Unemployment 8.6%

[NHI]

http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/money/business_news/national-unemployment-rate-falls-8.6-percent,-lowest-level-since-march-2009

After watching Chris Matthews last night on Hardball talk of how the economy is improving; Democrats will be jumping out of their skin at this one. I can't wait to hear the spin.

[NHI]

I will say however, these are the best numbers since March of 2009, but I do not believe that we're out of the woods just yet.

[Yank2133]

At least I don't have to hear "Obama is presiding over 9.0% unemployment....blah blah."......at least for one month.

[NHI]

At least I don't have to hear "Obama is presiding over 9.0% unemployment....blah blah."......at least for one month.

I think those days maybe coming to an end. There could be another spike, but if I had to wager a bet I would say the unemployment rate will be around 8.6% in November 2012.

[sg0508]

Any gov't number is nonsense.  What's the real unemployment right (i.e. that includes those that are structurally unemployed, have given up looking or who don't work 40 hrs per week?)

It's probably 20-25%.  Disgusting.

Let's keep outsourcing jobs though to save $$$.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I will say however, these are the best numbers since March of 2009, but I do not believe that we're out of the woods just yet.

No doubt, but part of the economic malaise is an issue of confidence, and this could be the turn around.

[anvi]

I certainly am hoping that this bodes better times.  But, for the moment, the lower unemployment number looks like a pretty mixed bag,  Along with hirings in the past month, the previous two months' hiring figures were revised upward, so this means, as far as good news goes, that hiring in the last quarter has been consistently better than earlier in the year.  And I suppose some will take it as a marginally good sign that private employers are hiring while governments are laying off workers.  But many of the newest jobs could be transient holiday ones, since the biggest gains were among retailers, and this may especially be the case without continued growth and if the European crisis gets out of hand.  The worst thing of all about the lower unemployment number is the degree to which it's a mathematical result of 315,000 people dropping out of the labor force because of long-term unemployment, so the lower number doesn't really represent strong and significant gains in the labor market overall.

[courts]

Any gov't number is nonsense.  What's the real unemployment right (i.e. that includes those that are structurally unemployed, have given up looking or who don't work 40 hrs per week?)

It's probably 20-25%.  Disgusting.

Let's keep outsourcing jobs though to save $$$.

It's about 16% according to the Fed, Yahoo and Breitbart (yes I know, shut up) reported on it awhile ago. Anyway, it's beyond obvious the number fell because people just stopped being counted given that you need 150,000 new jobs per month just to break even.

[sg0508]

The issue is, and this comes right from my own company even..there is just a ton of uncertainty right now. In addition, it's an employer's market.  They have all the power and all the chips.  They dictate everything.  They expect one person now to do the jobs of two or three and work longer hours.  That's the new norm folks. 

I've even had top Managers tell me that there is no way they are hiring people domestically who they have to pay a decent salary, plus retirement, healthcare, etc when they can hire someone in India for $2/hr and work them 14 hours per day for often better quality service. 

This is what it is folks.  Read that.  Very scary.

[NHI]

The issue is, and this comes right from my own company even..there is just a ton of uncertainty right now. In addition, it's an employer's market.  They have all the power and all the chips.  They dictate everything.  They expect one person now to do the jobs of two or three and work longer hours.  That's the new norm folks. 

I've even had top Managers tell me that there is no way they are hiring people domestically who they have to pay a decent salary, plus retirement, healthcare, etc when they can hire someone in India for $2/hr and work them 14 hours per day for often better quality service. 

This is what it is folks.  Read that.  Very scary.

[King]

Those "real" unemployment rates are just circlejerk lies. Unemployment is not about 10%. I live in a dirt poor area and 1 in 4 people I meet here are not unemployed. 1 in 10? Very likely, but "people who gave up" is not double people still trying. You don't just "give up" on having a livelihood.

[J. J.]

Very good news for Obama.

Moderately good news for the economy.

One question is, has the economy turned the corner?  Improving numbers through June (and I'd include the misery index in those numbers) would be very good political news for Obama.  A slump in the same period, or even static numbers would not.

[The Vorlon]

The headline number (Drop to 8.6%) is good news.  

I am sure the Obama folks and the media will spin that number really hard, and to the degree it can become a narrative it is good in that it may improve the general level of confidence in the economy.  There is a $h*tload of cash on the sidelines, and to the degree confidence improves, some of this capital may reenter the economy.

The bad news is that 315,000 folks just simply gave up looking, so the drop is a statistical quirk not a real reflection of actual gains.

With the revised upward numbers from the previous two months, the economy is in reality more or less at a break even point - new jobs being created more or less equaling the increase in persons in the workforce.

I suspect that the "headline number" will stay pretty constant for a while - if we get a spurt of job growth, the spurt will be masked by previously discouraged workers rejoining the workforce. (and vica versa, if growth goes south, discouraged workers will rise)

An interesting question is how many of the long term unemployed (ie nearing the 99 week unemployment Insurance limit) have just gone off the books and are working in the underground economy?

In Europe (Italy is the poster child for this) the real number of folks with a job is a fair bit bigger than the "official" one - As US policies converge with those of Europe, it will be interesting to see if the underground economy grows to also match European levels.

[Simfan34]

The issue is, and this comes right from my own company even..there is just a ton of uncertainty right now. In addition, it's an employer's market.  They have all the power and all the chips.  They dictate everything.  They expect one person now to do the jobs of two or three and work longer hours.  That's the new norm folks. 

I've even had top Managers tell me that there is no way they are hiring people domestically who they have to pay a decent salary, plus retirement, healthcare, etc when they can hire someone in India for $2/hr and work them 14 hours per day for often better quality service. 

This is what it is folks.  Read that.  Very scary.

Is this country doomed permanently? I fear so. Service economy- hah! Here is your service economy.

[Person Man]

The headline number (Drop to 8.6%) is good news.  

I am sure the Obama folks and the media will spin that number really hard, and to the degree it can become a narrative it is good in that it may improve the general level of confidence in the economy.

The bad news is that 315,000 folks just simply gave up looking, so the drop is a statistical quirk not a real reflection of actual gains.

With the revised upward numbers from the previous two months, the economy is in reality more or less at a break even point - new jobs being created equaling the increase in persons in the workforce.

I suspect that the "headline number" will stay pretty constant for a while - if we get a spurt of job growth, the spurt will be masked by previously discouraged workers rejoining the workforce. (an visa versa, if growth goes south, discouraged workers will rise)

An interesting question is how many of the long term unemployed (ie nearing the 99 week unemployment Insurance limit) have just gone off the books and are working in the underground economy?

In Europe (Italy is the poster child for this) the real number of folks with a job is a fair bit bigger than the "official" one - As US policies converge with those of Europe, it will be interesting to see if the underground economy grows to also match European levels.

Underground economy? That's a good guess. Although, police have reported less crime. Perhaps its a negative feedback loop that's going on. The less legitimate money being made, the lower the tax revenues, the lower the tax revenues, the less cops investigate whores, drugs and tax evaders....or people getting beat up or robbed for that matter. I mean, one of my sister in laws got arrested for being a whore and pimp in Casper a couple of months ago while she was completely under the radar almost everywhere else. The economy in Wyoming is still being propped up by those who make 60 or 70 large a year toiling for Dick Cheney in the oil and coal fields. Its a great way to get and stay in shape and it keeps the local economy very strong.

[pbrower2a]

I will say however, these are the best numbers since March of 2009, but I do not believe that we're out of the woods just yet.

We're not out of the woods yet, but we are seeing more light through the branches.

Look at all that is not creating job growth -- there  is no speculative boom and there is no intensifying war. This is an honest recovery.  

[Roemerista]

No we are not out of the woods yet.

Besides seasonal labour being an obvious plus for the payroll number, remember

Unemployment applications increased to over 400,000 for the first time in over 3 weeks

And 375,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force.

However the spending gluttony that is the holidays may lead to some more permanent work...

[CaDan]

The first editions of the AP story pointed out that it ONLY dropped because 315,000 people stopped looking for work, so they are no longer counted toward unemployment figures.

The AP has now conveniently reworded that information after their overlords in the DNC demanded that they hide it.

[The Vorlon]

The first editions of the AP story pointed out that it ONLY dropped because 315,000 people stopped looking for work, so they are no longer counted toward unemployment figures.

The AP has now conveniently reworded that information after their overlords in the DNC demanded that they hide it.

Pure coincidence.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The first editions of the AP story pointed out that it ONLY dropped because 315,000 people stopped looking for work, so they are no longer counted toward unemployment figures.

The AP has now conveniently reworded that information after their overlords in the DNC demanded that they hide it.

Pure coincidence.

Isn't that what Reagan said too?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Look...voters vote THEIR pocket books, and when the percentage of the population working is shrinking and wages (even before adjustments for inflation) are shrinking...it doesn't matter if Unemployment Rate drops to 2.0%, the voters aren't going to drink the Kool-Aid.

And an economy growing at 2% GDP with NEGATIVE real wage growth will soon become an economy with NEGATIVE GDP growth - a recession.  And that new recession is going to be obvious in 2012Q1 (or 2012Q2, at the very latest), right in time to engineer a landslide against Obama.  In fact, as I pointed out last month, half the GDP growth of Q3 was due to increased spending on medical services and electricity (due to the heat wave).

The negative wage growth (even before inflation), is showing up in both the GDP reports and the employment reports....it's undeniable.

Not to mention, consumers are continuing to pay down debt.  So with shrinking wages and no new debt spending, where is continued growth going to come from?

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

One month of numbers is irrelevant.  What will matter is the trend into the Summer and Fall of 2012. 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The first editions of the AP story pointed out that it ONLY dropped because 315,000 people stopped looking for work, so they are no longer counted toward unemployment figures.

The AP has now conveniently reworded that information after their overlords in the DNC demanded that they hide it.

Pure coincidence.

Isn't that what Reagan said too?

how would you know, you're 19 years old?!  And if someone has told you the Reagan recovery was fake, they you really are to be pittied.  The recovery during the Reagan and Clinton administrations was an absolute gold mine for anyone with markable skills.  Both were very real and broad based, though the IT bubble of 90's made follow through in the 00's tough.

[The Vorlon]

Look...voters vote THEIR pocket books, and when the percentage of the population working is shrinking and wages (even before adjustments for inflation) are shrinking...it doesn't matter if Unemployment Rate drops to 2.0%, the voters aren't going to drink the Kool-Aid.

And an economy growing at 2% GDP with NEGATIVE real wage growth will soon become an economy with NEGATIVE GDP growth - a recession.  And that new recession is going to be obvious in 2012Q1 (or 2012Q2, at the very latest), right in time to engineer a landslide against Obama.  In fact, as I pointed out last month, half the GDP growth of Q3 was due to increased spending on medical services and electricity (due to the heat wave).

The negative wage growth (even before inflation), is showing up in both the GDP reports and the employment reports....it's undeniable.

Not to mention, consumers are continuing to pay down debt.  So with shrinking wages and no new debt spending, where is continued growth going to come from?

Wow.. and I thought I was a pessimist... - I am thinking flat gdp will 2013.....

[courts]

Look...voters vote THEIR pocket books, and when the percentage of the population working is shrinking and wages (even before adjustments for inflation) are shrinking...it doesn't matter if Unemployment Rate drops to 2.0%, the voters aren't going to drink the Kool-Aid.

And an economy growing at 2% GDP with NEGATIVE real wage growth will soon become an economy with NEGATIVE GDP growth - a recession.  And that new recession is going to be obvious in 2012Q1 (or 2012Q2, at the very latest), right in time to engineer a landslide against Obama.  In fact, as I pointed out last month, half the GDP growth of Q3 was due to increased spending on medical services and electricity (due to the heat wave).

The negative wage growth (even before inflation), is showing up in both the GDP reports and the employment reports....it's undeniable.

Not to mention, consumers are continuing to pay down debt.  So with shrinking wages and no new debt spending, where is continued growth going to come from?