Obama and the white vote in a 49-49 election

[Jacobtm]

Imagine the PV is 49-49, meaning the EV comes down to a couple of close states. How will Obama do with White voters? With whites declining as a group, getting Kerry's numbers of 41% of the white vote might actually put Obama over 49%.

Could we see the White vote drop to 70% of the total this cycle? I imagine anti-Obama whites will be quite motivated to vote, but many whites who voted for Obama in '08 might stay home. Maybe not 70%, but a continuing decline at least. 71 seems to be on-trend.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

On paper yes it is very possible for paper for the white vote to fall to 70% of the total electorate, maybe even right below it

The President would probably receive 41% or 40% or the White vote in the scenario you laid out, like the 1988 election split, although I expect the GOP candidate will be right under 60%.

Further explore this would obviously be "white vote based on geographic area".  No doubt the GOP will rack up their white vote in the South; Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana all voted for the GOP candidate in 2008 with 85%+ of the vote.  One state I am really interested in is Colorado, it sticks out in the West as being one of the few states where the President won the white vote by a slim 50%-48% while being completely surrounded by states where the GOP won the White vote by much higher margins