Is it all over for Romney?

[King]

Romney needed the field split as much as possible early.  Cain and Paul were the only two come close to having a split effect.  With just Paul, Gingrich might be breaking 50% in some state polls already.

The only remaining hope for a vote-splitter is Huntsman, and he'll take away equally from Romney and Gingrich if that happened.

[Averroës Nix]

Romney needed the field split as much as possible early.  Cain and Paul were the only two come close to having a split effect.  With just Paul, Gingrich might be breaking 50% in some state polls already.

I think that the assumption that more than 1/4 to 1/3 of Republican voters are willing to to support any non-libertarian, non-moderate candidate other than Romney in the primaries is misguided and unjustified.

Individual primaries tend to come down to 2 or 3 candidates anyway, so I'm not buying that Cain's downfall and subsequent withdrawal substantially harms Romney's chances.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I think part of it will depend on who Cain endorses.  He'll probably endorse Bachmann or Gingrich, but he likes Romney too.

[Torie]

F no. 

[sg0508]

Absolutely not.  That being said, he MUST win NH if you ask me.  If he loses NH, I think his campaign will lose steam quickly.  That's "his" state and lynchpin.

[Zarn]

No, Paul and Huntsman are strong enough. They are not anti-Romneys per say, but they can take up chunks of the party. Also, Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum can soak up some votes.

[Bacon King]

Not at all. Even if he loses every January primary, Mitt has the money and the determination to do a Hillary-style campaign until the bitter end.

[Skill and Chance]

No, Paul and Huntsman are strong enough. They are not anti-Romneys per say, but they can take up chunks of the party. Also, Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum can soak up some votes.

Huntsman pulls almost unanimously from Romney.  You can see Gingrich trying to prop him up right now.  Romney really needs to foster a Perry recovery.  No idea who Paul hurts more, and I'm rather inclined to believe that his hardcore supporters wouldn't come out for anyone else...

[Chaddyr23]

Absolutely not. Gingrich has more too lose than Romney has to win with these early states. There's quite a while till Super Tuesday and Romney's bound to do well in the larger states and that'll give more time for him to gaffe. Romney is in it for the long haul. Also, regarding Paul. Seems like the handful of Paulinites I know say they'll either vote Obama or not at all. lol.

[milhouse24]

Romney should win NH.  It will all come down to South Carolina as usual, even if Romney wins Nevada.  I still think Newt will implode, perhaps Newt and Perry split the southern vote in SC, allowing Romney (like McCain) to win SC. 

I think a Romney/JEB ticket would be unstoppable, or a Romney/DeMint ticket.

[Yank2133]

Anything can happen.....but his campaign seems to be getting anxious.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69706.html

[Vote UKIP!]

When it comes down to it, roughly 70% of the party does not want Romney.

Period.

Pawlenty, Bachmann, Perry, Cain all had their time in the sun. Why? Because conservative Tea Partiers do not trust Romney.

True, Republicans want to win, but they want to win with their candidate. Not the establishment's. They saw how John McCain, the ideal establishment, moderate candidate who used his fiery temper more against Republicans than he did Democrats, lost utterly to Obama. They don't want the same thing to happen again.

Don't underestimate the possible negative effects of a Romney ticket. Many conservatives will simply stay at home (I will not). The Obama campaign will hammer home that Romneycare WAS the model for Obamacare. They will also hammer home Romney's numerous flip-flops when he ran for various offices. A Ron Paul candidacy might appeal to many Tea Partiers.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I hope my ironic man Perry can make a comeback. He still has a big warchest, so it's in the cards.

[RogueBeaver]

I hope my ironic man Perry can make a comeback. He still has a big warchest, so it's in the cards.

Heh, even Erickson thinks Perry will get a second look and flub it. Though if Romney gets the nomination, EE's C4P-style meltdown will be absolutely hilarious.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Romney should win NH.  It will all come down to South Carolina as usual, even if Romney wins Nevada.  I still think Newt will implode, perhaps Newt and Perry split the southern vote in SC, allowing Romney (like McCain) to win SC. 

I think a Romney/JEB ticket would be unstoppable, or a Romney/DeMint ticket.

Why anyone thinks DeMint would be interested in being anyone's running mate is beyond me.  But also, of the probable swing states in a close election, the only one in which DeMint might be more helpful than a generic Republican is Iowa, and I think he would be a detriment compared to a generic Republican in New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Colorado.  He might well boost the national margin in the PV, but that doesn't get him the Naval Observatory.

[Mehmentum]

Anything can happen.....but his campaign seems to be getting anxious.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69706.html

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I know many older people don't know how to use this stuff, but it seems so odd to me as a millenial that he doesn't know how to work a smart phone.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I wish I shared torie's optimism, but I can't see any scenario now that he wins it. For whatever reason, the GOP is dead set in losing this election

[sg0508]

When it comes down to it, roughly 70% of the party does not want Romney.

Period.

Pawlenty, Bachmann, Perry, Cain all had their time in the sun. Why? Because conservative Tea Partiers do not trust Romney.

True, Republicans want to win, but they want to win with their candidate. Not the establishment's. They saw how John McCain, the ideal establishment, moderate candidate who used his fiery temper more against Republicans than he did Democrats, lost utterly to Obama. They don't want the same thing to happen again.

Don't underestimate the possible negative effects of a Romney ticket. Many conservatives will simply stay at home (I will not). The Obama campaign will hammer home that Romneycare WAS the model for Obamacare. They will also hammer home Romney's numerous flip-flops when he ran for various offices. A Ron Paul candidacy might appeal to many Tea Partiers.

And you just proved why the GOP is screwed.  They want their "own" candidate, but oops, mainstream moderate America isn't voting for that.  McCain also lost badly because of the economy.  The 2008 race was tight until Lehman went under.  The GOP is beyond screwed.  By the way, DeMint on any ticket would be a DISASTER.  He's known outside of Dixie to be one of the most ignorant Senators we have.

[Sam Spade]

No, but he's got to figure out a way to make his pandering believable to the jmfcsts.  Over the past couple of months, his pandering appears to be getting more unbelievable to anyone with half a brain (not just the jmfcsts), if this is even possible.  As such, I have to think that even if Newt implodes, his support might now even go to Paul or Huntsman before Romney.  And right now, Newt is doing everything right for a Republican primary.

Also, Romney's campaign is apparently run by incompetents, as they were still attacking Perry first and foremost up until a couple of weeks ago, when two months ago it was obvious that only Cain and Newt could be real challengers, and now his campaign incompetents have let it be such that Paul and Huntsman might be viewed ahead of him, as noted above.

I watched most of tonight's silly thing, and if there was one thing you Romney supporters have to tell him, personally or whatever, is to tell him to tape his answer on Obamacare, watch it about a thousand times, and then have him tell himself a thousand times - never, ever give this type of answer, ever again, even if its on the merits of growing squash in Arizona.

[President von Cat]

When it comes down to it, roughly 70% of the party does not want Romney.

Period.

Pawlenty, Bachmann, Perry, Cain all had their time in the sun. Why? Because conservative Tea Partiers do not trust Romney.

True, Republicans want to win, but they want to win with their candidate. Not the establishment's. They saw how John McCain, the ideal establishment, moderate candidate who used his fiery temper more against Republicans than he did Democrats, lost utterly to Obama. They don't want the same thing to happen again.

Don't underestimate the possible negative effects of a Romney ticket. Many conservatives will simply stay at home (I will not). The Obama campaign will hammer home that Romneycare WAS the model for Obamacare. They will also hammer home Romney's numerous flip-flops when he ran for various offices. A Ron Paul candidacy might appeal to many Tea Partiers.

And you just proved why the GOP is screwed.  They want their "own" candidate, but oops, mainstream moderate America isn't voting for that.  McCain also lost badly because of the economy.  The 2008 race was tight until Lehman went under.  The GOP is beyond screwed.  By the way, DeMint on any ticket would be a DISASTER.  He's known outside of Dixie to be one of the most ignorant Senators we have.

Agreed.

Frankly, I'm counting on the GOP to lose this election by nominating a right wing bomb thrower, because that is the only way the party will do soul searching in the wake of the election. A McCain loss empowered and emboldened the radicals in the party and now we're stuck with the f ucking mess you see today. Perhaps if Gingrich can lead the party to a massive rout, sanity will finally prevail.

Or is that being too optimistic? The 2016 bench looks great for the GOP anyhow.

[sg0508]

When it comes down to it, roughly 70% of the party does not want Romney.

Period.

Pawlenty, Bachmann, Perry, Cain all had their time in the sun. Why? Because conservative Tea Partiers do not trust Romney.

True, Republicans want to win, but they want to win with their candidate. Not the establishment's. They saw how John McCain, the ideal establishment, moderate candidate who used his fiery temper more against Republicans than he did Democrats, lost utterly to Obama. They don't want the same thing to happen again.

Don't underestimate the possible negative effects of a Romney ticket. Many conservatives will simply stay at home (I will not). The Obama campaign will hammer home that Romneycare WAS the model for Obamacare. They will also hammer home Romney's numerous flip-flops when he ran for various offices. A Ron Paul candidacy might appeal to many Tea Partiers.

And you just proved why the GOP is screwed.  They want their "own" candidate, but oops, mainstream moderate America isn't voting for that.  McCain also lost badly because of the economy.  The 2008 race was tight until Lehman went under.  The GOP is beyond screwed.  By the way, DeMint on any ticket would be a DISASTER.  He's known outside of Dixie to be one of the most ignorant Senators we have.

Agreed.

Frankly, I'm counting on the GOP to lose this election by nominating a right wing bomb thrower, because that is the only way the party will do soul searching in the wake of the election. A McCain loss empowered and emboldened the radicals in the party and now we're stuck with the f ucking mess you see today. Perhaps if Gingrich can lead the party to a massive rout, sanity will finally prevail.

Or is that being too optimistic? The 2016 bench looks great for the GOP anyhow.

Nope.  The party threw out the rationale minds for special interests and ridiculous social positions.  It's over for the near term. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He's still got some chance, but his 46% odds on Intrade definitely seem too high.

[Yank2133]

No, but he's got to figure out a way to make his pandering believable to the jmfcsts.  Over the past couple of months, his pandering appears to be getting more unbelievable to anyone with half a brain (not just the jmfcsts), if this is even possible.  As such, I have to think that even if Newt implodes, his support might now even go to Paul or Huntsman before Romney.  And right now, Newt is doing everything right for a Republican primary.

Also, Romney's campaign is apparently run by incompetents, as they were still attacking Perry first and foremost up until a couple of weeks ago, when two months ago it was obvious that only Cain and Newt could be real challengers, and now his campaign incompetents have let it be such that Paul and Huntsman might be viewed ahead of him, as noted above.

I watched most of tonight's silly thing, and if there was one thing you Romney supporters have to tell him, personally or whatever, is to tell him to tape his answer on Obamacare, watch it about a thousand times, and then have him tell himself a thousand times - never, ever give this type of answer, ever again, even if its on the merits of growing squash in Arizona.

You know speaking of incompetence, I want to know who bright idea it was on the Romney campaign to release that Obama ad. Seriously for a guy who has a reputation of being untrustworthy, why would you put that ad out?

And on top of that they freely admit and even boast about lying when they are caught as if that what voters want another dishonest politician.

And then they wonder why they can't crack 25%.......

[redcommander]

No, but he seriously needs to come out swinging harder against Gingrich to cause him to have a temper tantrum in the next debate. We all know with Gingrich's personality he is prone to them, and it certainly won't look good for him if he starts screaming at Mitt on national television. All I have to say is that I'm glad some of these states where "flavor of the monthers" seem to do well, don't vote until later in the cycle. If Romney can win New Hampshire, and either win or have Paul win in Iowa, he still has a shot.

[Bacon King]

No, but he seriously needs to come out swinging harder against Gingrich to cause him to have a temper tantrum in the next debate. We all know with Gingrich's personality he is prone to them, and it certainly won't look good for him if he starts screaming at Mitt on national television. All I have to say is that I'm glad some of these states where "flavor of the monthers" seem to do well, don't vote until later in the cycle. If Romney can win New Hampshire, and either win or have Paul win in Iowa, he still has a shot.

Direct attacks on Newt is dangerous territory though. Sure, Newt has a temper, but Romney hasn't been that good at keeping his cool lately either. Gingrich and Romney are both combative people and I could easily an attempted confrontation end in the two of them aggresively stammering and shouting over each other.