The state of Colorado votes for Richard Lugar.

Richard Lugar Wins Colorado

Lugar: 235        Dukakis: 178        270 needed to win

[GPORTER]

We can declare the state of Oregon for governor Dukakis. Oregon for Dukakis.

Michael Dukakis Wins Oregon

And in a major projection for governor Dukakis, we can declare the state of California for Dukakis. The big state of California goes to Dukakis.

Michael Dukakis Wins California

Hold on, the state of Hawaii goes to Dukakis as well.


Michael Dukakis Wins Hawaii

Lugar: 235        Dukakis: 243        270 needed to win

At this pretty late stage of the game, Lugar fights to hold his lead and he does. Tennnessee goes to Lugar.

Richard Lugar Wins Tennessee

Lugar: 246        Dukakis: 243        270 needed to win

Keep an eye on this close race, were coming right back.

[GPORTER]

We have another projection in Washington state. Dukakis wins Washington state.

Michael Dukakis Wins Washington

Lugar: 246        Dukakis: 254        270 needed to win

And the final polls are now closing across America. We can declare that Richard Lugar will win the state of Alaska and Ted Stevens wins reelection to the united states senate from Alaska.

Richard Lugar Wins Alaska

Ted Stevens Wins Alaska

Lugar: 249        Dukakis: 254        270 needed to win

More to come.

[Senator Snowstalker]

I would laugh if Lugar won.

[GPORTER]

I would laugh if Lugar won.

What would you expect from a possible Dukakis administration in the mid to late 1990s?

[hawkeye59]

Lugar or Dukakis winning would be ridiculous.
Dukakis because it's been 8 years and he hasn't held political office for 5
and Lugar because.... 20 years of Republicans? Really?

[Senator Kalwejt]

Lugar or Dukakis winning would be ridiculous.
Dukakis because it's been 8 years and he hasn't held political office for 5
and Lugar because.... 20 years of Republicans? Really?

Don't worry. Lugar will face tough reelection battle in 2000 against Walter Mondale and his running-mate, George McGovern - a strong ticket for Democrats.

[Mynheer Peeperkorn von Thurn und Taxis-Hohenlohe]

Go Lugar!

[GPORTER]

We can declare a winner in the Oregon senate election. The republicans hold that seat as Gordon Smith will win that race.

Gordon Smith Wins Oregon Senate Election

[GPORTER]

...and Arkansas, the home state of governor Bill Clinton, will go to Dukakis tonight.

Michael Dukakis Wins Arkansas

Lugar: 249        Dukakis: 260        270 needed to win

I think we can safely say that senator Lugar has fallen behind in the electoral vote count now. Michael Dukakis is only ten electoral votes away from the White House. A huge shift from earlier in the evening. Lets make another declarartion, democrats retain control of the house of representatives.

Democrats Retain Control of the House of Representatives

We still have more coming up on election night 1996. Stay with us

[GPORTER]

We have another projection. We are ready to project, that Michael Dukakis will be the next President of the United States. Michigan falls into the Dukakis column and that is it. Michael Dukakis, when all the votes are in and counted, will succeed George HW Bush and become the 42nd President of the United States of America.


Michael Dukakis Wins Michigan

Michael Dukakis Wins Presidency of the United States of America

Lugar: 249        Dukakis: 278        270 needed to win

We will come back with commentary on this historic projection soon.

[Senator Kalwejt]

It doesn't make sense whether Lugar or Dukakis wins.

Dukakis simply won't be even seriously considered for nomination, eight years after he lost in landslide after leading by double-dights until summer 1988.

Lugar wouldn't be more plausible, because there was no earthy way Republicans would control the White House for straight 20 years.

[Mynheer Peeperkorn von Thurn und Taxis-Hohenlohe]

We have another projection. We are ready to project, that Michael Dukakis will be the next President of the United States. Michigan falls into the Dukakis column and that is it. Michael Dukakis, when all the votes are in and counted, will succeed George HW Bush and become the 42nd President of the United States of America.


Michael Dukakis Wins Michigan

Michael Dukakis Wins Presidency of the United States of America

Lugar: 249        Dukakis: 278        270 needed to win

We will come back with commentary on this historic projection soon.

Nooooo

What would you expect from a possible Dukakis administration in the mid to late 1990s?

Failure. Next election is a republican landslide.

[GPORTER]

Conclusion of 1996 Elections

President:

Lugar: 260        Dukakis: 278        270 needed to win

Senate:

Republican: 49          Democrat: 51        51 needed for absolute majority

House:

Republican: 210        Democrat: 225        218 needed for absolute majority

[Senator Kalwejt]

Arkansas being the only Southern state voting for Dukakis is little plausible.

As of Kerrey, while he certainly wouldn't deliver Nebraska at large, I'd at least expect to split it's electoral votes the way it happened in 2008. At least one district.

Regarding congressional elections, Republicans made significant gains, even if they fell short of winning a majority. Again, after 16 years, wouldn't he there some GOP fatigue at least?

Last, but not least, how on earth was Dukakis, after getting buried in 1988 and leaving Governorship with very weak approvals in 1990, was able to win a freaking nomination.

Your timelines always lacks some explanation, Garrison, Perhaps you can enlight us just one time.

Seriously, Garrison, by telling you what's wrong with this TL we're actually trying to help you.

[GPORTER]

Arkansas being the only Southern state voting for Dukakis is little plausible.

As of Kerrey, while he certainly wouldn't deliver Nebraska at large, I'd at least expect to split it's electoral votes the way it happened in 2008. At least one district.

Regarding congressional elections, Republicans made significant gains, even if they fell short of winning a majority. Again, after 16 years, wouldn't he there some GOP fatigue at least?

Last, but not least, how on earth was Dukakis, after getting buried in 1988 and leaving Governorship with very weak approvals in 1990, was able to win a freaking nomination.

Your timelines always lacks some explanation, Garrison, Perhaps you can enlight us just one time.

Seriously, Garrison, by telling you what's wrong with this TL we're actually trying to help you.

An analysis of the presidential and perhaps senatorial results will come shortly.

[GPORTER]

let's take the presidential race by region.

In the east, coming off of a solid bush win in 1992 and the senate gains of 1994, republicans hoped to do better in this region than they did. They thought that if they did well enough in this region, they might be able to put this election away, but with Lugar only carrying one state in the region, that scenario quickly went flat. Not the death nail for republicans, but certainly not a help. Dukakis had great strength in the region as he won all but four electoral votes in the region. Some major east coast wins for Dukakis
Included new jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maine, and Vermont. Only loosing new Hampshire was not bad for the democrats.

In the south, this is a region that is not only a traditionally republican strong hold, but at the same time, a region where Dukakis did very poorly in 1988, when he lost nationwide to outgoing president George HW Bush. This gives explanation for the strong showing of Lugar especially in the deep south. Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas, and in some polls, Louisiana were seen as the battleground states going into election night. The Dukakis people were optimistic about the region going into election night, but it was clear early in the evening that while their numbers improved in the region from eight years ago, the republicans would still have a strong hold on the south. Arkansas, the home state of Bill Clinton, was the only southern state to go democrat at the presidential level.

In Midwest and farm states, Lugar won easily in most of the farm states. The Midwest is historically a clear battle ground region in presidential elections and it was this time. Lugar won some key states of Ohio and Kentucky, but Dukakis did well enough especially in Illinois and Michigan to stay in the race.

I'll return with an analysis of the west coming up. I welcome your comments on the analysis up to this point.

[GPORTER]

Should this timeline end now or would you prefer it continue? I do have some other timeline ideas for future timelines.

[Senator Kalwejt]

I still want to understand how on earth did the Democratic Party nominate a dude who just eight years ago lost in landslide, despite initial great prognosis?

[Senator Snowstalker]

Still better than "Hoover reelected in 1932"

[Mynheer Peeperkorn von Thurn und Taxis-Hohenlohe]

Should this timeline end now or would you prefer it continue? I do have some other timeline ideas for future timelines.

What ideas?

[pillage the village, trash the scene]

Continue!

[GPORTER]

BREAKING NEWS: PRESIDENT SERIOUSLY WOUNDED IN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT
Good afternoon this is CBS news, we have breaking news for you at this time. President Dukakis and North Carolina senate hopeful John Edwards have both been wounded in an attempted assassination in Raleigh, North Carolina. President Dukakis was there campaigning with Edwards in North Carolina today. Edwards is challenging incumbent republican senator Lauch Faircloth in the senate race there this year.

Dukakis and Edwards were working a rope line at an event when shots rang out. The secret service quickly removed the two from the scene and took them to the nearest hospital. The only report we have as of now is that Dukakis and Edwards were both wounded by the gunfire. Both are said to be in serious condition.

Again President Dukakis shot today along with North Carolina democratic senate hopeful John Edwards in North Carolina. Both are seriously wounded. We will bring you more information as it comes in. Stay tuned.