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Author Topic: France, alternate elections - requests  (Read 4538 times)
Antonio V
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« Reply #25 on: December 14, 2011, 10:40:04 am »
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That's a pretty strange map... Can you tell us more about the details ? I guess working class areas (Nord, Haute-Normandie, Lorraine) are strong NDP areas, so are rural areas of progressive tradition (Limousin et al), but what's up with Liberal strength in the Southwest ? Overall, they should be concentrated in cities (indeed there are a few red spots).

Great map anyways. Some other alternate-country scenari should be fun (UK 2010, Germany 2005, Spain 2008, Ireland 2011, Switzerland 2011, Denmark 2011... my favorite should probably be Italy 1976 Wink)

As I touched on, I imagine the Radical SW to be a Liberal base. My theory is founded on a tradition of individual land-ownership, historical protest at a political elite which would probably be Tory, anti-clericalism. Champagne would probably have been Liberal for similar reasons up until the 1950s or something. Landes might be wrong though, it's a place of heavy sharecropping and might be more NDP instead.

I see, that's original but it makes sense. Wink


Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.



What a horrendous map... Tongue Not very surprising, though. I'd like to see a 3-way tie between parliamentary left, parliamentary right and FN, based on an election like 2002, 1997 legislative or 1995, whatever you prefer. Smiley
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« Reply #26 on: December 14, 2011, 11:13:24 am »
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Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.



What a horrendous map... Tongue Not very surprising, though. I'd like to see a 3-way tie between parliamentary left, parliamentary right and FN, based on an election like 2002, 1997 legislative or 1995, whatever you prefer. Smiley

I found it interesting that Longwy would have voted Chirac over Le Pen.

I'll see what I can do a UNS based on 2002 or 1997. I might actually take the Le Pen wins to a timeline where the FN then wins the legislative elections Smiley
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« Reply #27 on: December 14, 2011, 11:18:32 am »
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Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.


Thanks!
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« Reply #28 on: December 14, 2011, 08:31:23 pm »
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It's interesting how badly Le Pen did throughout all of Paris. I would have thought that he could have done relatively well in areas with a lot of immigrants.
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« Reply #29 on: December 15, 2011, 12:42:54 am »
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Excellent maps!

Two requests, good sir:

Would you be able to do Kennedy versus Nixon? (1960)

Also, would you be able to do Gore versus Nader? (2000)
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« Reply #30 on: December 15, 2011, 12:17:43 pm »
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It's interesting how badly Le Pen did throughout all of Paris. I would have thought that he could have done relatively well in areas with a lot of immigrants.

The whites who live in parts of Paris with the most non-whites often tend to be more well-off than we think or gentrified bobos. That being said, the FN in 2002 still generally polled well in those places.
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« Reply #31 on: December 15, 2011, 01:14:11 pm »
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Wait, are you using any math here, or just coloring in random places?
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« Reply #32 on: December 15, 2011, 01:25:21 pm »
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Wait, are you using any math here, or just coloring in random places?

As I said, that map was based on UNS.
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« Reply #33 on: December 15, 2011, 06:06:38 pm »
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Here's gay marriage at 57% support:



Making heads or tails of which places would vote NO was really hard. I assumed the most rural Catholic places and rural right-wing places in the east.

My next project is France with Canadian parties (sans Bloc).

Thanks, that's really interesting! I tried to make one related to an old thread but it was really difficult to figure out...

I just wonder why do you think the rather right-wing Charentes-Maritimes would vote more in favor of same-sex marriage than the more urban and left-wing Vienne? I also have a hard time understanding why Savoie would be that socially liberal (more than 60% in favor of gay marriage here, really?) and on the other hand I'm a little skeptical about the "no" vote in Aveyron and Cantal, but that's not a very educated guess Wink .

What do you think a death penalty referendum map would look like? I'm not asking you another map, but I really don't know if we would find the same rural vs. urban divide in this case...

Yeah, maybe Vienne should be above 60%, but Charentes-Maritimes is above 60% because of La Rochelle. I've always felt Savoie to be way more socially left-wing than it is economically, but I might be wrong on the intensity of support. I don't really know how bourgeois snobs would react to gay marriage: would it be "meh, who cares" or "cool" or "Sainte mere de Dieu! Teh gays!"

Mmmm, maybe Aube, Manche and even Moselle and Alpes-Maritimes would be "no" areas. Jura could be contested too.
Aveyron may be just in favour of "yes". Aisne too.
Haute-Savoie would be more contested.

As for Corsica, honestly, it's very difficult, but there would be a great resistance to gay marriage, I think, whatever political leanings... Tongue
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« Reply #34 on: December 15, 2011, 06:09:16 pm »
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Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.



What a horrendous map... Tongue Not very surprising, though. I'd like to see a 3-way tie between parliamentary left, parliamentary right and FN, based on an election like 2002, 1997 legislative or 1995, whatever you prefer. Smiley

I found it interesting that Longwy would have voted Chirac over Le Pen.

I'll see what I can do a UNS based on 2002 or 1997. I might actually take the Le Pen wins to a timeline where the FN then wins the legislative elections Smiley

Wobnderful and amazing map, Hash ! Thanks a lot !

Le Pen's weakness in Val-de-Marne is striking.
And Garonne valley is still fascinating.
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« Reply #35 on: December 15, 2011, 06:15:14 pm »
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I've just found this fantastic thread and, of course, I have some ideas, GREAT ones, of course Grin

Chaban-Delmas vs Mitterrand 1974 (with a razor-thin margin, like in RL)

Barre vs Mitterrand 1988 (with a national result a bit more balanced than in reality, whatever the final winner)

Giscard d'Estaing vs Rocard 1981 (with a national result similar to the real one)

Pompidou vs Mends-France 1969 (Pompidou small winner, for example)

Bayrou vs Royal 2007 (not so easy...) (let's say with Bayrou winning as great as Sarkozy)

Sarkozy vs Bayrou 2007 (same overall result)
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« Reply #36 on: December 15, 2011, 06:28:36 pm »
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And if you are really bored (Wink), a 1st-round Delors in 1995 would be fine, as a 1st-round Mends-France in 1965.

A Coluche in 1981 would be very challenging: some sort of Laguiller+Le Pen in terms of relative strength ?
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« Reply #37 on: December 15, 2011, 11:29:09 pm »
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Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.



What does "ASB" mean?
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« Reply #38 on: December 21, 2011, 01:15:23 pm »
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My source has returned!

Here's Chaban-Mitterrand



I make most of these maps using a mix of personal common sense and then create a variable in the CDSP's mapping tool. In this case, I've applied a UNS in the first round to give Chaban 24.5% and Giscard 23%. I then tweaked things a bit assuming a strong Giscard transfer to Chaban and some 1% from Royer (a poor transfer) and added a final UNS to that to give 50.5% to Chaban. The final result is a pretty amusing half-assed return of the old Gaullist map losing the working-class north but saving the Occupied Zone along the Atlantic.

Savoie, Marne, Seine-et-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine, Haute-Saone, Belfort, Jura, Landes and Puy de Dome are pretty much on a knife's edge.
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« Reply #39 on: December 21, 2011, 01:40:35 pm »
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Would you be able to do Kennedy versus Nixon? (1960)

This was a very interesting challenge, because of Kennedy's Catholicism and the fact that French politics in 1960 were basically structured along religious clerical-anticlerical lines. Kennedy being Catholic and not a CINO (well, yeah, we f**cked a lot, but the Kennedys were pretty Papist) at that would have done very well in France. Here's my idea of a Kennedy victory, perhaps at 51-52% or whereabouts:



Basically Kennedy does phenomenally well in Catholic working-class areas, holds non-Catholic working-class areas and the traditional "Democratic base" in the old otl Communist C. Alsace, Bretagne, Anjou, Maine are hard to determine: would they remain wary of the traditionally anticlerical Democrats or would they embrace the Catholic Kennedy?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #40 on: December 21, 2011, 02:25:59 pm »
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Very interesting maps. Smiley
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« Reply #41 on: January 06, 2012, 03:34:57 am »
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My source has returned!

Here's Chaban-Mitterrand



I make most of these maps using a mix of personal common sense and then create a variable in the CDSP's mapping tool. In this case, I've applied a UNS in the first round to give Chaban 24.5% and Giscard 23%. I then tweaked things a bit assuming a strong Giscard transfer to Chaban and some 1% from Royer (a poor transfer) and added a final UNS to that to give 50.5% to Chaban. The final result is a pretty amusing half-assed return of the old Gaullist map losing the working-class north but saving the Occupied Zone along the Atlantic.

Savoie, Marne, Seine-et-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine, Haute-Saone, Belfort, Jura, Landes and Puy de Dome are pretty much on a knife's edge.

ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC !
REALLY !
It's already a very "modern" map for the time. I like it.

Is Lot-et-Garonne also on the edge ?
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« Reply #42 on: January 06, 2012, 05:08:43 am »
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I'd like to second two scenarios
-Rocard vs. VGE (1981)
-1995 with Delors
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« Reply #43 on: February 07, 2012, 12:26:23 pm »
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Sorry for not taking up remaining requests, but one day, I will. In the meantime, since it's primary flavour in the US, what if France could vote in the US primaries?

I'm assuming basically a national primary, a mix of France being the US - thus the French results reflecting otl results - and France being part of the US - thus a normal primary state. I'm assuming a fairly closed primary electorate composed of:
Reps: NC, UMP, most of the FN and MPF
Dem: MD, EELV, PRG, most of the PS, some Commies, few Trots

I make an effort to give at least one win to each major candidate which is in consideration.

To kick off with the 2012 GOP primaries:


Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann are not taken into account.

I can take requests for past primaries.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #44 on: February 07, 2012, 12:47:29 pm »
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Aren't you a big generous with Gingrich ? I know there was a thread about his being a typical French politician, but policy-wise I'd still have a hard time seeing him so strong among moderate "pompidolian" right-wingers in the center. In his stead, Santorum could fare a little better in catholic France.

Why are Meuse and Haute-Marne supporting Paul ?


Anyways, I'd like to see more of those primary maps.
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« Reply #45 on: February 07, 2012, 01:21:16 pm »
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Aren't you a big generous with Gingrich ? I know there was a thread about his being a typical French politician, but policy-wise I'd still have a hard time seeing him so strong among moderate "pompidolian" right-wingers in the center. In his stead, Santorum could fare a little better in catholic France.

Why are Meuse and Haute-Marne supporting Paul ?


Anyways, I'd like to see more of those primary maps.

In RL, Romney would win a landslide, but I'm kind of trying to create a map close to otl American results. But, yes, I might have overestimated Gingrich there, but it isn't natural Romster land - its right-wingers are rural and not affluent moderate suburbanites.

A part of the FN electorate, specifically the hybrid type (type 2-3 hybrid) would be quite favourable to Paul. A conservative-libertarian half-populist candidate like Paul would be a good fit for 'isolated' rural areas in parts of the diagonale du vide where there's a strong anti-elitist and populist sentiment. It's perhaps not all that unlike Coos or Arostook Counties...
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« Reply #46 on: February 07, 2012, 01:24:11 pm »
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Aren't you a big generous with Gingrich ? I know there was a thread about his being a typical French politician, but policy-wise I'd still have a hard time seeing him so strong among moderate "pompidolian" right-wingers in the center. In his stead, Santorum could fare a little better in catholic France.

Why are Meuse and Haute-Marne supporting Paul ?


Anyways, I'd like to see more of those primary maps.

In RL, Romney would win a landslide, but I'm kind of trying to create a map close to otl American results. But, yes, I might have overestimated Gingrich there, but it isn't natural Romster land - its right-wingers are rural and not affluent moderate suburbanites.

A part of the FN electorate, specifically the hybrid type (type 2-3 hybrid) would be quite favourable to Paul. A conservative-libertarian half-populist candidate like Paul would be a good fit for 'isolated' rural areas in parts of the diagonale du vide where there's a strong anti-elitist and populist sentiment. It's perhaps not all that unlike Coos or Arostook Counties...

I see. Nice experiment anyways, I hope more will follow.
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« Reply #47 on: February 07, 2012, 01:29:50 pm »
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I'll bore you a bit with the 2008 GOP primaries before publishing 2008 Dem primaries.



Rudy Giuliani is not taken into account.

A note on Corsica: I've just assumed they'd vote for the establishment candidate. It's too hard otherwise.
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« Reply #48 on: February 07, 2012, 01:30:53 pm »
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Other GOP maps:

2000

Forbes, Bauer and Keyes are obviously not taken into account.

1976

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« Reply #49 on: February 07, 2012, 02:30:43 pm »
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Here's an amusing one: 1968 D, assuming a Gene vs. Bobby contest.



Being generous with McCarthy... RFK would win a landslide in a 'French primary'
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