The headline number (Drop to 8.6%) is good news.
I am sure the Obama folks and the media will spin that number really hard, and to the degree it can become a narrative it is good in that it may improve the general level of confidence in the economy.
The bad news is that 315,000 folks just simply gave up looking, so the drop is a statistical quirk not a real reflection of actual gains.
With the revised upward numbers from the previous two months, the economy is in reality more or less at a break even point - new jobs being created equaling the increase in persons in the workforce.
I suspect that the "headline number" will stay pretty constant for a while - if we get a spurt of job growth, the spurt will be masked by previously discouraged workers rejoining the workforce. (an visa versa, if growth goes south, discouraged workers will rise)
An interesting question is how many of the long term unemployed (ie nearing the 99 week unemployment Insurance limit) have just gone off the books and are working in the underground economy?
In Europe (Italy is the poster child for this) the real number of folks with a job is a fair bit bigger than the "official" one - As US policies converge with those of Europe, it will be interesting to see if the underground economy grows to also match European levels.
Underground economy? That's a good guess. Although, police have reported less crime. Perhaps its a negative feedback loop that's going on. The less legitimate money being made, the lower the tax revenues, the lower the tax revenues, the less cops investigate whores, drugs and tax evaders....or people getting beat up or robbed for that matter. I mean, one of my sister in laws got arrested for being a whore and pimp in Casper a couple of months ago while she was completely under the radar almost everywhere else. The economy in Wyoming is still being propped up by those who make 60 or 70 large a year toiling for Dick Cheney in the oil and coal fields. Its a great way to get and stay in shape and it keeps the local economy very strong.
